Net Neutrality,Network Capacity,and Innovation at the Edges

We study how net neutrality regulations affect a high‐bandwidth content provider (CP)'s investment incentives to enhance its quality of services in content delivery to end users. We find that the effects crucially depend on whether the CP's entry is constrained by the Internet service provider's network capacity. If the capacity is relatively large, the prioritization reduces the investment as CP's investment and prioritization form substitutes. With limited capacity, however, they become complements and the prioritization can facilitate the entry of congestion‐sensitive content. Our analysis suggests that the optimal policy may call for potentially asymmetric regulations across mobile and fixed networks.     

Uncertainty and the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility. Option-implied volatility is a powerful predictor of future volatility, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. This is consistent with option-implied volatility being largely determined by volatility-informed traders (rather than directional traders) when uncertainty is high. New volatility forecasting models that incorporate such interaction outperform benchmark models, both in- and out-of-sample. The new models also better predict future volatility during the 2008 global financial crisis, for which benchmark models perform poorly. The results are robust to alternative choices of benchmark models, loss functions, and estimation windows.     

Cost-effectiveness of sequential urate lowering therapies for the management of gout in Singapore

Abstract

Aims: Allopurinol is the most common urate lowering therapy (ULT) used to treat gout but may cause life-threatening severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) in a small number of patients. Risk of SCAR is increased for patients with the HLA-B*58:01 genotype. When alternative ULT is required, febuxostat or probenecid are recommended. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-utility analysis of sequential ULT treatment strategies for gout, including strategies with and without HLA-B*58:01 genotyping prior to treatment initiation, with a view to inform optimal gout management in Singapore.

Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed from the Singapore healthcare payer perspective. Reflecting local practice, 12 different treatment strategies containing at least one ULT (allopurinol, febuxostat, probenecid) were evaluated in adults with gout. Response rates (SUA < 6mg/dL) were derived from an in-house network meta-analysis and from published literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated over a 30-year time horizon, with costs and benefits discounted at 3% per annum. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore uncertainties.

Results: Sequential treatment of allopurinol 300?mg/day-allopurinol 600?mg/day-probenecid (“standard of care”) was cost-effective compared to no ULT, with an ICER of SGD1,584/QALY. Allopurinol300-allopurinol600-probenecid-febuxostat sequence compared to allopurinol300-allopurinol600-probenecid had an ICER of SGD11,400/QALY. All other treatment strategies were dominated by preceding strategies. Treatment strategies incorporating HLA-B*58:01 genotyping before ULT use were dominated by the corresponding non-genotyping strategy.

Conclusions: Current standard of care (allopurinol300-allopurinol 600-probenecid) for gout is cost-effective compared with no ULT in the local context. Febuxostat is unlikely to be cost-effective in Singapore at current prices unless it is used last-line.     

Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models,Identification, and Empirical Evidence

Review of Industrial Organization - This paper reviews recent literature on structural models of oligopoly competition where firms have biased beliefs about the primitives of the model—e.g....     

How you see yourself influences your color preference: Effects of self-construal on evaluations of color combinations

The present study examines the role of self-construal in the preference for analogous versus complementary color combinations. The majority of previous research on color has been limited to exploration of single colors. However, designers and marketers often use a mix of colors whose harmony must be taken into consideration, which includes choosing whether to use colors placed next to each other on the color wheel (analogous combination) or to combine colors that are opposite each other (complementary combination). The current study proposes that self-construal influences the perception of and preference for color combinations. Individuals with interdependent self-construals tend to focus on relational similarity and value harmony, whereas individuals with independent self-construals tend to view objects as discrete and disconnected. Accordingly, the authors posited that individuals with interdependent self-construals would be more sensitive to the relationship between two colors and perceive analogous colors as more harmonious, thus preferring brands and products featuring analogous colors to those featuring complementary colors. Contrariwise, individuals with independent self-construals would display indifference in this regard. The hypotheses were confirmed in four studies employing various colors to form analogous and complementary color combinations.     

Destination marketing organization website visitors’ flow experience: an application of Plog’s model of personality

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the relationships among website features (i.e. informativeness, design, and interactivity), flow experience, and the user’s intention to seek and use travel information provided on destination marketing organization (DMO) websites. It incorporates the moderating effects of personality into those relationships. Respondents (n = 433) were asked to visit and explore a DMO website and then to respond as if they were planning to travel to the destination. The results show that three website features relate positively to flow experience and that flow experience contributes to behavioral intention. This study also finds that personality moderates the link between web features (informativeness and interactivity) and flow experience, the implications of which are discussed at the end of the paper.     

GAN-MP hybrid heuristic algorithm for non-convex portfolio optimization problem

Abstract

During recent decades, the traditional Markowitz model has been extended for asset cardinality, active share, and tracking-error constraints, which were introduced to overcome the drawbacks of the original Markowitz model. The resulting optimization problems, however, are often very difficult to solve, whereas those of the original Markowitz model are easily solvable. In order to resolve the portfolio optimization problem for the new extensions, we developed a novel heuristic algorithm that combines GAN (Generative Adversarial Networks) with mathematical programming: the GAN-MP hybrid heuristic algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to bridge neural networks (NN) and mathematical programming to tackle a real-world portfolio optimization problem. Computational experiments with real-life stock data show that our algorithm significantly outperforms the existing non-linear optimization solvers.     

Fertility in Sub‐Saharan African Countries with Consideration to Health and Poverty*

Abstract: Fertility has begun to fall in sub‐Saharan Africa but it remains high on average and particularly for a few countries. This paper examines African fertility using a panel data set of 47 sub‐Saharan countries between 1962 and 2003. Fixed and random country effect estimates are made in models where the explanatory variables are suggested by the theory of the demographic transition as modified by Caldwell (1982) . Special attention is paid to the economic status of women, urbanization, the poverty level, and the health of the population including total health expenditures and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. The results support Caldwell's hypothesis and are generally supportive of hypothesis that a fertility transition is occurring. HIV/AIDS is found to have a negative impact on fertility.     

Balance‐of‐payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979–2002

The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979–2002. This study finds: (1) that for 1979–2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts – the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of a demand‐side approach to the economic growth in China. For time series analyses, a bounds test approach is adopted.     

Competing Risk Model for Technology Credit Fund for Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises

Despite the need to foster a technology‐intensive industry, most Korean SMEs (small and medium‐sized enterprises) are faced with the difficulty of raising funds. To resolve this problem, the government set up the technology credit fund to give loans to enterprises that achieve a certain technology evaluation score. However, many of the recipient SMEs fail to pay back the loans for various reasons. In this paper, we distinguish two causes of default due to owner and company, respectively, using the competing risk model. The proposed prediction models for competing defaults are expected to contribute to the healthy management of technology finance.