Fertility in Sub‐Saharan African Countries with Consideration to Health and Poverty*

Abstract: Fertility has begun to fall in sub‐Saharan Africa but it remains high on average and particularly for a few countries. This paper examines African fertility using a panel data set of 47 sub‐Saharan countries between 1962 and 2003. Fixed and random country effect estimates are made in models where the explanatory variables are suggested by the theory of the demographic transition as modified by Caldwell (1982) . Special attention is paid to the economic status of women, urbanization, the poverty level, and the health of the population including total health expenditures and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. The results support Caldwell's hypothesis and are generally supportive of hypothesis that a fertility transition is occurring. HIV/AIDS is found to have a negative impact on fertility.     

Balance‐of‐payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979–2002

The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979–2002. This study finds: (1) that for 1979–2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts – the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of a demand‐side approach to the economic growth in China. For time series analyses, a bounds test approach is adopted.     

Competing Risk Model for Technology Credit Fund for Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises

Despite the need to foster a technology‐intensive industry, most Korean SMEs (small and medium‐sized enterprises) are faced with the difficulty of raising funds. To resolve this problem, the government set up the technology credit fund to give loans to enterprises that achieve a certain technology evaluation score. However, many of the recipient SMEs fail to pay back the loans for various reasons. In this paper, we distinguish two causes of default due to owner and company, respectively, using the competing risk model. The proposed prediction models for competing defaults are expected to contribute to the healthy management of technology finance.     

An analytic network process approach to partner selection for acquisition and development

To cope with rapid technological change and the increasing R&D costs during a period of decreasing technology and product life cycles, acquisition and development (A&D) has been suggested to be an important method for high-tech firms to achieve higher economic returns. However, few studies have examined the operational problems of choosing a compatible A&D candidate from a pool of potential A&D candidates. To address this limitation, this study proposes an approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) to rank a set of potential A&D candidates within a multivariate set of attributes systematically. A total of 25 criteria were identified and used to construct the ANP model in which the final selection is based on the resulting priorities assigned to the A&D candidates. A case study of a semiconductor manufacturing company was conducted to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. The results indicated that the proposed ANP method can aid in A&D decision-making problems systematically.     

Financial factors in foreign direct investments: A dynamic analysis of international data

In contrast to existing empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) studies that examine the static effects of strategic or real economic variables, this paper focuses on the impacts of financial variables on FDI outflows for four largest industrial countries using dynamic time series methods. The results show that FDI outflows are non-stationary but have a long-run cointegrating relationship with real exchange rates. In addition, there are causal effects of exchange rates on direct investments in the short run. Multivariate cointegration analysis shows the significance of financial channels such as cost of capital and real wealth through which the real exchange rate effects operate. The effects of financial channels are comparable to those of the real wage rate channel. Overall, the present paper provides significant and methodologically consistent international evidence for dynamic interactions between FDIs and financial variables.     

Evaluation of global models

Complicated and sophisticated global models are available and popularly used (but commonly without model evaluation procedures), and hence, the question of how one can evaluate a global model is worth being investigated. We discuss whether or not these global models together can be fully utilized and, if so, how this might be achieved.     

Cross‐licensing and competition

We analyze the competitive effects of bilateral cross‐licensing agreements in a setting with many competing firms. We show that firms can sustain the monopoly outcome if they can sign unconstrained bilateral cross‐licensing contracts. This result is robust to increasing the number of firms who can enter into a cross‐licensing agreement. We also investigate the scenario in which a cross‐licensing contract cannot involve the payment of a royalty by a licensee who decides ex post not to use the licensed technology. Finally, policy implications regarding the antitrust treatment of cross‐licensing agreements are derived.     

Long-term forecasting and evaluation

Looking ahead thirty years is a difficult task, but is not impossible. In this paper we illustrate how to evaluate such long-term forecasts. Long-term forecasting is likely to be dominated by trend curves, particularly the simple linear and exponential trends. However, there will certainly be breaks in their parameter values at some unknown points, so that eventually the forecasts will be unsatisfactory. We investigate whether or not simple methods of long-run forecasting can ever be successful, after one takes into account the uncertainty level associated with the forecasts.     

The Carryover Effect of Customer Satisfaction on Service Quality Focused on Moderating Effect of Customer Trust and Cooperative Orientation

The current study is intended to provide a novel contribution in regards to the relationship between service quality and customer satisfaction by focusing on carryover effects of satisfaction judgment on perceived service quality of the subsequent transaction. In addition, we probe the role of customer trust in the relationship between customer satisfaction and service quality. The results indicate a cycle of customer satisfaction and perceived quality over time, which validates the concept of cycle of satisfaction. The results also indicate trust toward a service provider has a moderating role on the relationship between customer satisfaction and perceived service quality.     

Metaphor as Visual Thinking in Advertising and Its Effects: Focus on Brand Familiarity and Product Involvement

One of advertisers' favorite communication techniques is the visual metaphor. In fact, metaphor usage perennially increases in ad images. This study, which looks at consumers with varying levels of brand familiarity and product involvement, investigates how their attitudes and purchase intentions of are influenced by the persuasive effects of visual metaphors in various advertising conditions. The findings reveal that consumers' attitudes and purchase intentions are enhanced more by visual metaphor-based ads than nonmetaphor-based ads when the advertised product is in a low-involvement product category. Nonmetaphorical ads are found to have a more positive influence with high-involvement products than do metaphorical ads. The results show a significant three-way interaction effect. When the advertised product is in a low-involvement product category, visual metaphors lead to favorable brand evaluations and higher purchase intentions in the ads for a low-familiarity brand. However, nonmetaphors are more persuasive than visual metaphors only for the low familiarity brand in a high-involvement product category. Theoretical and practical implications are addressed in the discussion.