Modelling Intercontinental Tourism Consumption in South Africa: A Systems‐of‐Equations Approach

This paper investigates the pattern of inbound tourists' consumption in South Africa, examining four main intercontinental markets and five different tourism goods. The empirical investigation develops an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and it extends recent research by allowing tourists to base their spending decision on the real effective price differences between South Africa and their home country. The results show that tourist spending in South Africa is a luxury good, and tourists react normally to a change in the relative price of goods. The cross‐price elasticities suggest that the preferences of different markets influence their view of substitutability and complementary effects between various products in South Africa.     

Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution — an evolutionary approach

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.     

The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices

The Philippine government intervenes in the domestic rice market through the imposition of import tariffs and the provision of producer and consumer subsidies. While policymakers are aware that these programmes come with allocative efficiency costs, they justify the programmes on the grounds that they insulate the domestic economy from unexpected price spikes in the international rice market. An interesting matter for policy evaluation is to quantify the insulation benefit that the programmes provide in circumstances of sudden severe import price spikes. To examine this question, we undertake a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation in which the Philippines is subject to an external rice price shock. We find that the insulation benefit of the support programmes under a 2008-like event is worth approximately 0.10% of real consumption. However, the cost of insuring against these price spikes is significant. We estimate the annual cost of the rice market interventions at approximately 0.40% of real consumption.     

Out of Recession?

Britain is emerging uncertainly from recession. This essay looks at the character of the recession, the financial crisis that inaugurated it and the key issues that will dominate the recovery phase. In particular, it argues that the underlying and deeply entrenched political conditions which underpinned the crisis, notably bi-partisan encouragement of a ‘property-owning democracy’, show no signs of abating. Without such a change, a recurrence of the crisis appears highly likely.     

BE/ME and E/P work better than ME/BE or P/E in regressions

Researchers often form ratios of variables to measure firm characteristics, but which ratios create the most powerful tests? For example, if we use ratios of book value of equity (BE) and market value of equity (ME), or earnings (E) and price (P), does it matter which variable appears in the denominator? Any variable in the denominator, when close to zero, creates outliers and is less likely to produce effective tests. Our tests, using data from 1972 to 2008, indicate the choice between reciprocals often produces significantly different outcomes. While ME/BE is a more commonly used control variable than BE/ME or LN(BE/ME), we find the latter two produce better results, even if the data are trimmed to mitigate the outlier problem. Similarly, using E/P generally produces better results than P/E, and while ratios with book value of assets (BA) in the numerator work better than those with it in the denominator, the difference is less pronounced than when BE or E is part of the ratio. While the focus of our empirical findings is on growth measures, the principal applies anytime a ratio has a denominator that is frequently near zero.     

Australian Audit Committees — Do They Meet Best Practice Guidelines?

The paper reports the results of a study of Australia's largest 250 companies' audit committees in two years (1998 and 2001). The audit committees were scrutinised on the bases of audit committee independence and the frequency of meetings. Australia's audit committees did not score highly on either criterion and most companies fell short of best practice guidelines. Further, it was puzzling and of concern that Australian audit committees appear to have deteriorated in terms of independence and frequency of meetings between 1998 and 2001.     

Educational mismatches versus skill mismatches: effects on wages, job satisfaction, and on-the-job search

Education-job mismatches are reported to have serious effectson wages and other labour market outcomes. Such results areoften cited in support of assignment theory, but can also beexplained by institutional and human capital models. To testthe assignment explanation, we examine the relation betweeneducational mismatches and skill mismatches. In line with earlierresearch, educational mismatches affect wages strongly. Contraryto the assumptions of assignment theory, this effect is notexplained by skill mismatches. Conversely, skill mismatchesare much better predictors of job satisfaction and on-the-jobsearch than are educational mismatches.     

Conflict Evolution: Tracking the Middle East Conflict with Drama Theory

The situation in the Middle East has developed through an episodic process in which the protagonists have periodically changed the ‘game’ that they are playing by inventing new options, seeking to eliminate the options available to others, or by raising or eliminating doubts in the minds of others about their intentions. Such conflict evolution is readily captured by the framework of drama theory which goes some way to explaining the pressures motivating such actions. This paper traces the recent development of relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians through a succession of drama theoretic models. The importance of taking note of interactions at several levels is highlighted: stalemate at one level may be dislodged by actions taken in others. It is concluded that any resolution of the confrontations in the Middle East is likely to require the active involvement of the international community but may be destabilised by pressure from internal factions within the key parties.     

What is professional attire today? A conjoint analysis of personal presentation attributes

Personal presentation attributes have long been understood to affect perceptions of competence and capabilities. To that end, this study investigates seven attributes associated with favorable interview presentation, including overall physical attractiveness, neatness and grooming, clothing color, conservative versus trendy attire, professional versus casual attire, and body modification (including tattoos and piercings). Participants (n = 108), including students, faculty, and hospitality industry professionals, sorted an orthogonal array of 16 full-color, laminated cards that contained photos so that respondents could see levels of clothing color, clothing conservativeness, and degree of professional attire. The remaining attributes and their corresponding levels were shown on respective analog indicators. The conjoint analysis results indicate that grooming and professional attire are the most important attributes in shaping favorable perceptions. Furthermore, faculty perceived conservative clothing to be better while students and industry professionals indicated that trendy clothing creates a more favorable presentation on the part of a job candidate.