The impact of advertising content on movie revenues

We analyze the contents of print ads in the motion picture industry (e.g., number of reviews quoted in the ad, the presence of a top reviewer, size of the ad, star, director, etc.). We find that external validation (a recommendation by a top reviewer) is more important to revenues than the informative content of the ad.     

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects in the drift and the diffusion

Consider N independent stochastic processes \((X_i(t), t\in [0,T])\), \(i=1,\ldots , N\), defined by a stochastic differential equation with random effects where the drift term depends linearly on a random vector \(\Phi _i\) and the diffusion coefficient depends on another linear random effect \(\Psi _i\). For these effects, we consider a joint parametric distribution. We propose and study two approximate likelihoods for estimating the parameters of this joint distribution based on discrete observations of the processes on a fixed time interval. Consistent and \(\sqrt{N}\)-asymptotically Gaussian estimators are obtained when both the number of individuals and the number of observations per individual tend to infinity. The estimation methods are investigated on simulated data and show good performances.     

Digitale Spaltung im Zeitalter der S?ttigung

Using Bourdieu??s Habitus-Capital theory and a representative dataset this study shows that social position influences internet use. The study is thus connected to the research about thedigital divide. A secondary analysis of the ACTA 2008 (n?=?7.623, representative of Germans between 14 and 64 years who use the internet) shows on the one hand that there are still gaps in internet usage (gender, generation, and education gap). On the other hand the results indicate acapital gap. Since the accumulation of capital in the internet is connected with education as well as economic status, there is a threat of a downward spiral: Those who have less capital (education, money) gather less internet knowledge. Since cultural capital influences a person??s social position, internet use enhances social inequality.     

Unobserved firm heterogeneity and the size-exports nexus: Evidence from German panel data

This paper starts from the stylized fact that firm size and exporting tends to be positively related. Using large sets of establishment panel data for three different industries from official statistics, evidence is presented that the familiar picture of an export/sales ratio that increases (at a decreasing rate) with firm size vanishes if unobserved firm heterogeneity is controlled for in a fixed-effects fractional logit regression model. This finding is well in line with the fact that many small firms are “hidden export champions.” JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

Coordination in retailer-carrier channels for long term planning

We study a retailer-carrier channel for the purpose of long term planning and coordination. Here, the term channel represents the business interaction between the retailer and the carrier. The retailer sells a particular item with price-dependent demand, whereas the carrier is responsible for transporting the item to the retailer's site. We characterize the profit functions of each channel member as well as the total channel profit. We consider two specific channel structures: (i) the centralized channel and (ii) the decentralized channel. Under the first channel structure, the goal is to set the retail price so as to maximize the total channel profit. Under the latter, the carrier and the retailer choose their own policy parameters, i.e., the freight rate for the carrier and the retail price for the retailer, so as to maximize their individual profits. We model the decentralized channel as a Stackelberg Game and propose a coordination mechanism between the retailer and the carrier in which the retailer signals a price multiplier to the carrier. We illustrate that this mechanism could provide win-win solutions for both parties and present analytical and numerical results on the efficiency of channel coordination. We demonstrate that coordination in retailer-carrier channels can be as promising as supplier-retailer channels. We also discuss the effects of retailer-carrier coordination on inventory levels.     

The role of the entrepreneurial team and the board of directors in the internationalization of academic spin-offs

This study addresses the roles of the entrepreneurial team and the board of directors in the internationalization of academic spin-off companies. The study is based on a quantitative analysis of 109 spin-offs from Norwegian academic institutions. The findings suggest that academic spin-offs are more likely to achieve both international strategic alliances and international sales with entrepreneurial teams having industrial experience that is both highly homogeneous (where each member has work experience in the same industry) and highly diverse (where each member has work experience in different industries) and board members that have diverse functional backgrounds. Firms that are less dependent on networking by board members to increase legitimacy and build relationships with potential foreign customers are more likely to achieve international sales.     

Assessing social support networks in cross-national comparative surveys: Measurement issues

In recent years many cross-national comparative surveys, such as Gender and Generation Programme, International Social Survey Programme, European Quality of Life Survey, or General Social Survey, have included assessment of social support networks. Generally, two approaches were used; the name generator approach and the role relation approach. As more cross-country surveys are conducted every year, it may seem reasonable to use such data sets, since they provide high quality comparisons across countries. However, one should pay close attention to the measurement instruments, as these may cause unintentional but systematic variability in the observed data. While the data from each survey can be of high quality ??per se??, we claim that results from these surveys are not comparable, owing to their different measurement approaches and survey instruments. In this paper we present data from several experiments which show that scientific findings from these surveys depend significantly on questionnaire design.     

Learning to trust strangers: an evolutionary perspective

What if living in a relatively trustworthy society was sufficient to blindly trust strangers? In this paper we interpret generalized trust as a learning process and analyse the trust game paradox in light of the replicator dynamics. Given that trust inevitably implies doubts about others, we assume incomplete information and study the dynamics of trust in buyer-supplier purchase transactions. Considering a world made of ??good?? and ??bad?? suppliers, we show that the trust game admits a unique evolutionarily stable strategy: buyers may trust strangers if it is not too risky to do so. Examining the situation where some players may play either as trustor or as trustee we show that this result is robust.     

PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies

This paper asks whether rating agencies played a passive role or were an active driving force during Europe??s sovereign debt crisis. We address this by estimating relationships between sovereign debt ratings and macroeconomic and structural variables. We then use these equations to decompose actual ratings into systematic and arbitrary components that are not explained by previously observed procedures of rating agencies. Finally, we check whether systematic, as well as arbitrary, parts of credit ratings affect credit spreads. We find that both do affect credit spreads, which opens the possibility that arbitrary rating downgrades trigger processes of self-fulfilling prophecies that may drive even relatively healthy countries towards default.     

Signalling with official interest rates: the case of the German discount and lombard rate

A major characteristic of the operating procedure of the European Central Bank (ECB) is its reliance on standing facilities. It is intended that the official rates on those facilities also serve the function of signalling. The case of Germany, where the Bundesbank followed a similar signalling strategy, is analysed. In particular the paper investigates whether announcements of official interest rates provide information not already contained in other policy measures and whether the resulting revisions of expectations are efficient. Significant differences are found between signalling in the case of increasing and decreasing interest rates.