军事物流系统决策问题求解的综合集成方法

从军事物流系统特性的角度提出并论证了军事物流系统是开放的复杂性巨系统,并指出要用综合集成的方法解决军事物流系统决策问题,对军事物流复杂系统综合集成研讨厅的构成结构进行了研究,并探讨了解决军事物流系统决策问题的理论框架.     

基于CiteSpace的国内外农业面源污染研究进展与前沿分析

[目的]分析农业面源污染相关的国内外文献,探讨农业面源污染领域的发展历程、国内外研究热点和前沿,为今后研究提供参考。[方法]文章运用文献共被引、关键词共现和关键词突现的文献计量分析法,以Web of Science(WOS)核心数据库以及中国知网（CNKI）的相关文献为研究对象,对2000—2021年农业面源污染领域国内外研究历程及发展趋势进行分析。[结果]（1）农业面源污染问题受到国内外学者的广泛关注,中国发文量最多,占全球的46.18%;(2)对农业面源污染进行聚类分析表明目前国际上农业面源污染领域的知识群组主要集中在水土流失、氮和磷、农业面源污染模型、最佳管理措施、冗余分析等,而国内对农业面源污染的研究主要侧重于农业面源污染负荷、化肥、人工湿地、防治对策等方面。（3）在聚类分析的基础上进行关键词共现分析发现生物技术控制农田径流中氮磷污染、利用Geographic Information System(GIS)等技术建立多种模型并对模型进行集成与优化、确定经济技术上可行的最佳管理措施、识别源区域的风险水平和空间分布是该领域的研究前沿。[结论]利用农业面源污染模型、应用环境友好型技术...     

财政结构、城乡统筹与经济发展的空间机理研究

文章在构建财政结构及城乡统筹指数基础上,从空间角度对2009年我国经济发展机理进程分析。结果表明：2009年我国31省经济发展存在明显的空间集群特性;财政支出总体表现为促进经济发展,其中非生产性支出作用较为明显,生产性支出对于经济发展的促进作用相对较弱;城乡差异在一定层度上对经济的发展起到遏制作用。另外,空间修正收敛模型显示,1994-2009年我国经济整体呈现明显收敛。     

The effects of economic reforms on manufacturing dualism: Evidence from India

Dualism is a pervasive feature of the manufacturing sectors of less-developed countries, with large differences in productivity between the informal and the formal sectors. Policy distortions are viewed as an important factor behind the prevalence of manufacturing dualism. We examine whether tariff reforms, industrial de-licensing and the withdrawal of reservation of products for small firms implemented since the mid-1980s have had any effects on efficiency differentials between informal and formal firms in Indian manufacturing. We find strong evidence that economic reforms have exacerbated dualism by increasing the productivity differentials between the more efficient formal firms and the less efficient informal firms.     

The volatility of Australian traded goods’ prices

It is generally accepted that the Australian economy is continually subject to unanticipated shocks, particularly, unexpected swings in the prices of Australia's internationally- traded goods. This article empirically investigates the nature and extent of volatility in import and export prices faced by the Australian production sector. It estimates multivariate GARCH models of the stochastic processes generating the prices of imports and exports, and of important components of exports and imports. This article proposes an index of volatility, which is used to provide a summary measure of the extent of volatility in a multivariate context. The overall conclusion is that the price growth rates for Australia's traded goods exhibit considerable time variation in volatility and that these price growth rates are highly and positively correlated with each other.     

Are US macroeconomic series difference stationary or trend-break stationary?

This article tests for the presence of a unit-root in all time series included in the extended Nelson–Plosser data set using the statistics devised by Zivot and Andrews, Perron and Murray and Zivot. It specifies the mixed model characterization of the trend-break stationary alternative that allows for a simultaneous break in both the intercept and slope of the trend-function. It rejects the unit-root null hypothesis for real GNP, nominal GNP, real per capita GNP, industrial production, employment, GNP deflator, nominal wages, interest rate and common stock prices. Use of appropriate critical values to assess the significance of the trend-function coefficients reveals that the slope-break should be included in real GNP, nominal GNP, real per capita GNP, nominal wages, interest rate and common stock prices. The results indicate that there is less evidence against the unit-root hypothesis with the extended Nelson–Plosser data compared to the original Nelson–Plosser data.     

再析甬温事件后中国高铁“走出去”

当前,世界迎来新一轮高铁发展浪潮。中国高铁近几年的飞跃发展,受到世界瞩目,高铁"走出去"的市场前景广阔。虽然甬温事件阻碍了"走出去"的脚步,但中国高铁"走出去"的优势仍存在,而且"走出去"战略意义重大,不可动摇。因此要妥善处理甬温事件,采取适当措施,推动"走出去"战略重建。     

境外公共治理经验和推进我国治理创新的建议

境外公共治理的经验表明,在攸关民众切身利益政策的制定和实施过程中,服务对象的参与以及多方合作制衡有助于更好地维护公众利益。国内公共服务的管理一直强调政府与服务提供机构之间的博弈,而忽视了公众方的参与。近年来一些部门和地区开始探索建立公共服务机构的治理机制。我们建议,在完善公众知情权和评议权基础上,中央政府应该着力推进公共服务法人治理结构的试点。近期可由政府主导政策过程,其他利益相关者参与监督和咨询;远期应赋予社会公众代表平等参与决策等核心职权。     

A Skew‐normal copula‐driven GLMM

This paper presents a method for fitting a copula‐driven generalized linear mixed models. For added flexibility, the skew‐normal copula is adopted for fitting. The correlation matrix of the skew‐normal copula is used to capture the dependence structure within units, while the fixed and random effects coefficients are estimated through the mean of the copula. For estimation, a Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm is developed. Simulations are shown alongside a real data example from the Framingham Heart Study.     

Monetary policy games,financial instability and incomplete information

In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, monetary authorities, while pursuing traditional objectives, such as the control of inflation, are also eager to promote financial stability. In this paper, we model the strategic interaction of the central bank and the financial sector and explore a simple monetary policy game with perceived substantial risks to financial stability, where the central bank can be of two types, one pursuing strict inflation-targeting and the other concerned with affecting the expectations formed by the financial sector participants; however, the financial sector is unsure which, due to incomplete information. The conclusion is that for small shocks to inflation there is a pooling equilibrium, whereas for larger shocks there is separation. In the latter case, the central bank that has an explicit financial stability concern is willing to exercise more muted control to inflation in order to reinforce the safety of the financial sector.