Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

Recent empirical work shows evidence for higher valuation of firms in countries with a better legal environment. We investigate whether differences in the quality of firm‐level corporate governance also help to explain firm performance in a cross‐section of companies within a single jurisdiction. Constructing a broad corporate governance rating (CGR) for German public firms, we document a positive relationship between governance practices and firm valuation. There is also evidence that expected stock returns are negatively correlated with firm‐level corporate governance, if dividend yields are used as proxies for the cost of capital. An investment strategy that bought high‐CGR firms and shorted low‐CGR firms earned abnormal returns of around 12% on an annual basis during the sample period.     

Optimal asset allocation for a large number of investment opportunities

This paper introduces a stock‐picking algorithm that can be used to perform an optimal asset allocation for a large number of investment opportunities. The allocation scheme is based upon the idea of causal risk. Instead of referring to the volatility of the assets time series, the stock‐picking algorithm determines the risk exposure of the portfolio by concerning the non‐forecastability of the assets. The underlying expected return forecasts are based on time‐delay recurrent error correction neural networks, which utilize the last model error as an auxiliary input to evaluate their own misspecification. We demonstrate the profitability of our stock‐picking approach by constructing portfolios from 68 different assets of the German stock market. It turns out that our approach is superior to a preset benchmark portfolio. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional performance evaluation for German equity mutual funds

We investigate the conditional performance of a sample of German equity mutual funds over the period from 1994 to 2003 using both the beta-pricing approach and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework. On average, mutual funds cannot generate excess returns relative to their benchmark that are large enough to cover their total expenses. Compared to unconditional alphas, fund performance sharply deteriorates when we measure conditional alphas. Given that stock returns are to some extent predictable based on publicly available information, conditional performance evaluation raises the benchmark for active fund managers because it gives them no credit for exploiting readily available information. Underperformance is more pronounced in the SDF framework than in beta-pricing models. The fund performance measures derived from alternative model specifications differ depending on the number of primitive assets taken to calibrate the SDF as well as the number of instrument variables used to scale assets and/or factors.     

Networks and network resources in technological innovation systems: Towards a conceptual framework for system building

Previous research has shown that formal networks can play a crucial role in the formation of technological innovation systems (TIS). Firms and other actors collaborate in formal networks not only to generate new knowledge but also to strategically create and shape supportive system resources such as technology specific R&D programs. This paper takes a closer look at the resources, which are developed and deployed by networks to facilitate the building up of a TIS. Networks rely not only on the organizational resources of their members but also on new resources developed at the network level including network governance structures, trust among network members, a common understanding of the strategic goals or a good reputation of the network. Our analysis shows that the capacity of networks to fulfill different tasks of system building especially depends on the network resources they are able to establish. With the differentiation of organizational, network and system resources we introduce a conceptual framework, which makes three important contributions. It highlights the strategic nature of (innovation) system building; it allows us comparing the contribution of different actors and formal networks in this regard; and it improves our understanding of how firm and system level processes are intertwined.     

On rationality of business expectations: A micro analysis of qualitative responses

Rationality of expectations of individual agents have been shown to play a crucial role for macroeconomic model building and economic policy. Many applied studies therefore tried to test the implications of rationality by use of survey data. This paper differs from previous studies in that the data used are qualitative monthly survey responses by a large number of individual manufacturing firms to questions concerning their own expected and current business conditions. Results tend to reject the validity of the hypothesis of unbiasedness and efficiency. Due to the qualitative nature of the data, use is made of the log-linear probability model.     

Relative export prices and firm size in imperfect markets

This paper contributes to the rising field in international trade and industrial organization. A vast sample of Italian micro data is used to study the behavior of relative export prices in imperfect markets. It is shown that relative export prices, the relation of prices a firm charges on export and domestic markets, are, in general, downward biased. Moreover, relative export prices depend negatively on firm size and market concentration, but positively on the average export share of the industry. This indicates that markets are segmented and firms are able to discriminate prices.