TESTING FOR PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND UNCOVERED INTEREST PARITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME SHIFTS

Testing for purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been the focus of many empirically oriented studies. While these simple economic theories of exchange rate and interest rate determination are theoretically attractive, the empirical support for these equilibrium conditions is at best mixed. Many potential reasons have been cited in the literature for the failure of such studies, ranging from market imperfections to inappropriate modelling strategies. The current state‐of‐the‐art procedure involves testing for two cointegrating vectors in a multivariate error correction model which may be economically identified as the PPP and UIP relations. However, such a procedure does not account for policy regime shifts which distort the underlying PPP and UIP relations. In this paper, a Markov‐switching vector error correction model (VECM) is considered for time series data in which monetary and exchange rate regime shifts are known to be present. Weak evidence in favour of PPP and UIP is established in a standard linear VECM, although the residuals of this model indicate that it is inappropriate in terms of functional form. The Markov‐switching VECM, however, provides convincing evidence in favour of both the PPP and UIP relations and a marked improvement in the residual distributions.     

Consumer Insurance Fraud/Abuse as Co-creation and Co-responsibility: A New Paradigm

This article discusses the implications of moral dissonance for managers, and how dissonance induced self justification can create an amplifying feedback loop and downward spiral of immoral behaviour. After addressing the nature of moral dissonance, including the difference between moral and hedonistic dissonance, the writer then focuses on dissonance reduction strategies available to managers such as rationalization, self affirmation, self justification, etc. It is noted that there is a considerable literature which views the organization as a potentially corrupting institution and a source of acute levels of moral dissonance. A simplified process model linking immoral behaviour, dissonance and rationalization is mooted, and some recent theories which question traditional dissonance models, including the free choice paradigm (FCP), are considered. The writer concludes that in the light of the above mentioned critical theories, it may be assumed that the levels of moral dissonance, and the extent of rationalization/self justification amongst managers, are more a function of personality and situational factors than previously assumed.     

The impact of trade promotion services on Canadian exporter performance

From 1999 to 2006, Canadian firms successfully diversified their exports to destinations beyond the United States while smaller firms increased their share in total exports. Both are explicit aims of the Trade Commissioner Service export promotion program. Exploiting assumptions from the treatment effects literature, we identify a causal, export‐boosting effect. In contrast with existing evidence for Latin American countries, the intensive margin effect—higher exports to existing product‐destination markets—dominates. Effects at the extensive margin—exporting more products to more destinations—are smaller and sensitive to identification assumptions. We interpret this evidence in light of trade models with heterogeneous firms.     

The Liberalisation of Rail Transport in the EU

On 1 January 2007 the European rail freight market, which has long suffered from fragmentation and a declining share of total transport services, will be fully opened to competition. What will be the consequences for the transport sector and the economy as whole? What further measures are needed to stabilise or increase the railways' share in the freight market? * Member and speaker of the EPP-ED Group (Christian Democrats) in the Committee on Transport and Tourism; rapporteur of the European Parliament responsible for railway issues. ** Views expressed here are not those of NDU or Minnesota.     

Der nächtliche Gang zum Kühlschrank – staatliche Selbstkontrolle und Schulden

Although policy-makers often promise to reduce budget deficits, most countries have high and increasing debt ratios. In this regard, government behaviour shows some intriguing similarities to individuals with self-control problems. If this comparison holds, there is a range of policy measures which could be taken by governments willing to reduce their debt burden.     

Deregulation and dairy production systems: a Bayesian distance function approach

Milk quota trading rules differ across EU member countries. In Denmark a biannual milk quota exchange was set up in 1997 to promote a more efficient reallocation of milk quotas as well as to reduce transaction costs related to the searching and matching of sellers and buyers. Using two comprehensive unbalanced panel data sets on organic and conventional milk farms this study attempts to disentangle the effects of the introduction of quota transferability on the production structure of those farms as well as the probability of market entry/exit. Bayesian estimation techniques are used to estimate an input oriented generalized Leontief distance function as well as a curvature constrained specification. The results suggest that the deregulation in the quota allocation mechanism led to an increased allocative efficiency of organic as well as conventional milk production as well as a relative shift of the PPF in favor of the production of organic milk.     

Auto-static for the people: risk-minimizing hedges of barrier options

We present and test a method for computing risk-minimizing static hedge strategies. The method is straightforward, yet flexible with respect to the type of contingent claim being hedged, the underlying asset dynamics, and the choice of risk-measure and hedge instruments. Extensive numerical comparisons for barrier options in a model with stochastic volatility and jumps show that the resulting hedges outperform previous suggestions in the literature. We also demonstrate that the risk-minimizing static hedges work in an infinite intensity Levy-driven model, and a number of controlled experiments illustrate that hedge performance is robust to model risk.