Technological and policy options for sustainable agricultural intensification in eastern Uganda

This article presents a bio‐economic household model, which has been developed to assess the potential impacts of agricultural intensification efforts on economic and ecological indicators in eastern Uganda. A study region in the Lake Victoria Crescent was selected with comparative advantages for intensive agricultural production: high agricultural potential, high market access, and high population density. However, current production is characterized by low input–output systems revealing a discrepancy between development opportunities and actual development outcomes. Based on a farmer participatory research approach, production methods were introduced in the study region aimed at fostering sustainable agricultural development. Data from two community surveys, two comprehensive household and plot level surveys, and farm‐trial data were used to develop and calibrate bio‐economic models for four representative household types. Model scenarios reveal that farm households in eastern Uganda would not pursue sustainable intensification under current socio‐economic conditions. The market environment has to be improved substantially, i.e., transaction and transportation costs have to be reduced, innovative credit schemes for smallholders have to be introduced, and alternative forms of labor acquisition have to be promoted, to provide sufficient economic incentives for the adoption of environmentally sound production methods. In addition, agricultural service provision needs to be reformed and more agricultural research is needed for new and better‐targeted technologies.     

Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies

A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique is introduced in order to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. We demonstrate how the real-time (computer-based) method increases the efficiency of the process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out-rates. Modifications in the Delphi procedure (e.g. change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. By identifying and analysing three individual effects (initial condition effect, feedback effect, and iteration effect) we examine whether the modifications in the survey process cause deviations to the survey results. Empirical data obtained from both conventional as well as real-time Delphi studies is analysed based on multiple statistical analyses. The research findings indicate that significant differences between the two Delphi survey formats do not exist and final survey results are not affected by changes in the survey procedure.     

Industry structure and labor market flexibility in the South African manufacturing sector: A time series and panel data approach

This paper presents a joint analysis of labor market flexibility and product market structure. Our investigation confirms earlier results of imperfect competition in South African manufacturing where we find an average mark-up of 50% for the period 1970 to 2004 that is without consistent trend over time. The contribution of the paper is to provide a theoretically grounded means of linking output market conduct to labor market flexibility. We infer the proportion of labor associated with rigidities in the labor market from the mark-up, and find that two thirds of total labor employed in South African manufacturing is associated with rigidities. We find that this proportion falls during the 1980s and rises during the 1990s, suggesting an increase in labor flexibility followed by a decrease.     

Headlights on tobacco road to low birthweight outcomes

Low birthweight outcomes are associated with considerable social and economic costs, and therefore the possible determinants of low birthweight are of great interest. One such determinant which has received considerable attention is maternal smoking. From an economic perspective this is in part due to the possibility that smoking habits can be influenced through policy conduct. It is widely believed that maternal smoking reduces birthweight; however, the crucial difficulty in estimating such effects is the unobserved heterogeneity among mothers and the fact that estimation of conditional mean effects seems potentially inappropriate. We provide a unified view on the estimation of relationships between prenatal smoking and birthweight outcomes with quantile regression approaches for panel data and emphasize their differences. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways: (i) we focus not only on one technique, but provide evidence from several approaches and highlight a variety of statistical issues; (ii) the performance of the methods are thoroughly tested in a simulated environment, and recommendations are given on their appropriate use; (iii) our results are based on a detailed data set, which includes many relevant control variables for socio-economic, wealth, and personal characteristics.     

On the optimal design of pension systems

The present paper aims to quantify efficiency properties of flat and earnings-related pay-as-you-go financed social security systems of various institutional designs in order to identify an optimal pension design. Starting from a benchmark economy without social security, we introduce alternative pension systems and compare the costs arising from liquidity constraints as well as distortions of labor supply versus the benefits from insurance provision against income and lifespan uncertainty. Our findings suggest an optimal replacement rate of about 50 % of average earnings. In our model a single-tier earnings-related pension system yields the highest efficiency gains dominating flat benefits as well as two-tier systems of any form. We also show that the negative correlation between pension progressivity and pension generosity of real-world social security systems can be justified on efficiency grounds. Finally, our results indicate a positive impact of means-testing flat benefits against earnings-related benefits within multi-pillar pension systems.     

Good guy vs. bad guy: the influence of parasocial interactions with media characters on brand placement effects

Although brand placements are frequently associated with media characters within movies or TV series, and viewers are well known to relate to such characters, previous research has scarcely dealt with media characters’ influence on brand placement effects. Addressing this, two studies investigate the influence of parasocial interactions with media characters on perceptions of brands related to media characters. The first study applied a 1 × 2 between-subjects design, assuming that positively represented characters elicit greater parasocial interaction and, subsequently, more favourable brand attitudes compared with negatively represented characters. The results confirm the assumed indirect effect. A second study was able to replicate the first study's findings in a different setting and to introduce brand familiarity as an important moderator of the mediation found in the first and second study (moderated mediation). The underlying mechanism and implications are discussed.