Changing factor market conditions in South Africa: The capital market – a sectoral description of the period 1970–97

This article explores changing conditions in South African real capital markets. Noteworthy is the evidence of strong restructuring in this market during the 1990s. Whereas the 1970s and 1980s showed the best investment performance among primary commodity sectors and sectors with strong parastatal involvement, the highest investment rates of the 1990s have been associated with the manufacturing industry. We show that the real user cost of capital and capital productitivity contribute plausible determinants of investment rates in South Africa. The extent to which market forces are allowed to bring in line marginal cost and marginal return on capital appears to influence the sustainability of investment.     

OPTIMAL PORTFOLIOS WITH LOWER PARTIAL MOMENT CONSTRAINTS AND LPM-RISK-OPTIMAL MARTINGALE MEASURES

We optimize the ratio     over an (arbitrage-free) linear sub-space     of attainable returns in an incomplete market model. If a solution exists for  1 < r < ∞  , then the 1st order optimality condition allows to construct an equivalent martingale measure for     , which is shown to be the solution of an appropriate dual minimization problem over the set of all equivalent martingale measures for     . The dual minimization problem admits a solution iff there exists an equivalent martingale measure for     and its optimal value     equals the lowest upper bound     of all α-ratios over     . This new type of non-concave duality also provides an indifference pricing method. The duality result can be extended to the case     and leads to a new no (approximate) arbitrage condition: "no great expectations with vanishing risk."     

Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate

This paper estimates the potential output of the South African economy using several filters. We demonstrate that potential output measures are very sensitive to the different methodologies. We also provide estimates of South Africa's potential growth rate over the 1960–2015 period. Current estimates of the potential growth rate fall in the 1.9%–2.3% range. However, the evidence suggests that the rate is under considerable downward pressure. South African potential growth may be headed toward the 1% range. The strongest decline is in the real sectors of the economy (Manufacturing, Mining), the greatest resilience in the service sectors (financial in particular).     

Giving is a Question of Time: Response Times and Contributions to an Environmental Public Good

Does it matter whether contribution decisions regarding environmental public goods are arrived at through intuition or reflection? Experimental research in behavioral economics has recently adopted dual-system theories of the mind from psychology in order to address this question. This research uses response time data in public good games to distinguish between the two distinct cognitive processes. We extend this literature towards environmental public goods by analyzing response time data from an online experiment in which over 3400 subjects from the general population faced a dichotomous choice between receiving a monetary payment or contributing to climate change mitigation efforts. Our evidence confirms a strong positive link between response times and contributions: The average response time of contributors is 40 % higher than that of non-contributors. This suggests that reflection, not intuition, is at the root of pro-environmental contributions. This result is robust to a comprehensive set of robustness checks, including a within-subjects analysis that controls for potentially unobserved confounds and recovers the relationship at the individual level.     

The evolution and convergence of OECD tax systems

This paper considers theory-based expectations on the evolution of tax structures in developed countries and confronts them with stylised facts from aggregate tax revenue data. A bilateral similarity index is introduced which allows the measurement of the similarity of tax systems conditional on country characteristics. A slow but steady convergence in tax revenue structures is found which depends on the proximity, similarity and exchange between a given pair of countries.     

Is NGO aid not so different after all? Comparing the allocation of Swiss aid by private and official donors

Being closer to the poor, NGOs are widely believed to provide better targeted aid than state agencies. But empirical evidence is largely lacking. We contribute to closing this gap by drawing on an exceptionally detailed Swiss database that covers different forms of NGO aid and several official aid benchmarks. The Tobit estimations account for both altruistic and selfish aid motivations. Whether or not NGOs provide better targeted aid depends on the source of NGO funding as well as the choice of the official benchmark. In contrast to widespread belief, however, the allocation of self-financed NGO aid reveals striking similarities to the allocation of official Swiss development aid.     

Local air pollution and global climate change: A combined cost-benefit analysis

This article presents the findings of a combined cost-benefit analysis of local air pollution and global climate change, two subjects that are usually studied separately. Yet these distinct environmental problems are closely related, since they are both driven by the nature of present energy production and consumption patterns. Our study demonstrates the mutual relevance of, and interaction between, policies designed to address these two environmental challenges individually. Given the many dimensions air pollution control and climate change management have in common, it is surprising that they have only little been analyzed in combination so far. We attempt to cover at least part of the existing gap in the literature by assessing how costs and benefits of technologies and strategies that jointly tackle these two environmental problems can best be balanced. By using specific technological options that cut down local air pollution, e.g. related to particulate emissions, one may concurrently reduce CO₂ emissions and thus contribute to diminishing global climate change. Inversely, some of the long-term climate change strategies simultaneously improve the quality of air in the short run. We have extended the well-established MERGE model by including emissions of particulate matter, and show that integrated environmental policies generate net global welfare benefits. We also demonstrate that the discounted benefits of local air pollution reduction significantly outweigh those of global climate change mitigation, at least by a factor of 2, but in most cases of our sensitivity analysis much more. Still, we do not argue to only restrict energy policy today to what should be our first priority, local air pollution control, and wait with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, we propose to design policies that simultaneously address these issues, as their combination creates an additional climate change bonus. As such, climate change mitigation proves an ancillary benefit of air pollution reduction, rather than the other way around.     

Taxation of firms with unknown mobility

We analyze optimal business tax policy when some firms are able to escape taxation by moving abroad. In contrast to the existing literature, we assume that the true number of mobile firms is ex ante unknown. While the government may learn from the firms' location responses to past tax rate changes, firms may anticipate this and adjust their choices accordingly. We find that incomplete information on mobility substantially affects the properties and the implications of equilibrium policy choices. First, the government may find it optimal to set a tax rate that triggers partial firm migration but full revelation of the true number of mobile firms. Second, we show that, if the firms' outside option is attractive (i.e., relocation cost and foreign tax rates are low), expected tax rates and expected firm migration are higher if the degree of mobility is unknown. Third, there is a positive value of learning, i.e., commitment on future tax rates cannot increase the government's expected revenue. However, if the government can commit to a rule‐based learning mechanism, i.e., credibly tie its future tax policy to present policy outcomes, it may obtain a Pareto improvement.