OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

Urbanization effects on survey nonresponse: a test within and across cities

This paper addresses differences in survey response across city size by applying an explanation from House and Wolf to areas within cities. The data are from Toronto, Hamilton and Kitchener, in Canada. Consistent with other literature, response falls sharply from largest to smallest place, but variation in response rates within the cities is negligible. The intra-city analysis is accomplished by factor analyzing variables such as population density, crime rate and ethnic structure, mostly computed for census tracts, into a variable labelled social disorganization. What House and Wolf termed compositional variation in response is handled by record linking with municipal assessment information. The analysis is based on micro data taking the people listed for the sample as unit of observation.     

The effect of strike militancy intentions and general union attitudes on the Organizational Citizenship Behavior of university faculty

Using a sample of unionized faculty, this study investigated whether faculty members' militancy intentions and general union attitudes affected their level of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). OCB was divided into three dimensions (OCB-teaching, OCB-faculty, and OCB-university), and separate predictions were made for each. Results indicated weak relationships at best between the predictor variables and OCB, suggesting that unionization is not likely to affect this important aspect of job performance.     

THE LEARNING STYLES QUESTIONNAIRE: AN ALTERNATIVE TO KOLB'S INVENTORY?

An important consideration in the design of educational programmes is the learning style of students. In the field of management education, Kolb's theory of learning styles has received particular attention. Research has shown, however, that his associated measure, the Learning Style Inventory (LSI), may be of doubtful utility. the present study of British and overseas managers examines the measurement properties of one alternative, Honey and Mumford's Learning Styles Questionnaire (LSQ). the results, calling into question Kolb's theory itself, suggest that the LSQ may be preferred to the LSI on account of the distribution of its scores, its temporal stability and its construct and face validity. Its predictive validity, however, remains in doubt.     

Ideology or pragmatism? trade union education in France and Britain

Trade union education–a significant area of trade union activity – has been characterised by a tension between the desire to provide a certain ideological, economic and political perspective and the need to develop pragmatic bargaining skills. This comparative study examines the differing ways in which trade union education has developed in France and Britain.     

Moving the status quo: the growth of trade union political funds[1]

In the compulsory review ballots on trade union political funds all 38 unions voted overwhelmingly for their retention. Since then 17 unions have adopted a political fund for the first time. This article analyses the reasons for this and examines the position of trade unions which have decided against balloting.     

The use of cycles? explaining employee involvement in the 1990s

Drawing on evidence from twenty-five case studies from different sectors and parts of the country, the authors challenge Ramsay's influential ‘cycles of control’ theory of participation as a managerial response to industrial relations pressures from below. Through a series of ‘ideal type’ scenarios, they indicate the range of management motives behind the new ‘wave’ of employee involvement schemes.     

Valuation effects of rollout publicly traded partnerships in the oil and gas industry

In trying to explain the often painful process of corporate restructuring, fingers are frequently pointed at inefficient management. This gives short shrift, however, to an important result of breaking up large, integrated corporations and selling them in smaller pieces: it makes the capital market more nearly complete, and there are strong theoretical arguments that this enhances value. We report the results of a natural experiment that occurred in the oil and gas industry, in which eleven integrated corporations formed publicly traded partnerships to hold their domestic production properties, yet (with few exceptions) retained most of the partnership units under corporate ownership. This behavior avoids any significant change in corporate governance, and is inconsistent with the tax motive popularly attributed as the reason for forming these partnerships; yet we find that significant positive abnormal returns accrued to stockholders when the formations were announced. The results we observe, therefore, support the theory that additional value can be realized by expanding the set of opportunities available to the investment community.     

PLANNING AND TACTICAL FACTORS IN THE PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS

It has been a well-recognized axiom in project management research that the project implementation process can be greatly facilitated by addressing a variety of project critical success factors. It is argued here that critical factors often fall into two distinct sub-groups: those related to initial project planning and those concerned with subsequent tactical operationalization. A field study was conducted to explore changes in the perceived importance of project planning and tactical factors across four stages in the project life cycle. The sample consisted of 408 managers currently involved in projects. It was found that the relative importance of planning and tactical factors varies across the project life cycle. Further, the perceived importance of these factors is contingent upon the type of success measure employed. When an efficiency success measure is used, planning factors are initially perceived to be of high importance but are overtaken by tactical issues as the project progresses through its life cycle. When ‘external’ success measures (perceived value of the project and client satisfaction) are employed, project planning factors dominate tactics throughout the project's life cycle. Finally, implications for managers are developed and directions for future research are discussed.