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81.
In this paper, we investigate whether information on the history of purchase intentions is useful in predicting actual purchase behavior. The research is motivated by two factors. The first
factor is the empirical finding in the literature that measuring intentions just prior to purchase provides better predictions
of actual purchase as compared to when these intentions are measured earlier. The second factor is the role of the timing
of the formation of intentions prior to purchase. While one stream of literature based on preference fluency predicts that
early formation of intentions is more likely to lead to actual purchase, the other stream based on the memory-based “recency”
effect predicts that formation of intentions just prior to purchase is more likely to lead to actual purchase. Together, these
two factors motivate the potential need to account for the entire history of intentions prior to purchase. A canonical example
of a market where intention histories are tracked is the movie industry, where “first choice” movie watching intentions are
tracked up to (and in some cases beyond) the time of release. Accommodating the history of intentions in an econometric model
that predicts actual box office performance is challenging due to the differing numbers of observations for the movies, the
large numbers of observations for certain movies, as well as the role of various time-invariant and time-varying covariates
influencing intentions. We propose a two-part model where the first part involves a hierarchical growth model that summarizes
the trajectories of intentions via “growth factors.” These growth factors also reflect the role of the various covariates.
The second part is a regression of the box office performance on the growth factors and other covariates. The models are simultaneously
estimated within a Bayesian framework. Consistent with the previous literature, we find that including information on intentions
improves our ability to predict behavior, with the recent intentions being the most informative. Importantly, when the history
of intentions is accounted for, our results indicate that the data support the “recency” literature—intentions grow over time
leading up to purchase, and this growth has a positive impact on opening box office performance. While a linear growth model
performs best for most movies, there exists a subset of movies for which the quadratic growth model better captures the “spike”
in intentions just prior to purchase. Further, accounting for information on the history of intentions dramatically improves
model fit and forecasting performance relative to when only the intentions at one point in time (e.g., the ones just prior
to purchase) are accounted for. 相似文献
82.
Crystal Man Ying Lee Brandon Goode Emil Nørtoft Jonathan E. Shaw Dianna J. Magliano 《Journal of medical economics》2018,21(10):1001-1005
Aims: To assess and compare the direct healthcare and non-healthcare costs and government subsidies by body weight and diabetes status.Methods: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study collected health service utilization and health-related expenditure data at the 2011–2012 follow-up surveys. Costing data were available for 4,409 participants. Unit costs for 2016–2017 were used where available or were otherwise inflated to 2016–2017 dollars. Age- and sex-adjusted costs per person were estimated using generalized linear models.Results: The annual total direct cost ranged from $1,998 per person with normal weight to $2,501 per person with obesity in participants without diabetes. For those with diabetes, total direct costs were $2,353 per person with normal weight, $3,263 per person with overweight, and $3,131 per person with obesity. Additional expenditure as government subsidies ranged from $5,649 per person with normal weight and no diabetes to $8,085 per person with overweight and diabetes. In general, direct costs and government subsidies were higher for overweight and obesity compared to normal weight, regardless of diabetes status, but were more noticeable in the diabetes sub-group. The annual total excess cost compared with normal weight people without diabetes was 26% for obesity alone and 46% for those with obesity and diabetes.Limitations: Participants included in this study represented a healthier cohort than the Australian population. The relatively small sample of people with both obesity and diabetes prevented a more detailed analysis by obesity class.Conclusion: Overweight and obesity are associated with increased costs, which are further increased in individuals who also have diabetes. Interventions to prevent overweight and obesity or reduce weight in people who are overweight or obese, and prevent diabetes, should reduce the financial burden. 相似文献
83.
Customers develop switching costs when they invest time and effort to develop capabilities required to optimally use a given product. Such capabilities are likely to be firm specific and cannot be transferred perfectly to competitors' product offerings. Customers who face switching costs are likely to remain with the same firm and consume complementary products that meet their needs. Thus, firms can achieve competitive advantage by exploiting customers' switching costs. In this paper, we hypothesize that the extent to which firms can benefit from customers' switching costs is contingent upon the firms' internal cross‐selling capabilities. We use online banking data to test our hypotheses and find that customers' switching costs contribute to banks' profitability only in the presence of high levels of internal cross‐selling capabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
84.
This article proposes an alternative specification for the second stage of the Case‐Shiller repeat‐sales method. This specification is based on serial correlation in the deviations from the mean one‐period returns on the underlying individual assets, whereas the original Case‐Shiller method assumes that the deviations from mean returns by the underlying individual assets are i.i.d. The methodology proposed in this article is easy to implement and provides more accurate estimates of the standard errors of returns under serial correlation. The repeat‐sales methodology is generally used to construct an index of prices or returns for unique, infrequently traded assets such as houses, art and musical instruments, which are likely to be prone to exhibit serial correlation in returns. We demonstrate our methodology on a data set of art prices and on a data set of real estate prices from the city of Amsterdam. 相似文献
85.
次贷危机又被称为次级房贷危机,是一场发生在美国,因次级抵押贷款机构破产、投资基金被迫关闭以及股市剧烈震荡引起的金融风暴。它致使全球主要金融市场出现流动性不足危机。美国次贷危机从2006春季逐步显现,在2006年之前的5年里,由于美国住房市场持续繁荣,加上前几年利率水平较低,美国的次级抵押贷款市场迅速发展。由于短期利率的提高, 相似文献
86.
87.
There is a growing need to increase our understanding of ethical decision making in U.S. based organizations. The authors examine the complexity of creating uniform ethical standards even when the meaning of ethical behavior is being debated. The nature of these controversies are considered, and three important dimensions for ethical decision making are discussed: leaders with integrity and a strong sense of social responsibility, organization cultures that foster dialogue and dissent, and organizations that are willing to reflect on and learn from their actions. Leaders with integrity demonstrate consistency between vision and action that promotes trust, regularly concern themselves with developing moral standards, and are proactive agents of change in an increasingly complex world. Organizational cultures that support dialogue suspend judgments and increase their capacity to think together towards new levels of understanding. Ethical concepts evolve in these organizational cultures, and actions are informed and responsible. Organizations that reflect on their actions engage in double loop learning so that the time taken to reflect on the past and present leads to a more judicious and ethical future. In essence, the authors point to organizational guidelines for ethical decision making that lead to an increase in members' capacity to think and act ethically.
Jonathan Z. Gottlieb is a consultant to organizations and a Ph.D. Candidate in Organizational Psychology. His interests include organization redesign, leadership and team development, ethics, and role definition for organization development practitioners.
Jyotsna Sanzgiri is Dean of Organizational Psychology Programs at the California School of Professional Psychology — Alameda. She received her Ph.D. in business Administration and her M.B.A. Her interests include organizational theory and core values across cultures, and the historical underpinnings of organization development and behavior. 相似文献
88.
The role of international and internal migration in facilitating or inhibiting development is currently attracting considerable attention globally. In southern Africa, the migration–development nexus has been researched for a number of years and policy makers in both the development and migration fields are now paying it increasing attention and increasingly recognising the significance of migration for development and poverty reduction. Much of the international debate on this nexus is hampered by the absence of sound, reliable national and local data. This collection of essays by southern African researchers combines the national with the local, the quantitative with the qualitative, and addresses several prominent themes in the global migration–development debate: remittances, the brain drain and migrant rights. It also focuses on key migration–development issues which have received less attention globally, but which are of critical importance to southern Africa: migration and HIV/AIDS, migration and food security and the rural impact of migrant retrenchments. This Introduction to the collection contextualises the essays within current international and local debates. 相似文献
89.
In this article, we document the growing influence of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the realm of socially responsible
investing (SRI). Drawing from ethical and economic perspectives on stakeholder management and agency theory, we develop a
framework to understand how and when NGOs will be most influential in shaping the ethical and social responsibility orientations
of business using the emergence of SRI as the primary influencing vehicle. We find that NGOs have opportunities to influence
corporate conduct via direct, indirect, and interactive influences on the investment community, and that the overall influence
of NGOs as major actors in socially responsible investment is growing, with attendant consequences for corporate strategy,
governance, and social performance. 相似文献
90.
The ideology of consumption and the imperative of consumer choice have washed across the globe. In today's developed economies there is an ever-increasing amount of buying, amidst an ever-increasing amount of purchase options, amidst an ever-increasing amount of stress, amidst an ever-decreasing amount of discretionary time. This brief essay reviews research suggesting, for example, that hyperchoice confuses people and increases regret, that hyperchoice is initially attractive but ultimately unsatisfying, and that hyperchoice is psychologically draining. Future research is then discussed, including how and why hyperchoice may have other toxic effects on people, including the degrading of moral emotions and behavior. 相似文献