BUSINESS CYCLES AND ADMISSIONS TO SUBSTANCE ABUSE TREATMENT

We study the effect of business cycles on admissions to specialty substance abuse treatment using administrative data between 1992 and 2015. We proxy business cycles with the state unemployment rate and apply a panel fixed‐effects model. While previous economic research has shown that substance abuse is counter‐cyclical, we observe no change in the total number of admissions across the business cycle. However, focusing on average effects misses important heterogeneity. In substance‐specific regressions we find statistically significant evidence that heroin‐related admissions are counter‐cyclical while stimulant‐related admissions are procyclical. Our findings add to the literature on business cycles and health. (JEL I1, J2)     

Advice in the marketplace: a laboratory study

There is substantial evidence that the decisions of experienced and inexperienced agents differ in ways that impact both individual earnings and aggregate market outcomes. Typically, such evidence is gathered by studying experience as it accumulates within subjects over time. We examine a new question; whether behaviors associated with experience can be transferred directly to new market participants. Specifically, we study the intergenerational transmission of information, including direct advice, in experimental asset markets. Empirical results suggest that advice is a substitute for experience. Prices in sessions with advised traders shift towards fundamentals—a pattern consonant with prior work exploring the impact of own-experience on pricing dynamics. Further, convergence is observed in mixed-markets where only a subset of traders are advised.     

An Investigation of Analysts' Praise of Management During Earnings Conference Calls

Through the textual analysis of a large sample of earnings conference calls, the authors find that analysts praise management on over half of earnings conference calls by saying complimentary phrases such as “congratulations on the great quarter.” The results show that analysts' complimentary phrases reflect the nature of the information released at the earnings announcement. The authors find that the amount of praise by analysts on an earnings conference call is strongly associated with the earnings surprise and to a greater extent the earnings announcement stock return. They also find that there is value to investors in tracking analysts' flattery of management during earnings conference calls, as it predicts abnormal stock returns over the following quarter. The findings, which are incremental to prior research on the tone of earnings conference calls, highlight a previously ignored aspect of analyst feedback.     

Interest group incentives for post-lottery trade restrictions

The rights to use publicly-managed natural resources are sometimes distributed by lottery, and typically these rights are nontransferable. Prohibition of post-lottery permit transfers discourages applicants from entering the lottery solely for profitable permit sale, so only those who personally value the use of the resource apply. However, because permits are distributed randomly and trade is restricted, permits may not be used by those who value them most. We argue that restrictions on permit transfers is a policy response designed to limit entry when interest group membership is not distinguishable ex ante, and characterize the economic/informational conditions under which post-lottery prohibitions on trade are likely to arise. We develop our model using the specific case of the Four Rivers Lottery used to allocate rafting permits on four river sections in Idaho.     

WHAT CAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTE TO THE ‘SUSTAINABILITY’ DEBATE?

Economics generally, and benefit-cost analysis in particular, are not substitutes for values. They are tools of analysis that rest on assumptions about values. The primary role for economics in normative analysis is to provide information about efficiently achieving that which is valued, not to make the decision. The major economic tool for analyzing normative issues is benefit-cost analysis. This paper considers the role of benefit-cost analysis in addressing the sustainability debate. The notion of "sustain-ability" raises concerns about values held by society. The analysis here addresses several issues within the sustainability debate: concerns about intergenerational equity including the appropriate discount rate for projects with environmental consequences; implications for burdens on future generations; and the moral basis for benefit-cost analysis. The authors argue that the correct discount rate for all such projects is the social rate of time preference, and that suggestions for using lower discount rates result from attempting to prevent inequities by adjusting prices. Additionally, the authors argue that economic analysis, especially benefit-cost analysis, can play a useful role in providing information to decision makers, who ultimately will face resource allocation issues as they seek to implement policies promoting sustainability.     

Optimal delegation implications of central bank transparency

The interrelationship between monetary regime design and central bank transparency is examined. We find optimal delegation requires the central bank be either: ‘representative’, not choosing to publicly reveal its private information; or ‘ultraconservative’, deciding to be fully transparent.     

The Competence Pyramid: A Framework for Identifying and Analyzing Firm and Industry Competence

The core capability and competence perspective is respected by both academics and practitioners. The efficacy of this strategic orientation is dependent on a firm's ability to identify its specific technological competencies and managerial capabilities and match these strengths with the assets necessary to gain competitive advantage in the firm's chosen markets. Here a systematic process for the identification of competencies and capabilities present within a firm and those competencies and capabilities needed for development of competitive advantage in an industry is presented. This system uses a pictorial representation referred to as the competency pyramid. The competency pyramid assists with the implementation of a strategy based on the core competency perspective; by assisting a firm in understanding which competencies they currently posses and which they require for success in the markets they have targeted. The use of the competency pyramid is illustrated using both service and manufacturing examples.     

Valuing Options in Water Markets: A Laboratory Investigation

Risk and reliability dominate water supply discussions in the arid western United States due to increasing demand and finite, weather-dependent supply. Water markets have evolved in this region so agencies could meet this growing demand. In a few instances, water agencies turned to contractual mechanisms such as options to manage supply. As demand continues to grow option markets and other novel approaches to allocating water may become increasingly popular. We utilize experimental economics to analyze the effect of annual options on water markets in the absence of sufficient real-world data for conventional econometric analysis. We find gains from trade are higher when options can be traded. Additionally, gains are more evenly distributed, particularly with a dominant buyer and many sellers. Findings suggest option markets may be a viable choice as policymakers prepare for future droughts.     

The Theory of a Working Class: a Re-Appreciation of Ralf Dahrendorf

Competing social theories defining “working class” can be tested against the reality of trade union membership. Only Dahrendorf’s is a good match. He follows Marx and Weber by requiring the economic need to work, but additionally requires that such work be in jobs lacking authority, jobs at the bottom of the workplace hierarchy in which one takes orders from those above, but has no one below to give orders to. This definition can be used to predict working class behaviors other than forming unions including the general lack of support for revolutionary change and a classless society while still giving support for issues of social justice. Support for underdogs is evident among union members because membership fosters the recognition of one’s own underdog role. The importance of unions’ role in social justice generally is evident in the relationship between union strength and income equality.