Another look at long memory in common stock returns

We apply the modified rescaled range test to the return series of 1,952 common stocks. The results indicate that long memory is not a widespread characteristic of these stocks. But logit models of the event of a test rejection reveal that rejections are linked to firms with large risk-adjusted average returns. The maximal moment of a return distribution is also found to influence the event of a rejection, but not in a way suggestive of moment-condition failure. Evidence suggestive of survivorship bias is also uncovered. We conclude that there is some evidence consistent with persistent long memory in the returns of a small proportion of stocks.     

Consuming in one's mind: An exploration

Consumer research generally focuses on the consumption of tangible objects and experiences, which are concrete. However, consumers often consume in their minds by fantasizing, dreaming, or imagining that they possess some desired object or that they are living some experience. In this article, the term consumption dreams is used to refer to mental representations of consumption objects that consumers desire and experiences that they want to realize. These are distinguished from uncontrolled mental activities that occur when asleep. The results of two exploratory studies that examined consumption dreams are presented. In the first study, five adult consumers were asked about their most important consumption dream, as well as the factors that influenced this dream and the behaviors that ensued. The second study consisted of a survey of 195 adult consumers where the determinants and consequences of consumption dreaming were probed. It was found that indulging in consumption dreaming is a common activity among most consumers and that consumption dreams and their characteristics depend on general as well as dream‐based variables. In addition, those dreams were found to impact on several consumer behaviors. A causal model involving a subset of the variables examined in this exploratory research was put forward and tested with the survey data. The results showed the value of a proposed conceptual framework to generate theoretical propositions about consumption dreaming. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Issues for Implementing Phased Retirement in Defined Benefit Plans

Abstract

U.S. society is aging. The nature of work has changed from work that requires physical strength to work based on knowledge. As a result, workers are beginning to phase into retirement rather than going directly from full-time work to full retirement. From a retirement income perspective, many final-average-pay defined benefit plans have features that make phased retirement difficult at best and detrimental at worst. U.S. pension law and regulations present barriers to phased retirement if the phased retiree wants to receive a portion of available pension benefits during phased retirement.

This paper examines private sector options to encourage phased retirement and to eliminate the disincentives that currently affect defined benefit plans. It offers alternative calculations of final average pay that do not penalize the part-time worker. It also demonstrates that the plan’s early retirement reduction and late retirement increase can be set to maintain actuarial equity throughout phased retirement. The paper presents benefit calculations with equal actuarial values for various payout patterns.

The paper discusses the coordination between phased retirement and subsidized early retirement. Finally, the paper notes some of the changes in ERISA that will be needed to facilitate phased retirement in defined benefit plans, especially for participants who want to receive pension distributions while working part time.     

Leading the future

This article examines conceptions of leadership appropriate for a global mind set. The financial value of triple bottom line investing is highlighted as an example of this trend. However, this approach is shown to be dependent upon a given society's stage of values development, thus an outcome of more advanced society's citizens having already met basic survival needs, supporting access to higher order values. Constructivist developmental theory is explored and the idea of a global mind set is linked to the emergence of world-centric value systems in individuals. A dialogical approach is introduced, along with Theory U, which is examined in more detail as a process or approach that can facilitate world-centric consciousness. This leads to exploring the perspective and impact of spirituality in relation to leadership appropriate for facilitating a global mind shift.     

How long might the younger-old live: A predictive model

Life expectancy amongst older people in industrialised countries has been improving over an extended period and still continues to do so. This has ramifications for providers of services to this population, thus necessitating a level of forward planning. Predictive models of remaining life expectancy for older age groups can assist long-term planning processes. This paper presents an extrapolative approach to forecasting remaining life expectancy. Based on logistic modelling of historic mortality and survivorship for the “younger-old” male population of England and Wales over the period 1970-2005, a parsimonious two-parameter model is derived. This model provides a close correspondence to published period life table data. Trends in these parameters are then fitted and extrapolated to enable projections of life expectancy up to 40 years into the future. Alternative assumptions are used to determine a range of future life expectancy trajectories for a 65-year-old male. Occupational pension scheme provision is identified as an area of particular concern in the context of increasing longevity. As an illustration, the life expectancy trajectories are combined with differing discount rate assumptions to generate a number of alternative pension liability scenarios for the extrapolation period.     

Managing Price Risk in the Pakistan Wheat Market

The government intervenes in the wheat market in Pakistan toensure food security for consumers and to provide adequate andstable incomes for producers. The cost of this interventionis high, and its impact on the performance of agriculture hasbeen significantly negative. The World Bank is urging policychanges such as removing agricultural trade restrictions, pricesupports, and subsidies. However, policymakers often resistsuch reforms, fearing that they will expose the domestic marketto fluctuating international commodity prices. This article assesses the risk management needs of the sectorand evaluates whether using financial instruments—suchas commodity hedging using futures, options, or swaps—wouldimprove risk management. Simulations based on monthly data for1994 show that market-based methods of risk management couldreduce the impact of international price volatility on the domesticmarket without incurring high government cost or distortingprice signals.     

Was the Green Revolution intended to maximise food production?

The evidence on yields, food-production, food-calories per capita, and declining levels of malnutrition in countries experiencing a Green Revolution are commonly cited in support of the claim that the GR sought to maximise food production. If one looks closely at the actual design of GR programmes (in India and elsewhere), however, it is clear that they were instead intended to boost yields and profitability in a small number of targeted areas. The underlying rationale for targeting was that achieving very high yields in such regions would persuade farmers to abandon subsistence farming in favour of commercial production, relying upon the market for the purchase of inputs as well as the sale of produce. In response to widespread criticism of the Green Revolution ca. 1970 for neglecting the needs of peasant farmers (as well as accentuating rural unrest), the World Bank and other donors began to direct more attention and resources to smallholders, but the aim of commercialising farming remained unchanged.     

Ethnic Variation in Commuting Propensity and Unemployment Spells: Some U.K. Evidence

This paper uses 1987–88 U.K. survey data from the unemployment inflow to investigate the ability of ethnic variation in commuting willingness to account for longer non-white unemployment spells. The study is motivated by the possibility that ethnic minorities are at greater risk of spatial mismatch unemployment because they are more geographically restrictive in their job-seeking activities. Our findings support this hypothesis and indicate that lower commuting willingness explains about 20% of the differential between the average unemployment spells of ethnic minorities and whites.