Demographics and the long-horizon returns of dividend-yield strategies

This paper investigates the relationship between demographic changes and the long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies. We hypothesise that in a world where components of wealth are mentally treated as being non-fungible, the preference for high dividend-paying stocks by older investors means that the excess returns of high dividend-yielding stocks, relative to other stocks, should be positively related to demographic clientele variation. In particular, we find that, consistent with the behavioural life-cycle hypothesis, long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies are positively driven by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the Fama–French factors, inflation rate, consumption growth rate, interest rates, tax clienteles, time trend and alternative definitions of both dividend-yield strategies and demographic variation.     

A fuzzy AHP approach to construct international hotel spa atmosphere evaluation model

Governments in all over the world put great efforts on promoting domestic leisure and tourist activities, which leads to the enhancement of market potential and opportunities. Among all hospitality businesses such as restaurants, clubs, recreational villa, spa and beauty salon, international hotels is generating most percentage of profit in this sector. International hotels not only provide basic equipment and intimate service, but also emphasize on extreme quality of atmosphere sensation for customers. This study utilizes a two-step method with Delphi in the first and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (FAHP) in the second phase. The first phase is to collect information and knowledge to construct an AHP hierarchy to evaluate hotel atmosphere. The second phase incorporates a FAHP method to integrate experts’ knowledge and calculate priorities of criteria. This research provides insights of international hotel atmosphere evaluation and directions for future development of hotel atmospheres for decision makers.     

A Note on Regulating Oligopolistic Industries: A Hierarchical Model

In a 1994 paper, extending the well-known incremental surplus subsidy scheme of Sappington and Sibley, Schwermer presented a non-Bayesian incentive scheme for regulating a Cournot oligopoly industry. This note designs an oligopolistic incentive scheme for a hierarchical Stackelberg model in which firms choose outputs sequentially.     

Between Collapse and Survival in North Korea: an Economic Assessment of the Dilemma

The current North Korean reform focuses on an open door policy without much import liberalization and on a partial domestic liberalization limited to the consumer sector. This can be considered a variant of the so-called East Asian growth model pursued in South Korea, Taiwan, and China. Although the basic directions of such a model are understandable, the intensity of the reform measures is not radical and strong enough, and the economy has exhausted domestic resources to rely on and is having difficulty in getting access to external resources. Collaboration from the US and South Korea is the most critical elements for the success of North Korean strategy since these will lower political uncertainty and give the regime access to international capital and markets.They may have at most two or three years to rely on and try a big push from the outside, which can hopefully give the system a new momentum for recovery. Otherwise, collapse is certain since they do not have their own ability to revitalize the economy. Success or failure of the next three-year reform will determine the future of North Korea. Failure, including the sudden stop of the reform by internal coup, could lead to collapse of the North Korean regime (hard landing), which will bring in radical reforms either by a new North Korean leadership or by a South Korean takeover. Success could lead to a widening and deepening of reforms to deal with the main body of the domestic economic system (Chinese style soft landing), or alternatively give room for stop-go style (Romania or Cuba style) muddling through.     

An alternative bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression model using a copula

We propose an alternative bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial (BZINB) regression model based on a copula. The empirical result shows that the proposed model performs better than the existing BZINB models in terms of the maximum log-likelihood and the AIC.