Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates

We investigate the time series properties of a volatility model, whose conditional variance is specified as in ARCH with an additional persistent covariate. The included covariate is assumed to be an integrated or nearly integrated process, with its effect on volatility given by a wide class of nonlinear volatility functions. In the paper, such a model is shown to generate many important characteristics that are commonly observed in financial time series. In particular, the model yields persistence in volatility, and also well predicts leptokurtosis. This is true for any type of volatility functions considered in the paper, as long as the covariate is integrated or nearly integrated. Stationary covariates cannot produce important characteristics observed in many financial time series. We present two empirical applications of the model, which show that the default premium (the yield spread between Baa and Aaa corporate bonds) affects stock return volatility and the interest rate differential between two countries accounts for exchange rate return volatility. The forecast evaluation shows that the model generally outperforms GARCH and FIGARCH at relatively lower frequencies.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

Scale Externalities in Korea

This paper estimates the nature and magnitude of scale externalities in a developing country, Korea, in the period 1983–1993. This is a period of rapid industry deconcentration from Seoul to other metro areas, providing a context where externalities are measured when local scale magnitudes are changing dramatically. The data allow us to examine the emerging degree of national industrial concentration in different industries, as related to their scale externality magnitudes. We also examine whether individual industries agglomerate in cities which have a comparative advantage for that industry.     

Mentoring functions and turnover intention: the mediating role of perceived organizational support

Despite an increasing number of studies investigating the effects of mentoring on employee work outcomes, limited attention has been placed on the relationship between mentoring functions and turnover intentions. In this study, we examined the relationship between mentoring functions and turnover intentions, and the mediating role of perceived organizational support (POS) on this relationship. Using data collected from 176 employees in three Chinese banks, we found that POS partially mediated the relationship between mentoring functions and employees' turnover intentions.     

Effects of workplace bullying on work engagement and health: the mediating role of job insecurity

This study examined the effects of exposure to workplace bullying on work engagement and health problems. It is one of the few studies to treat job insecurity as an explanatory factor of the bullying–outcome relationship. Specifically, we perceive that job insecurity unfolds through an interpersonal process in which negative experiences, such as bullying, make employees feel less valuable in their workplace. By analyzing the data from employees in Korea using the latent factor approach, the tested mediation model explained that exposure to workplace bullying decreased the work engagement of employees and increased their health problems because of their high level of perceived job insecurity. The relationship between bullying and engagement would not be established without the job insecurity variable, thereby suggesting its indirect effect. Given the partial mediating effect of health problems, job insecurity is identified as an additional underlying mechanism that explains why bullying increases health problems. This finding does not contradict the widespread arguments on the health-impairing effect of workplace bullying. This study contributes to the literature and business practices by identifying an important underlying mechanism that helps us understand the association between exposure to workplace bullying and key work outcomes.     

Taming polysemous signals: The role of marketing intensity on the relationship between financial leverage and firm performance

This study traces the degree of integration and volatility spillover effect between the Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets by analyzing the Meteor shower hypothesis. Daily data are used from nine worldly equity markets (KSE 100, NIKKEI 225, HIS, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW JONES, GADXI, FTSE 350 and DFMGI) for the period of 2005 to 2014. First, we used the whole data set and after that we split data set into two subsets, First subset of data contains the era of global financial crisis of 2008 from 2005 to 2009 and Second subset is after global financial crisis time period from 2010 to 2014 (The global crisis prevailed till end of 2009). By following the Hamao et al. (1990) technique the univariate GARCH type models are employed to explore the dynamic linkages between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets. The results from whole data set illustrate that there is mixed co‐movements between leading foreign stock markets and Pakistani stock market. The results from both subsets provide an evidence that there is a unidirectional mean and volatility spillover effect from S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJI and DFMGI to KSE 100. Also we found bidirectional spillover effect between DFMGI and KSE 100 from both subsets of data. We concluded that there is only one indirect linkage through which may the information transmitted to KSE 100. This linkage is developed due to the co‐movement among KSE 100, DFMGI and NASDAQ 100 in crisis period. This integration between these markets may provide a sign of indirect linkage. It also exhibits the volatility in Pakistan stock market returns is instigated through direct effects as well as indirect effects. Our study brings important conclusions for financial institutions, portfolio managers, market players and academician to diagnose the nature and level of linkages between the financial markets.     

Informed trading in the index option market: The case of KOSPI 200 options

This study examines if informed trading is present in the index option market by analyzing the KOSPI 200 options, the most actively traded derivative product in the world. The spread decomposition model developed by Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) is utilized and the adverse‐selection cost component of the spread estimated by the model is then used as a proxy for the degree of informed trading. We find that adverse‐selection costs constitute a nontrivial portion of the transaction costs in index options trading. Approximately one‐third of the spread can be accounted for by information asymmetry costs. A further analysis indicates that adverse‐selection costs are positively related with option delta. Our regression analysis shows that option‐related variables are significantly associated with estimated information asymmetry costs, even when controlling for proxies for informed trading in the index futures market. Finally, we find the evidence that foreign investors are better informed compared to domestic investors and that domestic institutions have an edge in terms of information over domestic individuals. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1118–1146, 2008     

亚太金融并购两难困局

并购可能让收购方在前途光明的亚太地区迅速找到立足点,但最终,绝大多数并购却未能给股东创造价值     

The impact of railroad mergers on grain transportation markets: a Kansas case study

While there have been many studies of the impact of railroad deregulation on agricultural transportation markets there have been very few that address the impact of railroad mergers on rail grain prices and the distribution of efficiency gains. The purpose of this paper is to add to the sparse literature regarding the effect of railroad mergers on agricultural transportation markets. Given the ever declining number of Class I railroads, this research is very timely.The specific objectives of the research are as follows: (1) Analyze the impact of the Burlington Northern (BN)–Santa Fe (SF) merger on the ability of the BNSF to increase prices on movements of Kansas wheat to Houston, Texas. (2) Analyze the impact of the Union Pacific (UP)–Southern Pacific (SP) merger on the ability of the UPSP to increase prices on movements of Kansas wheat to Houston, Texas. (3) Analyze changes in Kansas wheat logistics system costs as a result of the BN–SF and UP–SP mergers.Two models are developed to achieve the objectives of the study. A network model of the wheat logistics system is used to identify the least cost transportation routes from the Kansas study area to the market at Houston, Texas. A profit improvement algorithm is developed to measure the amount by which railroads can raise their prices above variable cost.The BNSF and UPSP achieve only minor increases in market power (measured by the ratio of revenue to variable cost) because the merged railroads have only slight advantages in cost relative to other railroads that serve the same areas as the merged railroads. Wheat shippers benefit from merger-induced reductions in transportation and handling costs. Shippers are likely to capture a significant share of these cost reductions since intrarailroad competition is present after the mergers. Transport cost reductions accompany mergers due to more direct routing of wheat shipments and the assumption that the merged railroad operates at the costs of the lower cost partner.     

Hamiltonian Approaches to The Analysis of External Debt

This paper investigates the borrowing aspect of LDC's debt problems from a short run and a borrower's perspective, taking “Hamiltonian” approaches. In analyzing a dynamic external debt problem, other studies have adopted a single-objective of maximizing intertemporal utility. This paper explores the optimum rate of external borrowing with different objectives and assumptions that may be more realistic for the economic planners of the developing countries. Altogether four cases are analyzed. The important finding is that even though all four cases exhibit the so called “bang-bang” phenomena, all four cases produce a different optimum rate of external borrowing with different policy implications. [400]