Signal Jamming in Pretrial Negotiation with Multiple Defendants

This article analyzes the pretrial settlement process among an uninformed plaintiff and multiple defendants who share information about the winning chances of their cases. We show that when the chances are negatively correlated, cross-type subsidization occurs to circumvent the possibility of signal jamming, that is, the settlement offer of a strong defendant (a weak defendant) is distorted upward (downward), as far as the no-distortion equilibrium is not viable. In this equilibrium, the plaintiff settles with defendants with probability one.     

韩国建国大学商住综合大厦CM模式研究

CM模式是由业主委托CM单位,以一个承包商的身份,采取设计与施工相互搭接的方式进行施工管理,在一定程度上影响或参与设计,并直接承担或组织分包商施工的一种工程承包模式。以韩国超高层建筑设计和施工阶段管理的CM模式进行了研究,提出了超高层建筑中应用CM模式的关键问题和解决方法,为CM模式的深入应用提供了部分参考。     

A bootstrap theory for weakly integrated processes

This paper develops a bootstrap theory for models including autoregressive time series with roots approaching to unity as the sample size increases. In particular, we consider the processes with roots converging to unity with rates slower than n^-1$n^{-1}$. We call such processes weakly   integrated processes. It is established that the bootstrap relying on the estimated autoregressive model is generally consistent for the weakly integrated processes. Both the sample and bootstrap statistics of the weakly integrated processes are shown to yield the same normal asymptotics. Moreover, for the asymptotically pivotal statistics of the weakly integrated processes, the bootstrap is expected to provide an asymptotic refinement and give better approximations for the finite sample distributions than the first order asymptotic theory. For the weakly integrated processes, the magnitudes of potential refinements by the bootstrap are shown to be proportional to the rate at which the root of the underlying process converges to unity. The order of boostrap refinement can be as large as o(n^-1/2+?)$o(n^{-1/2+?})$ for any ?>0$?>0$. Our theory helps to explain the actual improvements observed by many practitioners, which are made by the use of the bootstrap in analyzing the models with roots close to unity.     

Functional regression of continuous state distributions

In this paper, we consider a regression model to study the distributional relationship between economic variables. Unlike the classical regression dealing exclusively with mean relationship, our model can be used to analyze the entire dependent structure in distribution. Technically, we treat density functions as random elements and represent the regression relationship as a compact linear operator in the Hilbert spaces of square integrable functions. We propose a consistent estimation procedure for our model, and develop a test to investigate the dependent structure of moments. An empirical example is provided to illustrate how our methodology can be implemented in practical applications.     

Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies

Research summary : We provide evidence that founder chief executive officers (CEOs) of large S&P 1500 companies are more overconfident than their nonfounder counterparts (“professional CEOs”). We measure overconfidence via tone of CEO tweets, tone of CEO statements during earnings conference calls, management earnings forecasts, and CEO option‐exercise behavior. Compared with professional CEOs, founder CEOs use more optimistic language on Twitter and during earnings conference calls. In addition, founder CEOs are more likely to issue earnings forecasts that are too high; they are also more likely to perceive their firms to be undervalued, as implied by their option‐exercise behavior. We provide evidence that, to date, investors appear unaware of this “overconfidence bias” among founders. Managerial summary : This article helps to explain why firms managed by founder chief executive officers (CEOs) behave differently from those managed by professional CEOs. We study a sample of S&P 1500 firms and find strong evidence that founder CEOs are more overconfident than professional CEOs. To date, investors appear unaware of this overconfidence bias among founders. Our study should help firm stakeholders, including investors, employees, suppliers, and customers, put the statements and actions of founder CEOs in perspective. Our study should also help members of corporate boards make more informed decisions about whether to retain (or bring back) founder CEOs or hire professional CEOs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

亚太金融并购两难困局

并购可能让收购方在前途光明的亚太地区迅速找到立足点,但最终,绝大多数并购却未能给股东创造价值     

PRIVATE BENEFITS: OWNERSHIP VERSUS CONTROL

We empirically decompose private benefits into benefits accruing from ownership and benefits accruing from control. We document that private benefits increase slowly with respect to the ownership level but increase rapidly with respect to the blockholder's likelihood of exercising control. The decomposition of private benefits allows us to quantify the magnitude of nonpecuniary private benefits by examining the block premium when the blockholder's likelihood of exercising control is close to zero. We find that the size of nonpecuniary private benefits ranges from 0.61% to 5.92% of the share price, or 18% to 29% of the total private benefits.