Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia: A Bottom-Up Default Analysis

Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) approach, which allows projecting corporate probabilities of default (PDs) under different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular, a protracted recession and the ensuing currency depreciation could erode buffers on corporate balance sheets, pushing up the probabilities of default (PDs) in the corporate sector to the high levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a low-probability scenario, the results suggest the need to closely monitor vulnerabilities and strengthen contingency plans.     

Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of “BRICS”

We test the occurrence of periodically recurring rational bubbles in the exchange rate of each of the “BRICS” countries currency relative to the US dollar. The forward exchange rate is used as a proxy for the expected exchange rate, different Purchasing Parity Power (PPP)-based rules for the fundamental exchange rate are considered, and its initial value is endogenously determined. For the chosen model, the regime switching equation satisfactorily fits the data, confirming the presence of rational bubbles for all countries. The dynamics of the exchange rate series for each country is interpreted with the help of the estimated bubbles. The bubbles are compared across countries, found to be cointegrated, and this is interpreted as evidence of the international transmission of exchange rate shocks between these countries.     

Assessing evaluation: Why student engages or resists to active learning?

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - This research shows, on a wide dataset of students, that evaluation methods to promote active learning improve students’ academic...     

Artificial intelligence-based systems applied in industrial marketing: An historical overview,current and future insights

Intelligent systems have particular potentialities and strengths to support decisional situations faced by companies, especially those of a strategic nature, where good strategic intelligence is necessary. In this paper, we carry out an historical literature review of artificial intelligence-based systems applied to marketing, covering a time period of several decades (from the 1970s to the present day), with special focus on applications to industrial marketing. A detailed review is presented, along with conclusions and some future insights. Then, we briefly introduce the set of papers in this special issue.     

Ecological uncertainty,adaptation, and mitigation in the U.S. ski resort industry: Managing resource dependence and institutional pressures

We draw on resource dependence and institutional theories to study how firms manage uncertainty in nature (ecological uncertainty) in the U.S. ski resort industry. Through resource dependence theory, we develop the concept of ecological uncertainty and explain its effects on firms' access to and management of natural resources. We then predict that firms adapt to ecological uncertainty with natural‐resource‐intensive practices, as well as practices that attempt to mitigate its underlying causes. Using institutional theory, we also predict that environmental expectations moderate these responses. Our results indicate that firms did manage ecological uncertainty by adopting natural‐resource‐intensive practices, but not mitigation practices. They also show that stronger environmental expectations constrained firms from adopting natural‐resource‐intensive practices and promoted their adoption of mitigation practices in response to ecological uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying common dynamic features in stock returns

This paper proposes volatility and spectral based methods for the cluster analysis of stock returns. Using the information about both the estimated parameters in the threshold GARCH (or TGARCH) equation and the periodogram of the squared returns, we compute a distance matrix for the stock returns. Clusters are formed by looking to the hierarchical structure tree (or dendrogram) and the computed principal coordinates. We employ these techniques to investigate the similarities and dissimilarities between the ‘blue-chip’ stocks used to compute the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index.     

An optimal auction with identity‐dependent externalities

We analyze the problem of a seller of multiple identical units of a good who faces a set of buyers with unit demands, private information, and identity‐dependent externalities. We derive the seller's optimal mechanism and characterize its main properties. We show that the probability that a buyer obtains a unit is an increasing function of the externalities he generates and enjoys. Also, the seller's allocation of the units of the good need not be ex post efficient. As an illustration, we apply the model to the problem faced by a developer of a shopping mall who wants to allocate and price its retail space among anchor and non‐anchor stores. We show that a commonly used sequential mechanism is not optimal unless externalities are large enough.     

Tourism donations in sacred settings: an exploratory study of visitor donations in an English cathedral

• This paper explores visitor behaviour in relation to making donations for Chichester Cathedral upkeep. It found that 94% of respondents were aware of the donation appeals and that 71% of them went on to make a donation, with the visitors aged 50 to 69 years and living within 25 mi of the Cathedral being the most frequent and generous donors. When asked to suggest what they would consider an appropriate donation, 44% of respondents gave a figure between £1 and £2. This paper argues that the present donation management measures at Chichester Cathedral are insufficient to bring the desired income and makes recommendations on the measures that Cathedral managers can implement to increase visitor donations. Among these recommendations, the most significant are the profiling of visitors, the identification and targeting of donors' personal meanings to give a donation and, in the case of Chichester Cathedral, to specifically target these meanings on their local, middle‐aged visitors.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Labor supply: Toward the construction of an alternative conception from post Keynesian and institutional economics

Post Keynesian and institutional economics have traditionally maintained a critical stance toward the orthodox model of labor supply, questioning many of its underlying assumptions. Nevertheless, this critical view has not led to the formulation of an alternative conception of labor supply that is sufficiently coherent and structured to be generally accepted within these branches of the literature. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to contribute to the construction of such an alternative. To do so, the article starts by analyzing the relationship between the reasons that lead to individuals offering their labor and what that activity can bring to human beings in return. Secondly, the authors present an alternative concept of what workers contribute at work. They then analyze how the decision-making process regarding the labor supply actually takes place. Finally, the article concludes by briefly presenting certain additional points, in particular how differentiation is an inherent feature of the labor supply.     

Some remarks on ranking opportunity sets and Arrow impossibility theorems: correspondence results

An earlier work by Dutta and Sen provides characterizations of a set of decision rules for the ranking of opportunity sets. This paper begins by demonstrating the redundancy of one of the axioms in the said characterizations and goes on to analyze in detail one of the theorems, the Generalized Utilitarian rules theorem, which is incorrect. Basically, we find that one of the axioms that the authors provide is not in all cases satisfied for the Utilitarian rules. In this paper, we discuss this issue before proposing an alternative characterization which preserves the spirit of the original authors.