Option-Implied Risk Aversion Estimates

Using a utility function to adjust the risk‐neutral PDF embedded in cross sections of options, we obtain measures of the risk aversion implied in option prices. Using FTSE 100 and S&P 500 options, and both power and exponential‐utility functions, we estimate the representative agent's relative risk aversion (RRA) at different horizons. The estimated coefficients of RRA are all reasonable. The RRA estimates are remarkably consistent across utility functions and across markets for given horizons. The degree of RRA declines broadly with the forecast horizon and is lower during periods of high market volatility.     

Overcompensation as a Partial Solution to Commitment and Renegotiation Problems: The Case of Ex Post Moral Hazard

In a Costly State Verification world, an agent who has private information regarding the state of the world must report what state occurred to a principal, who can verify the state at a cost. An agent then has what is called ex post moral hazard: he has an incentive to misreport the true state to extract rents from the principal. Assuming the principal cannot commit to an auditing strategy, the optimal contract is such that: (1) the agent's expected marginal utility when there is an accident (high‐ and low‐loss states) is equal to his marginal utility when there is no accident; (2) the lower loss is undercompensated, while the higher loss is overcompensated; and (3) the welfare of the agent is greater under commitment than under no‐commitment. Result 2 is contrary to the results obtained if the principal can commit to an auditing strategy (higher losses underpaid and lower losses overpaid). The reason is that by increasing the difference between the high and the low indemnity payments, the probability of fraud is reduced.     

健康、财富和福利

在更加宽泛的视角下，新证据揭示出较高的健康水平可以带来可观的经济回报     

Embodied ethics: Some common concerns of religion and business

De George's understanding of theology is limited to one of five commonly recognized models of theology, the orthodox model. This model is vulnerable to De George's criticisms. When religious ethics operates out of the revisionist model of theology, however, his criticisms lose their sting. Revisionist religious ethics, moreover, can make a fruitful contribution to business ethics. Such a religious ethic acknowledges the embodiment dimension of business activities, it complements philosophical analysis with the practice of moral discernment, and it recognizes irony as an active component in decision-making.John T. Leahy is an Associate Professor of Religious Studies at DePaul University.     

Stock Market Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets: Evidence from Internet Firms

Abstract:   We use the provisions of SFAS No. 109 , Accounting for Income Taxes , to examine the extent to which stock prices of Internet firms were associated with expectations of future profitability before versus after the 'market correction' in early 2000. We find that the valuation of deferred tax assets of firms with business models reliant on the level of web site traffic was significantly greater after the market correction. In our view, this evidence is consistent with pre‐correction mispricing.     

Research society: science and technology for the ages

This paper imagines a US society that is obsessed with survival over the very long-term, not just over the next decade or two but over very long-time spans measured in the thousands and millions of years. Given that Americans tend to be achievement-oriented, it is plausible that they could become enthralled with this ultimate challenge. It is folly to argue that a fundamental change in the focus of the national psyche from consumerism to longer-term pursuits will happen anytime soon but the paper suggests that dissatisfaction with consumerism, growing environmentalism, increasingly felt limits of non-renewable resources, the increasing extinction of species, and a tiredness with global power politics as usual and its seemingly inexplicable violence and terrorism can someday lead to archetypal change in our society. In anticipation of this change, this paper presents a roadmap of how we could get from here, consumerism, to there, focused on the journey of life through time and space. The paper also outlines threats that humans must address to maintain the journey of earth-life through time and space; and presents a broad range of activities designed to meet the threats and capitalize on important opportunities. Finally, the paper explores how society would be transformed to meet the challenges and what sectors of today’s economy could be expected to contribute workers to a bourgeoning science and technology workforce and concludes with a few remarks about the future to come.