COMPETING VIEWS OF THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper examines three competing approaches to the determination of the money supply. The first approach is labelled the pure portfolio approach, and corresponds to the orthodox approach to the money supply. The second approach is labelled the pure loan demand approach, and corresponds to the Post Keynesian accommodationist view of endogenous money. The third approach is labelled the mixed portfolio-loan demand approach, and corresponds to the Post Keynesian structuralist view of endogenous money. The critical theoretical difference between the latter two models is identified in terms of the importance of the private initiatives of banks in accommodating expansions of loan demand. The paper then provides Granger-causality evidence on the three approaches, and concludes in favor of the mixed portfolio-loan demand approach.     

Index of Consumer Expectations: Food Price Effects and Durable Goods Expenditures

The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), which includes expenditures on durable goods, has been adopted as a leading indicator of national economic activity. A rational expectations model of the ICE was developed and the economic determinants of consumers' expectations were estimated. Aggregate expenditures on durable goods were explained by an endogenous ICE and sentiment about current economic conditions. Consumers were more likely to purchase durable goods when they felt better off in the current period relative to the future.     

Selecting Pesticides and Nonchemical Alternatives: Green Thumbs' Rules of Thumb Decision Tools

This study of a sample of home gardeners indicates that rules of thumb, or heuristics, are used to select between chemical pesticides and nonchemical alternatives. Such rules of thumb serve to simplify otherwise complicated choice decisions. Heuristics commonly used to choose pesticides include how safe, effective, efficacious, and economical they are, whereas for alternative products consumers more often take into account convenience, efficiency, competency, and handiness. Generally, in an overall ranking of 24 individual choice attributes, pesticies rank low on these attributes where alternatives rank high and vice versa. Gender, age, and years using pesticides are significantly correlated with pesticide selection.     

Investigation of the Effects of Disclosure Statements in Rental Car Advertisements

State attorneys general recently proposed mandatory disclosures for rental car advertising. This study investigates the effects of alternate disclosure statements on consumers' beliefs. The results suggest that a shorter disclosure statement may be as effective as the one proposed.     

Cost implications of improving food safety in the Dutch dairy chain

This paper examines control measures for improving food safetyin the dairy chain, using an integer linear programming model.The chain includes feed (compound feed production and delivery),farm (dairy farm) and dairy processing (transport and processingof raw milk, delivery of pasteurised milk) blocks. Results showthat 65 per cent of the maximum possible food safety improvementcan be achieved at relatively low extra cost per ton of milk(4.27), fairly evenly distributed across the blocks. Highersafety levels can be attained by increasing the farm block'scontribution, but at much higher extra cost (44.37 for the maximumattainable).     

A contribution to the assessment of scenic quality of landscapes based on preferences expressed by the public

The purpose of this paper is to validate a model for predicting the public's preference for a landscape using simple statistical techniques. The model assigns numerical values to 42 landscape variables grouped into physical, aesthetic and psychological attributes. The landscape value is obtained using an additive value function. The results of the model on certain landscapes are compared with the preference expressed by the public in a survey of 183 people.The homogeneity of the survey responses was checked in each photograph. It was determined that means and standard deviations of the scores represent the true preference.A strong positive association was observed between preference and certain landscape attributes such as expression, soil use or colour. A marked negative association was detected with respect to landscape alterations.A linear regression was carried out to analyse the predictive capacity of the model. The independent variable was the global score assigned by the model to each photograph and the dependant variable was the mean of the scores assigned by the survey respondents. The high level of correlation obtained indicates that the model is a good predictor of the public's preferences in relation to the set of photographs shown in the survey.To complete the analysis of the model as a preference predictor, a multiple linear regression was carried out between the mean score obtained in the survey and the model elements. Attributes and variables that have the greatest influence on pubic preference were detected.     

危机冲击与中国贸易“超调式”震荡的经验分析

从总量层面、贸易国别层面以及BEC产品类别层面,对本轮全球金融危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的波动情况进行了分析。结果表明,中国进、出口贸易不仅在总量层面上表现出十分显著的"超调式"震荡特征,而且"超调式"震荡特征有着显著的贸易国别差异性和产品类别差异性。综合分析后发现,本轮危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的"超调式"震荡与当代国际分工的演进以及中国在全球分工中的定位有关。据此得到启示:一方面,不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发的风险进而转向所谓"内需主导型"发展模式,另一方面,缓解危机冲击下贸易大幅震荡应从构建国家价值链入手。     

Consumer Attitudes to Genetically Modified Food in Norway

There is a lack of public acceptance of genetically modified (GM) food products in Europe. Using a dichotomous choice contingent valuation methodology, we find that, on average, survey respondents with a positive attitude toward the use of biotechnology in food production, higher educated, younger, and male need less of a discount to choose to purchase bread made with GM wheat. Further, we estimate confidence intervals for the mean discount required for consumers to choose GM bread. The 95% confidence interval for the mean discount required for the respondents to choose the GM bread is a 37% to 63% discount relative to conventional bread.     

基于规模和位序差异的陕西入境旅游研究

为科学、准确研究陕西入境旅游发展的区域差异,文章借鉴研究区域经济规模和位序差异的成熟方法,选取2001--2010年国家和陕西省统计年鉴中陕西省7个重点城市的相关数据（2003年由于非典原因除外）,对陕西入境旅游的区域差异进行了研究。发现陕西入境旅游业发展空间差异较大,但有逐渐缩小的趋势,7个重点城市入境旅游发展不平衡且不平衡格局相对稳定等问题。在此基础上,分析了影响陕西入境旅游规模位序差异化的原因。