Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.     

Volatility, trade size, and order imbalance in China and Japan exchange traded funds

In recent years there have been reports of excessive price volatility and value differences between prices of exchange traded funds (ETFs) and their underlying asset values. The objective of our study is to shed light on these facts by taking a closer look at the relationship between return volatility, trade size, and order imbalance for international ETFs. Even after controlling for order imbalance, volume as represented by number of trades in one of five trade size categories continues to have a significant and predominantly positive impact on volatility. Both trade size and order imbalance are important determinants of the Japan and China ETFs’ price volatility.     

Entrepreneurial dynamics of the self-employed and of firms: a comparison of determinants using Spanish data

Entrepreneurship is viewed at either an individual level (self-employment), or a firm level (firms’ creation) phenomenon. We also observe the self-employed and firms that hire employees and grow, and others that do not. This paper theorizes occupational and firm-creation decisions and uses Spanish data on industry, region and time to compare entrepreneurial indicators based on official statistics of the number of self-employed individuals and of the number of firms, both with and without employees. The results show that there are important differences in the patterns of the determinants of growth rates in the self-employed and in firms and, within each of them, between those that hire employees and those that do not. We establish sound arguments to recommend the highest level of disaggregation possible in entrepreneurship studies.     

Evaluating the efficiency of municipalities in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The paper applies some of the latest advances of probabilistic approach to account directly for unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of efficiency measures...     

New R&D management paradigms: rethinking research and technology organizations strategies in regions

The R&D management paradigms of research and technology organizations (RTOs) have been discussed in the past. Academics have analysed their strategic challenges in view of the new demands posed by new competitive environments for their SME clients. New innovation models proposed recently have captured the attention of policy makers. The objectives of this paper are to analyse these models in the case of a particular model of RTO: the R&D units in the Basque Country in Spain, launched with the aim of improving R&D and technology transfer efficiency. This paper is based on an empirical study of a group of specialized RTOs (R&D units) and its objective is to analyse a new paradigm of RTO and propose a model to identify the critical elements that influence performance and strategic alignment between R&D performers (RTOs) and their partners (in most cases SMEs).     

The Production,Transfer and Spillover of Technology: Comparing Large and Small Multinationals as Technology Producers

Multinational enterprises are, sina qua non, the world's technology producers. In this paper, we explore the concept of technology production by multinationals, focusing on three aspects: (i) technology as a firm-specific advantage, (ii) the costs of technology transfer, and (iii) technology spillovers. In each case, we outline current views and debates in the field about the role played by large multinationals in technology production. Finally, we compare MNEs with small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) as technology producers. We conclude that SMEs face certain constraints, due to small size and inadequate financing, that raise their costs of technology production and transfer, relative to the costs for MNEs. On the other hand, their flexibility and use of unconventional methods can create successful mini-nationals in niche markets.     

中国的设备投资与经济开放

从传统的Solow增长模型的视角看,资本积累与政府政策对于经济的长期增长都是无效的.但是从内生增长理论的视角看,资本积累(特别是设备投资)和经济开放程度都是长期经济增长最重要的决定因素.长期以来,中国保持高速持续发展的策略主要集中于在市场化进程和贸易开放进程中鼓励投资,以及最近实行的鼓励出口,这一策略允许从更为发达的国家进口研发密集型的机器设备.在这个背景下,本文的目的在于探讨设备投资与出口是否如内生增长理论模型所言对经济增长具有长期的效应,或者相反,如传统的增长模型所言对中国的经济增长没有解释力.除此之外,我们还检验了设备投资、出口和产出在长期和短期的本质联系.在方法上,我们采用了协整VAR模型.我们的发现为设备投资和出口都是导致中国过去数十年中高速发展的重要因素这一观点提供了证据.     

Bank lending channel of monetary policy： Evidence for Colombia,using a firms＇ panel data

In this paper we find empirical evidence of bank lending channel for Colombia, using a balanced panel data of about four thousand non-financial firms. We find that increases in the interest rate, proxiing for the monetary policy instrument, lead to a reduction in the proportion of bank loans, out of total debt, of the firms. This bank lending channel amplifies the effect of the traditional interest rate channel, which leads to a reduction in total debt and spending when monetary policy tightens. Our evidence suggests that firm size matters in the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel： Smaller firms have a higher probability of being credit rationed after a tightening of monetary policy than （otherwise identical） larger firms.