Risk,rent seeking and the social cost of monopoly power

Some recent empirical studies that have estimated the social cost of monopoly power have included in these estimates observed monopoly rents as a proxy for the unobserved value of the resources expended by rent seekers. This has involved adding these estimates of resources wasted by rent seekers to estimates of deadweight welfare loss triangles so as to produce an overall estimate of the social cost of monopoly. The present paper points out that each firm seeking a monopoly rent flow not only may be uncertain about obtaining the flow but also about retaining it in future periods. It is shown that this is likely to cause the proportion of the rent flow converted into social cost to be well below 100% regardless of whether the rent sought is small relative to initial wealth and regardless of whether rent seekers are risk-neutral or risk-averse. These findings demonstrate that large errors are likely to be made in monopoly welfare loss studies if observed monopoly rents continue to be employed as a measure of the value of resources used in rent-seeking activities.     

The Nexus of Population,Energy, Innovation,and Complexity

For the past 200 years, humans have benefited from the abundant, inexpensive, and easily obtained energy of fossil fuels. Energy surpluses such as this are unusual in human history. In systems with little surplus energy, population growth is low and complexity emerges slowly due to the energetic costs it carries. On the rare occasions when energy is readily available, societies respond by growing rapidly. They must become more complex in response to the social, economic, and resource challenges of dense population. More complex societies are more expensive, requiring greater energy per capita. The process of increasing complexity necessitates greater energy production, creating a positive feedback cycle. Past societies have collapsed under such pressures. Population and complexity grew rapidly when the Industrial Revolution replaced economies based on annual solar radiation with economies fueled by fossil energy. The Green Revolution of the 20^th century is credited with preventing mass starvation, but it has made food production and sustaining population ever‐more dependent on high‐energy (low‐entropy) inputs. Some believe innovation will overcome the limitations of resources and permit unchecked growth. However, increases in complexity, innovation, and fossil energy are all subject to diminishing returns, and cannot continue to support population at current levels.     

Henry George and 'Rerum Novarum'

A bstract . Students of the life and thought of Henry George have accepted too readily his own opinion, expressed in the Open Letter that he addressed to Pope Leo XIII in 1891, that the Pope's epoch making encyclical Rerum novarum was aimed at Georgism The disposition of the Open Letter in Vatican circles remains obscure, perhaps because the Holy Office had so recently decided that George's works were deserving of condemnation. But there is documentary support for only an allusion to George's views on property in the encyclical. Nor can the reinstatement of Father Edward McGlynn and the reappraisal of George that it signaled be attributed to the Open Letter. George's views may have had significant indirect influence, however, through (1) national land reform movements insofar as they affected the course of Catholic social thought , and (2) the discussion of Georgism as a form of socialism. These possibilities need to be investigated.     

Information flows and adaptation in Tanzanian cottage industries

The aim of this research is to identify channels of information flows and their impact on business adaptation and survival. The analysis is set within a theoretical framework of information market failure and information flows. The paper draws on empirical data from a survey comprising approximately 400 small-scale entrepreneurs in dressmaking and woodworking industries at different levels of centrality in four regions in Tanzania. The data reveal that half of the businesses are growing and one-third have increased profitability by significant adaptations last year. Most changes occur in products and design. Customers and the media represent the most important sources of business information, followed by family members and business partners. Independent variables that significantly influence adaptability include customer relations, education, media exposure, social networks, and mobility. Associations are strongly modified by the entrepreneurs’ age and gender and by businesses’ size and location. The paper concludes that cottage industries in Tanzania have a remarkable ability to survive. Garment and woodwork markets are still predominantly local and competition from external businesses is limited. Access to business information and new ideas should be improved, however, to counteract growing competition from the modern sector.     

Selecting subsidy strategies for housing allowance programs

The market effects of alternative housing payment formulas are analyzed and compared for a metropolitan housing market using measures of efficiency and distributional equity. The effects of “earmarking” allowance payments are considered. Estimated market effects are based on a model of housing market behavior over a 10-year period. The results differ significantly from what one might anticipate based on demand analyses of individual behavior. “Housing gap” formulas perform better than percent-of-rent formulas. Certain characteristics of the housing market together with particular income redistribution effects of the allowances appear to explain the market behavior.     

Bayesian Estimation of Prediction Error and Variable Selection in Linear Regression

An important statistical application is the problem of determining an appropriate set of input variables for modelling a response variable. In such an application, candidate models are characterized by which input variables are included in the mean structure. A reasonable approach to gauging the propriety of a candidate model is to define a discrepancy function through the prediction error associated with this model. An optimal set of input variables is then determined by searching for the candidate model that minimizes the prediction error. In this paper, we focus on a Bayesian approach to estimating a discrepancy function based on prediction error in linear regression. It is shown how this approach provides an informative method for quantifying model selection uncertainty.     

Rent sharing to control noncartel supply in the German cement market

A challenge for many cartels is avoiding a destabilizing increase in noncartel supply in response to having raised price. In the case of the German cement cartel that operated over 1991–2002, the primary source of noncartel supply was imports from Eastern European cement manufacturers. Testimonies in a private enforcement case have claimed that the cartel sought to control imports by sharing rents with intermediaries in order to discourage them from sourcing foreign supply. Specifically, cartel members would allow an intermediary to issue the invoice for a transaction and charge a fee even though the output went directly from the cartel member's plant to the customer. We investigate this claim by first developing a theory of collusive pricing that takes account of the option of bribing intermediaries. The theory predicts that the cement cartel members are more likely to share rents with an intermediary when the nearest Eastern European plant is closer and there is more Eastern European capacity outside of the control of the cartel. Estimating a logit model that predicts when a cartel member sells through an intermediary, the empirical analysis supports both predictions.