A NOTE ON BIAS IN CAPITAL BUDGETING INTRODUCED BY STOCHASTIC LIFE

This note extends work by Young and Contreras and by Rosenthal on the present worth of cash flows under uncertain timing. In capital budgeting analysis, the use of the expected life of a project instead of the life distribution of the project biases the estimate of its expected net present value. In most situations the bias results in an overestimate of the expected net present value of the project. When the exact life distribution is unknown, the bias can be approximated by Taylor series expansion. The sensitivity of the bias to the discount rate, to cash flow patterns, and to income taxes is also investigated.     

Regret theory and policy reform ∗

This paper offers an explanation of policy reforms undertaken in times of an economic crisis. Our explanation does not depend either on conflicts of interests between different socio-economic groups, or on the informational imperfection about the effectiveness of the current policy regime. The single decision maker in our model experiences regrets when the uncertain reform outcome is worse than the status quo. We show that an economic crisis which reduces the status-quo income makes the regret-experiencing decision maker more eager to undertake reforms in times of an economic crisis, despite the higher utility costs of adjustments.     

PROMETHEE Group Decision Support System and the House of Quality

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a multi-step method that monitors customer needs throughout a product development process. The House of Quality (HOQ) exercise undertaken in the first phase of QFD is considered as the most important, since customer needs must be accurately translated into a set of technical requirements for the final product. This paper provides a PROMETHEE group decision support system (GDSS) approach that integrates the design preferences of the QFD team. We highlight the selection and ranking of the technical requirements in the HOQ exercise, where a group of multidisciplinary decision makers (DMs) in a globally dispersed QFD team is required to input their individual preferences. Our approach advances the HOQ group decision making context in three important areas. First, it treats each criterion and DM as unique in terms of the preference function and threshold levels. Second, it seeks a multi-criteria approach for the HOQ process, where some DMs may play a more important role than others on a certain criterion. Third, sensitivity analysis through the Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Assistance (GAIA) plane provides valuable information about the conflicts, similarities, or independencies between the criterion and the DMs, respectively. A case on an automotive part illustrates the performance of the PROMOTHEE approach with GAIA.     

ASEAN‐5 bond market development: Where does it stand? Where is it going?

Since the late 1990s' Asian crisis, ASEAN‐5 countries have expended considerable effort in developing their bond markets. However, the size of these markets relative to GDP has hardly changed. Can we explain this? And does it mean that domestic markets have not, in fact, developed? The article argues that bond market growth has been held back by a sharp fall in business investment, which has left firms with little need for bond borrowing. Even so, markets have developed in other ways, to such an extent that substantial amounts of foreign portfolio investment have begun to flow into ASEAN‐5 bonds. These developments have important ramifications. With the investor base growing and infrastructure investment likely to rise, ASEAN‐5 bond markets could expand rapidly, holding out the prospect that the region could finally achieve ‘twin engine’ financial systems in the near future.     

Weighted majoritarian rules for the location of multiple public facilities

We consider collective decision problems given by a profile of single-peaked preferences defined over the real line and a set of pure public facilities to be located on the line. In this context, Bochet and Gordon (2012) provide a large class of priority rules based on efficiency, object-population monotonicity and sovereignty. Each such rule is described by a fixed priority ordering among interest groups. We show that any priority rule which treats agents symmetrically — anonymity — respects some form of coherence across collective decision problems — reinforcement — and only depends on peak information — peak-only — is a weighted majoritarian rule. Each such rule defines priorities based on the relative size of the interest groups and specific weights attached to locations. We give an explicit account of the richness of this class of rules.     

AIDS treatment and intrahousehold resource allocation: Children's nutrition and schooling in Kenya

The provision of antiretroviral medications is a central component of the response to HIV/AIDS and consumes substantial public resources from around the world, but little is known about this intervention's impact on the welfare of children in treated persons' households. Using longitudinal survey data from Kenya, we examine the relationship between the provision of treatment to adults and the schooling and nutrition outcomes of children in their households. Weekly hours of school attendance increase by over 20% within 6 months after treatment is initiated for the adult patient. We find some weak evidence that young children's short-term nutritional status also improves. These results suggest how intrahousehold allocations of time and resources may be altered in response to health improvements of adults.     

Using Limited Information to Support the Decision to Launch a New Product in the Fruit Juice Market: A Teaching Case Study

Fresh Juice Incorporated (FJI) is in the process of determining whether it should launch a new fruit juice, Genetically Enhanced (GE) Juice. The GE Juice meets consumers' demands for a tasty, nutritious product and it would be the first new juice product in the last fifteen years. Before FJI decides to launch GE Juice, it must analyze the uncertainty surrounding market size, market share, and price of GE Juice. Finally, if FJI decides to launch GE Juice, then they must decide if they will bottle the juice themselves or outsource this process. This case teaches students how to discuss the strategic implications of launching a new product and develop a net present value and financial feasibility simulation model given limited information.     

Macro Prudential Supervision in the Open Economy,and the Role of Central Banks in Emerging Markets

In this paper we explore lessons from the global liquidity crisis pertaining to the prudential supervision role of central bank in an open economy. The crisis validates the need for external debt management policy in emerging markets. Hoarding international reserves (IR) is a potent self-insurance mechanism. However, it is associated with relatively high costs and is also less efficient in absence of assertive external debt management policies. In the presence of congestion externalities associated with deleveraging, optimal external borrowing-tax-cum-IR-hoarding-subsidy reduces the cost as well as the scale of hoarding IR.     

The intertemporal risk-Return relation,investor behavior,and technical trading profits: evidence from the G-7 countries

The intertemporal risk-return relation and investor behavior are both important pricing factors that jointly determine the expected market risk premium. Using the price adjustment process as a control variable, we find that the intertemporal risk-return relation is positive conditional on bad market news, but is non-positive conditional on good market news. This implies that good (bad) market news weakens (strengthens) the positive risk-return relation. The pattern in the distortion of the risk-return relation is consistent with short-term mispricing in which investors overvalue (undervalue) the stock market in reaction to good (bad) market news. We also show that ignoring the price adjustment process in the estimation of the risk-return relation leads to model misspecification and induces an upward (downward) bias in estimates of the relative risk aversion parameter conditional on good (bad) news. Our model of the asymmetric risk-return relation along with the price adjustment process is capable of generating the return dynamics that is attributable to technical trading profits. We suggest that the profitability of technical trading rules is not a violation of market efficiency, but a consequence of trading rules exploiting the asymmetric effect of price changes on the risk-return relation, along with the persistence property of price changes.     

Archetyping relationships with companion animals to understand disaster risk-taking propensity

Pets factor into the daily decision-making of many people. Importantly, various characteristics of these human–animal relationships are known to strongly influence pet owners’ risk behaviour and, consequently, their animals’ welfare during disasters. Yet, few studies have examined a range of such characteristics concurrently in order to describe risk propensity differences in these relationships. In this study, 437 Australian companion-animal (pet) owners reported human–animal relational, personality and attitudinal characteristics, to examine differences in stated tendency to act to secure their pet’s welfare whilst risking potential harm in a hypothetical disaster dilemma. Cluster analysis identified five archetypal profiles differing in relational, personality, attitude and risk-propensity characteristics, as well as in stated willingness to risk personal safety for the well-being of a pet. Results suggest that relational archetypes are an effective means of examining pet–owner risk propensity, to better understand owners’ risk-taking to protect their animals from harm during a disaster.