A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Twenty-five years of income inequality in Britain: the role of wages,household earnings and redistribution

We study earnings and income inequality in Britain over the 25 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on the middle 90 per cent of the income distribution, within which the gap between top and bottom in 2019–20 was essentially the same, after taxes and transfers, as a quarter-century earlier. This has led to a narrative of ‘stable inequality’, which we argue misses important nuances and key lessons from the UK's experience. In particular, there have been periods in which household earnings inequalities were changing considerably but tax and transfer policy was offsetting its effects on income inequality – in different directions at different times, reflecting sharp changes of policy approach. Means-tested transfers played a crucial role in containing inequality during the ‘inclusive growth’ period of the 1990s and early 2000s, as well as the Great Recession. During the 2010s, the minimum wage emerged as the government's primary policy tool for boosting incomes, but this happened almost simultaneously with cutbacks to means-tested transfers, meaning that household earnings inequalities fell considerably and yet net income inequality rose.     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.     

Better with coffee: Synergies and library patronage

Agglomeration effects are a relatively well‐studied phenomenon in the marketing literature, but few works have attempted to quantify the benefits to a library of having another business nearby. Taking advantage of a closure for renovations, we quantify the causal effect of having an open Starbucks on the gate count at a nearby college library. We estimate about a 10% increase in foot traffic at the library associated with the coffee shop being open. At the same time, we see no increase in demand for other library services, implying that the appeal may be to a group of more casual users of the library as a “third place.”     

INTRODUCTION / THE STATUS OF WOMEN ECONOMISTS IN US UNIVERSITIES AND THE WORLD / THE STATUS OF WOMEN ECONOMISTS IN UK UNIVERSITIES / THE STATUS OF WOMEN ECONOMISTS IN CANADIAN UNIVERSITIES / THE STATUS OF WOMEN ECONOMISTS IN CHINA'S UNIVERSITIES

Abstract

These Explorations, by eight authors from Canada, China, the US, and the UK, examine the current status of women in economics (with an eye mainly toward their status in the academic branch of the profession). The four sections of the work analyze results of surveys that show the distribution of academic positions among women economists in universities in Canada, the UK, the US, and China. The work also provides a short history of the development of committees and groups interested in furthering the status of women in the economics profession and suggests ways to improve the efforts of such groups and the status of women economists.     

A causal analysis of psychological climate and leader behavior relationships

Individual perceptions of the work environment, or psychological climates, have been shown to be important determinants of work attitudes such as satisfaction and job involvement. However, little is known concerning the relationships between psychological climate and other variables that may lead to or cause these perceptions. This research examined causal relationships among dimensions of psychological climate and leader behavior. Specifically, the investigation attempted to determine whether leader behavior caused psychological climate, or whether psychological climate caused leader behavior. Eithty-five foremen from a truck manufacturing facility participated in the study over a 17-month period. Results of cross-lagged panel correlations and causal path analysis indicated that psychological climate caused leader behavior. Since one individual's perceptions of his/her work environment can only indirectly be linked to another person's (in this case, the leaders) behavior, an intervening variable is required to explain these findings. This variable may be a consensual or organizational climate.