Modeling weekly Canary tomato exports

The European tomato market is characterized by a constant process of dynamic adjustment towards equilibrium. Furthermore, Canary Island tomato exports cause a high seasonal impact on market prices in the winter period. In these circumstances, an adequate distribution of weekly shipments throughout the year could contribute to maximize producers' profits. Moreover, Canary export levels show some degree of instability, clearly related to the changes in the EU trade rules and there is a long period, in the summer, without exports. The aim of this article is to analyze the long‐term movements and, particularly, the seasonal pattern of Canary Island tomato exports throughout the last two decades. To observe more clearly the exporter's decisions, weekly data have been used. The instabilities in the long‐term behavior of the series and the specific nature of the seasonal pattern should be taken into account, to capture the performance of exports accurately. Thus, this analysis is carried out using the structural approach to time series analysis, and the usefulness of spline functions as a tool capable of modeling seasonal variations for which the period does not remain the same over time is shown.     

泛珠三角与东盟地区的经贸合作发展战略分析

泛珠三角为东盟提供了进入中国最发达地区之一的最快捷的战略通道,而东盟又为泛珠三角经济发展提供了一个全新的大平台。泛珠三角与东盟,可说是在更广阔的范围内实行优势互补、资源共享、利益均占。本文通过分析泛珠三角与东盟地区合作的成因及制约两者战略合作开展的因素,并提出了进一步加强泛珠三角和东盟战略合作关系的政策建议。     

发展我国商业银行中间业务的现实条件分析

随着近年经济改革的逐步深入，我国商业银行经营中间业务的主客观条件发生了很多变化，比如对过度投资的有效控制；利率市场化进程的加快；金融法律法规的逐步健全；金融分业经营向混业经营的逐步过渡；商业银行自身改革的深化及人们收入水平的提高等，这些变化已逐渐成为商业银行发展中间业务的有利条件。通过多视角全面地分析现实条件，可为商业银行制定切实可行的发展中间业务策略提供依据。     

Economic inequality and burden-sharing in the provision of local environmental quality

A large, but inconclusive, literature addresses how economic heterogeneity affects the use of local resources and local environmental quality. One line of thought, which derives from Nash equilibrium provision of public goods, suggests that in contexts in which individual actions degrade local environmental quality, wealthier people in a community will tend to do more to protect environmental quality. In this paper we report on experiments performed in rural Colombia that were designed to explore the role that economic inequality plays in the ‘provision’ of local environmental quality. Subjects were asked to decide how much time to devote to collecting firewood from a local forest, which degrades local water quality, and how much to unrelated pursuits. Economic heterogeneity was introduced by varying the private returns to these alternative pursuits. Consistent with the Nash equilibrium prediction, we found that the players with more valuable alternative options put less pressure on local water quality. However, the subjects with less valuable alternative options showed significantly more restraint relative to their pure Nash strategies. Furthermore, they were willing to bear significantly greater opportunity costs to move their groups to outcomes that yielded higher average payoffs and better water quality than the Nash equilibrium outcome.     

Has financial market integration increased during the nineties?

This paper analyses whether there has been an increase in the degree of financial market integration during the nineties. To do this, we focus on stock markets and compute two alternative measures of market integration based on a refinement of the approach suggested by Chen, Z., Knez, P.J., 1995. [Measurement of market integration and arbitrage, Review of Financial Studies 8(2), 287–325]. The main advantage of this approach is that it relies on the condition of absence of arbitrage opportunities, which is directly related to the idea that more integration means less barriers to trade across markets — and does not depend on any particular asset pricing model. The evidence found suggests that during the nineties there has been an increase of the degree of market integration between stock markets.     

The persistence of abnormal returns at industry and firm levels: Evidence from Spain

We apply structural equation models to longitudinal data on profits of firms within industries to study the persistence of abnormal returns. We obtain a two‐way variance decomposition for abnormal returns: at firm vs. industry levels, and at permanent vs. transitory components. This decomposition enables us to assess the relative importance of the fundamental components of abnormal returns discussed in the literature. The method is applied to a panel of 5,000 Spanish firms observed over the period 1995–2000. We conclude that: (a) there are significant and permanent differences between profit rates at both industry and firm levels; (b) variation of abnormal returns at firm level is greater than at industry level; and (c) firm and industry levels do not differ significantly regarding rates of convergence of abnormal returns. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WHY DO GOOD COPS DEFEND BAD COPS?*

Policemen are known to support colleagues who are the subject of criminal investigations. Although we might expect guilty officers to defend each other, why do (otherwise) law‐abiding policemen defend those who have broken the law? We investigate under what conditions it is in the interest of a group to defend its “bad” members.     

Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies

This paper compares solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies. We compute and simulate the stochastic neoclassical growth model with leisure choice using first, second, and fifth order perturbations in levels and in logs, the finite elements method, Chebyshev polynomials, and value function iteration for several calibrations. We document the performance of the methods in terms of computing time, implementation complexity, and accuracy, and we present some conclusions based on the reported evidence.     

Financing Preferences of Spanish Firms: Evidence on the Pecking Order Theory

This paper analyses some of the empirical implications of the pecking order theory in the Spanish market using a panel data analysis of 1,566 firms over 1994–2000. The results show that the pecking order theory holds for most subsamples analyzed, particularly for the small and medium-sized enterprises and for the high-growth and highly leveraged companies. It is also shown that both the more and the less leveraged firms tend to converge towards more balanced capital structures. Finally, we observe that firms finance their funds flow deficits with long term debt.     

论股份制改革与我国商业银行竞争力提升

国有商业银行的股份制改造和提高对商业银行的资本充足率要求，使我国主要商业银行的资本充足率和不良贷款状况有了很大的改变。但是，银行内部的状况变化不大，银行仍然面临着资本来源渠道少、国有商业银行的公司治理机制不完善、资产收益水平低、业务经营和收入来源比较单一、商层次人才缺乏、信忠化水平有侍进一步提高等诸多问题。进一步提高我国主要商业银行的竞争力，还需深化银行体制及其配套改革，提高银行自身素质。