Fiscal policy and private consumption behaviour: The Spanish case

In this article we analyse whether the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is a valid approximation for Spains economic reality or whether there exist deviations from that situation which would be more in line with the conventional Keynesian perspective of the effects of debt on private consumption-savings decisions.Our aim is to contribute to the rather sparse empirical literature on the subject for the Spanish case. The analysis is based on annual aggregate data for Spain covering the years 1955 to 2000, and uses both the structural and the Euler equation approaches to test the neutrality proposition, and is thus to be considered as a generalization of foregoing work on the Spanish economy.The findings indicate that support for Ricardian equivalence is mixed, while we also find very little support for the Keynesian specification of consumption and fiscal policy.First revision received: March 2003 / Final version received: October 2003The authors wish to thank M. Ferré, J.M. González-Páramo, A. Marchante, P. Meguire, F. Pedraja, J.L. Raymond, J. Salinas and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions on this paper. We also thank the participants in the V Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Oviedo, Spain, June 2002) and the XVII Simposio de Análisis Económico (Salamanca, Spain, December 2002) for their comments. Any remaining defects are our responsibility. We also are grateful to the Institute for Fiscal Studies of Spain (Ministerio de Hacienda, Secretaría de Estado de Hacienda) for its financial support.     

消费者对可追溯牛肉的认知及其影响因素分析——基于结构方程模型

利用针对北京市城区消费者的402份调查问卷数据,运用结构方程模型,分析了消费者对可追溯牛肉的认知及其影响因素。结果显示,消费者对可追溯牛肉的认知水平较低,但消费者在信息强化后对可追溯牛肉安全性的评价较高;信息搜集和经济文化因素显著影响消费者对可追溯牛肉的认知水平,风险感知、牛肉重要性和经济文化因素显著影响消费者对可追溯牛肉的认知内容,但认知水平并不显著影响认知内容。最后提出相关对策建议。     

我国碳排放的空间分布与经济发展研究

随着碳排放问题对我们生活的影响不断增大,有越来越多的学者开始对碳排放的问题进行多方面的研究,但其中考虑到区域的差异化并进行定量分析的并不多,而区域碳排放的差异化对我们后续的碳排放政策设计又具有十分重要的影响。本文采用1995-2010年各省市的数据,对数据进行单位根检验和协整检验,数据通过检验后,再采用Period SUR加权检验并进行GLS回归估计,得出本文考虑的几个主要经济发展状况的要素与地区碳排放量之间的相互关系,进而提出各地区可以通过鼓励产业优化升级还有地区对外贸易调整达到对碳排放量的影响。在世界各国开始倡导和关注低碳经济、碳交易市场不断完善的趋势下,我们国家也应该更多的考虑如何通过各种措施达到在不影响经济发展情况下的碳减排。     

International trade,job training,and labor reallocation

A large literature studies the impact of increased import competition on workers' outcomes, however, relatively few studies examine which policies can aid workers displaced by trade. In this article, we evaluate the impact of an industrial job training program in Brazil on workers displaced from manufacturing sectors. We find that industrial training increases the probability of re-entry into the formal labor market 1 year after displacement by about 17 percentage points and is even more effective for workers displaced from sectors exposed to high import competition. This effect is mainly associated with workers switching sectors and occupations after training.     

On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world

We study the dynamics of inflation persistence in 45 countries for the period 1960–2008 using a recently developed test for multiple changes in persistence, which decomposes the sample information between adjacent I (0) and I (1) periods. We find that: (i) inflation persistence and average inflation tend to fall and rise at the same time; (ii) in some countries there are changes in the level of inflation which do not seem to be related to changes in inflation persistence; (iii) around half of the countries analyzed do not present any burst of I (1) behavior, and hence have stationary inflation throughout; (iv) for the other half, we detect switches of the type I (0) ? I (1) ? I (0), hence, inflation persistence, when it has occurred, has been temporal; and, (v) for about half of the countries in which inflation has presented I (1) behavior, persistent inflation lasted more than a decade. In addition, we find that in the last 50 years there have been mainly two episodes where long bursts of I (1) inflation took place simultaneously among groups of countries. In general, the “Great Inflation” occurred during the seventies and eighties in advanced economies, whereas it occurred during the eighties and nineties in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America.     

Spanish regions catching-up to Europe: an analysis based on the IB-MPI unit root procedure

This article investigates the pair-wise convergence hypothesis of 17 Spanish regions with respect to the European Union (EU) and Euro-Zone (EZ). Several definitions of convergence are taken into account. The IB-MPI unit root testing procedure is then applied. A simultaneous approach based on the gap in levels and logs is developed to study convergence. The empirical results show incomplete catching-up in six cases with respect to both EU and EZ, and complete catching-up in nine with respect to EU and four with respect to EZ. When taking into account the behaviour of both gaps and loggaps, we further get four cases of cointegrated regions with respect to EZ and only one with respect to EU. Finally, there are four regions that diverge with respect to EU, but do converge with respect to the EZ. Only Baleares diverges with respect to both of them.     

重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制研究

在突发事件应急管理过程中,科技研发支撑作用十分关键,亟需建立突发公共卫生事件科研应急体系长效运行机制。基于科技研发应急体系的复杂性、适应性特征,从主体属性和体系架构两个层面入手,分析重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系的复杂适应系统特征,运用复杂适应系统理论模型和动态闭环螺旋模型,研究重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制。研究发现,重大突发公共卫生事件背景下,科技研发应急体系具有复杂适应系统的7个基本特征,是典型的复杂适应系统;科技研发应急体系中,科研攻关专家组、诊疗医院、科技部门等科研主体具有各自内部模型,并通过6大标识进行聚集;科技研发应急体系存在事件—需求引导、主体协同、资源交互、成果转化机制。同时,新冠病毒肺炎疫情应对实践表明,疫情防控救治进程中科技研发应急体系存在并遵循上述运行机制。     

企业“钱荒”问题研究及对策——以内蒙古自治区中小企业为例

目前,“钱荒”是制约中小企业发展的瓶颈。造成这一问题的原因主要是：中小企业金融服务体系存在缺陷,自身规模小、风险大、信用度低,以及政府政策扶持力度比较薄弱等。因此,要改变中小企业的融资困境,应从金融服务体系、政府政策扶持和自身经营管理水平三方面入手。     

Intraday return and volatility relationships between the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets

This paper analyses the intraday lead-lag relationships between returns and volatilities in the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets. Using hourly data, we jointly analyze the interactions between markets, estimating a bivariate error correction model with GARCH perturbations which captures stochastically the presence of an intraday U-shaped curve for both spot and futures market volatility. Our findings show a bidirectional causal relationship between market volatilities, with a positive feedback. This two-way transmission of volatility is consistent with market prices evolving according to a long-run equilibrium relationship, and shocks affecting both markets in the same direction. Our empirical results also support a unidirectional cross interaction from futures to spot market returns. This pattern suggests that the futures market leads the spot market in order to incorporate the arrival of new information.