The interactions between natural and physical capitals in the tourist lifecycle model

This paper presents a model of the interactions between natural resources and physical capital in the evolution of a tourist destination. The projected trajectory of the number of tourists approaches the classical lifecycle pattern. The post-stagnation phase is analyzed within the model, obtaining different patterns which depend on the impacts of physical capital on both demand and environmental degradation. The magnitudes of these impacts are determined by the type of tourism. An empirical application to the case of the tourist industry in the Canary Islands (Spain) is presented, showing that the model can represent the general characteristics of the post-stagnation phase of a tourist destination.     

Learning by doing,spillovers and shakeouts

This paper studies industry evolution driven by non strategic learning by doing and spillovers. We characterize a dynamic process of cost and output changes and its effect on welfare and industry profits. The paper gives conditions for shakeouts to occur and analyzes the key factors affecting these conditions. Since shakeouts could lead to a long-run social loss due to higher market concentration, there is a role for a government to play in limiting unnecessary shakeouts. The most effective way to do so is to enhance spillovers.JEL Classification: L11, L13, O31Correspondence to: Michael TroegeWe would like to thank Hans Mewis, Christophe Moussu and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions. We also benefited from comments of seminar participants at WZB, Humboldt University, Northwestern University and the EEA/ESEM 1999 meetings. Part of the research was carried out while Michael Tröge was visiting Northwestern University. Financial support by the German Research Council (DFG) is gratefully acknowledged.     

产业集群内企业之间合作创新的理论分析

集群有利于降低合作创新的交易成本、获得合作伙伴的隐性知识.企业选择合作创新,其动机主要是解决技术的外部性、分担研究开发成本和风险、获得合作伙伴的缄默性知识、实现技术转移以及获得巨大的国内和国际市场等.对合作创新的博弈分析表明,企业要形成合作创新的联盟,该联盟必须满足超可加性;否则,其成员没有动机形成联盟,已经形成的联盟也将面临解散的威胁.合理的利益分配方案是合作创新的基础.该方案是合作各方讨价还价的结果.     

开放视角下的国家综合负债风险与市场化分担

随着中国经济金融的日益开放,中国国家综合负债的规模与结构在动态变化:一方面,国家综合负债的某些旧因素(如银行不良资产)的存在形式发生了变化,另一方面,国家综合负债的一些新因素(社保基金缺口、巴塞尔协议的顺周期影响和汇率波动导致的外汇资产损失)开始显现。从开放视角考察,中国的国家综合负债风险形势仍较为严峻。在政府承担社会性支出的基础上,更多地重视和运用市场化分担方式是化解和防范国家综合负债风险的基本途径,保持经济持续稳定增长是应对国家综合负债风险的根本保障。     

工业共生效益分析——以九发工业园为例

本文在深入阐述工业共生及其效益的基础上,以九发工业园为例,详细分析了涉农企业发展生态工业园带来的经济效益、环境效益和社会效益,指出涉农企业应立足农业特点,借鉴工业生态学原理,积极构建农工商结合的生态产业体系。     

Reinforcing the Link Between Contributions and Pensions: The Effect of the Population Aging

In this paper, we analyze a majority voting process on the earnings-related part of pension benefits in a Social Security system with flexible retirement. We show that the aging of the population may make it easier to implement one of the proposed reforms to achieve a delay in the average retirement age of workers, to reinforce the link between contributions and pensions.     

中美审计结果公告制度实施环境的比较及启示

审计结果公告在发达国家是一种通行做法,近年来我国也颁布了相关的法律法规,但完整的审计结果公告制度尚未建立。审计结果公告制度的建立是一个系统工程,受政府信息公开程度、审计模式、审计规范体系等环境因素的影响和制约。文章从以上环境因素着手,分析比较了中美审计结果公告制度的异同,以期对我国审计结果公告制度建立和健全提供参考。     

供应链风险分析及决策模型

供应链管理对企业参与市场竞争有诸多优势,但由于市场的不确定性、合作企业信息的不对称性及其他随机因素的影响导致供应链存在很大风险.笔者分析了供应链基于成本型的风险因素,并根据不确定多属性决策理论提出了供应链决策模型.     

基于主成分分析的多元线性回归用水量模型研究——以安徽省为例

用水量的准确预测对水资源规划具有重要意义。根据统计资料,选取了八项主要影响用水量变化的指标。按照主成分分析法原理,运用少数综合因子对影响用水量变化的原有八项指标进行了综合和简化,并研究其贡献率及综合效应;分析了用水量增长的特点,选用Logistic方程对综合因子进行回归分析;结合多元线性回归方法,建立了安徽省用水量模型;拟合结果表明,模型具有较高的精度;运用该模型,对安徽省2010年的用水量进行了预测;为水资源规划与管理提供参考依据。     

城市核心可持续发展研究的多学科调适理念

由于城市核心具备多方面的功能与价值特征 ,作者认为 ,其可持续发展战略需要从多学科角度进行融贯综合的研究 ,形成包含历史、创新、特色、环保、社区、经营诸多理念的新的城市化观 ,并以此为指导进行旧城更新 ,以达到城市核心文脉永驻、文化永续、魅力永存、环境平衡、社区永生、活力永现的目标 ,实现可持续发展。