Modeling services liberalization: The case of Kenya

This paper employs a 55 sector small open economy computable general equilibrium model of the Kenyan economy to assess the impact of the liberalization of regulatory barriers against foreign and domestic business service providers in Kenya. The model incorporates foreign direct investment in business services and productivity effects in imperfectly competitive goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit–Stiglitz framework. The ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment have been estimated based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialists in Kenya. We estimate very substantial gains to Kenya from regulatory liberalization in business services, and additional gains from uniform tariffs. The estimated gains increase to 50% of consumption in the long run steady state model, where the impact on the accumulation of capital from an improvement in the productivity of capital is taken into account. Decomposition exercises reveal that the largest gains to Kenya will derive from liberalization of costly regulatory barriers that are non-discriminatory in their impacts between Kenyan and multinational service providers.     

Trade Reform in the Partially Liberalized Economy of Turkey

Recent reforms in trade policy in Turkey have produced a foreigntrade regime that exhibits very little antiexport bias on average.A quantitative, multisectoral general equilibrium model of theTurkish economy shows that piecemeal trade policy reform, basedon first-best rationales that are appropriate for highly distortedeconomies, would not now be appropriate. Further tariff reductionsmust be coordinated with export subsidy reductions to attainsignificant welfare benefits. The dispersion of distortions,especially export subsidies, is more important than their level.A policy of harmonizing tariffs to the common external tariffof the European Community has virtually no effect on welfare.     

Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise

Abstract.  Foreign producer services can provide substantial benefits for domestic firms. We build on earlier monopolistic‐competition models of intermediate producer services in this paper. Results show that: (1) while foreign services are partial‐equilibrium substitutes for domestic skilled labour, they may be general‐equilibrium complements, (2) service trade can provide crucial missing inputs that reverse comparative advantage in final goods, (3) the 'optimal' tax on imported services may be a subsidy, and (4) in our dynamic formulation, there may be earnings losses for immobile workers along a transition path that suggest potentially important equity consequences of reform. JEL classification: F12, F16, F23     

Disclosure of liquidity and cash flow statements by Australian superannuation funds before Covid-19

The Commonwealth's stimulus package required the unexpected distribution of cash by superannuation funds to members during the Covid-19 pandemic. We focus on disclosure and maintenance of an operational risk financial reserve and reporting of the statement of cash flows in annual reports by Australian superannuation funds. These disclosures represent mandated sources of information providing evidence of liquidity levels for meeting cash payouts and disclosure adherence. Many funds did not meet their statutory reporting requirements. More members and higher union board membership as measures of stakeholder power explain higher disclosure in support of managerial stakeholder theory.     

Cyclical dumping: The case of steel products

Recently a number of studies have argued that foreign steel manufacturers use their export prices in relation to their domestic prices to smooth out fluctuations in home market demand. This phenomenon is called cyclical dumping. It is shown that the price discriminating monopolist model explains dumping, but its predictions with respect to cyclical dumping are ambiguous. Tests are performed for the United States, Japan and the European Community for each of three representative steel products. At conventional significance levels, the cyclical dumping hypothesis is rejected in all cases.     

The Economic Effects of Integration in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Some General Equilibrium Estimates for Cameroon

In this paper we quantitatively assess the impact of the CEMAC on its largest member, Cameroon. We find that Cameroon will gain between 0.41 and 0.62 percent of its GDP. Our decomposition shows that the part of the agreement that calls for further preferential reduction of tariffs is immiserizing, although given the low level of intra‐regional imports, the quantitative impact is quite small. Improved access to partner country markets accounts for about one‐quarter of the gains. We find, however, that about three‐quarters of the gains come from reduction of Cameroon’s tariff against the rest of the world. Moreover, our estimates for Cameroon’s unilateral trade liberalization show that it can gain marginally even more from full unilateral trade liberalization than it can from implementation of the CEMAC arrangements. Our results incorporate, in an otherwise small open economy model, the fact that Cameroon may possess regional market power, and we assess the difference in results with models that have no regional market power. Dans cet article, nous évaluons quantitativement l’impact de la CEMAC sur son pays membre le plus important par son poids économique: le Cameroun. Nos estimations indiquent que le Cameroun enregistrera un gain compris entre 0,41% et 0,62% de son PIB. La décomposition de cet impact montre que l’approfondissement des préférences tarifaires réduit le bien‐être, même si compte tenu du faible niveau des importations intra‐régionales, son impact quantitatif apparaît assez faible. L’amélioration de l’accès aux marchés des partenaires régionaux explique environ un quart des gains. Cependant, environ trois quarts des gains sont expliqués par la réduction par le Cameroun de ses tarifs vis‐à‐vis du reste du monde. De plus, nos estimations indiquent qu’àla marge, le Cameroun gagnerait plus d’une libéralisation commerciale unilatérale que de la mise en oeuvre des accords de la CEMAC. Nos résultats incorporent dans ce qui est par ailleurs un modèle d’une petite économie ouverte, le fait que le Cameroun puisse posséder un pouvoir de marché régional, et nous comparons les résultats àceux des modèles sans pouvoir de marché régional.     

Trade Policy Options for Chile: The Importance of Market Access

This article uses a multisector, multicountry, computable generalequilibrium model to examine Chile's strategy of "additive regionalism"—negotiatingbilateral free trade agreements with all of its significanttrading partners. Taking Chile's regional arrangements bilaterally,only its agreements with Northern partners provide sufficientmarket access to overcome trade diversion costs. Due to preferentialmarket access, however, additive regionalism is likely to provideChile with gains that are many multiples of the static welfaregains from unilateral free trade. At least one partner countryloses from each of the regional agreements considered, and excludedcountries as a group always lose. Gains to the world from globalfree trade are estimated to be vastly larger than gains fromany of the regional arrangements.     

Regional Impacts of Liberalization of Barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russia's Accession to the WTO

In this paper, the authors develop a 10-region comparative static computable general-equilibrium model of Russia to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization on the regions of Russia. The model allows for foreign direct investment in business services and endogenous productivity effects from additional varieties of business services and goods produced under imperfect competition. The authors then show that these features are crucial to the results, as the welfare gains are about 20 times greater than in a constant-returns-to-scale model. The results for the estimated gains vary considerably across the regions; this is principally explained by the ability of the different regions to benefit from a reduction in barriers against foreign direct investment.