Bankable emission permits under uncertainty and optimal risk-management rules

This article proposes a theory of banking of emission permits under conditions of regulatory uncertainty. Based on a two-period partial equilibrium framework, we examine the effects of increasing risk–in the sense of a mean preserving spread–regarding a future permit allocation at the firm level. We also examine the role of an agency to pool risks by re-allocating permits for a group of firms. Our results are twofold. First, an increase in risk may lead to changes in a firm’s banking strategy, depending on the third partial derivative of its production function with respect to pollution. Second, we define an optimal risk-sharing rule between agents to respond to political decision changes. Our results overall suggest that the bankability of permits may be used as a risk-management tool.     

Comparing Investments in New Transport Infrastructure: Roads versus Railways?

This paper contributes to the debate on investment in transport infrastructure and the allocation of public funds between road and railway projects. We model the two options and provide a consistent framework to appraise investment in typical new inter–urban road and rail projects. Our results suggest that road improvements have substantially higher returns than railway schemes. These findings cast doubt on the rationale of the new transport policy for the UK, which proposes to allocate more public funds to the (private) railways than total new investment in strategic roads.     

6. The capital and industrial output sub-system

The World 3 model has an acknowledged sensitivity to the capital sector. It predicts catastrophe. But the great weakness of the capital sub-system is that it assumes inflexible relationships and constants throughout which make overshoot and collapse typical modes of behaviour of the model. It excludes the possibility of adaptive flexible response to changing circumstances—one of the main characteristics of real world behaviour of the economy.     

Global imbalances,cross-market linkages,and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis

Based on multivariate Markov-switching models, this paper presents new results on the interactions between global imbalances, credit spreads, housing markets, macroeconomic variables, commodities and equities during Q1-1987/Q1-2011. We show that rising global imbalances and the uncontrolled development of the US mortgage and housing markets have been deeply destabilizing the economy, with various shocks impacting subsequently equity markets and macroeconomic variables. But we also uncover, surprisingly, that the cross-market linkages with the commodity markets are strong. Finally, we identify that the US housing market lies at the epicenter of the crisis through its multiple and highly significant interactions with the other variables in the system (including the global imbalances). Sub-samples and alternative time series estimates are provided to check the statistical congruency of the various models.     

Directed search, unemployment and public policy

Abstract .  We examine the effects of public policy parameters in a simple directed search model of the labour market, and contrast them with those in standard random matching models with Nash bargaining. Both finite and limit versions of the directed search model are considered, and the value of the limit model as an approximation of the finite one is assessed. As with the random matching model, job creation is the key channel through which the policy parameters affect the equilibrium of the directed search model. Both comparative static effects of the policy parameters and optimal configurations are identified.     

The composition of government spending and the multiplier at the zero lower bound

We investigate the size of the multiplier at the ZLB in a New Keynesian model. It ranges from around −0.25 to +1.5, depending on the extent to which the government spending is productive, substitutable or not for private consumption.     

Is Extending Compulsory Schooling Alone Enough to Raise Earnings? Evidence from French and British Compulsory Schooling Laws*

In this paper, I compare two reforms that raised the minimum school‐leaving age to 16 in France (1967) and in England and Wales (1972). Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that while the reform in England and Wales led to a 6?7 percent increase in hourly wages per additional year of compulsory schooling, the impact of the change to French law was close to zero. The results suggest that the major difference between the two reforms was that the fraction of individuals holding no qualifications dropped sharply after the introduction of the new minimum school‐leaving age in England and Wales, whereas it remained unchanged in France.