Impact of Underwriting Cycles on the Solvency of an Insurance Company

Abstract

This paper studies the solvency of an insurance firm in the presence of underwriting cycles. A small or medium-size insurance company with a price-taker position in the market is considered. Its premium income is assumed to obey an autoregressive process with cycles. Specifically, the premium income for a specific calendar year is influenced by the market experience for the last couple years. Under this classical AR(2) dynamics governing the premium income, an explicit expression for the ultimate ruin probability is derived, using a martingale approach, in the lighttailed claims case. Furthermore, the logarithmic asymptotic behavior of the ultimate ruin probability as well as the typical path to ruin are investigated. Then a comparison is made with the classical case where the same company operates on a market without such cycles. Asymptotically, the presence of market cycles is shown to increase the risk for the company. Numerical illustrations are performed on Canadian motor insurance market data and support the theoretical analysis.     

Search frictions,real wage rigidities and the optimal design of unemployment insurance

In this paper, we study the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme when the economy is subject to labor market imperfections characterized by real wage rigidities and search frictions. The US unemployment insurance financing is such that firms are taxed proportionately to their layoffs to finance unemployment benefits. Using DSGE methodology, we investigate how policy instruments should interact with labor market imperfections. It is shown that wage rigidities in a search and matching environment cause welfare costs, especially in the absence of an incentive-based unemployment insurance. This cost is mainly due to the distorting effect of wage rigidities which generate inefficient separations. We show that the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme – corresponding to the Ramsey policy – offsets labor market imperfections and allows implementation of the Pareto allocation. The second-best allocation brings the economy close to the Ramsey allocation. The implementation of the optimal policies clearly highlights the role of labor market institutions for short-run stabilization.     

Macroeconomics,finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model

This article assesses the transmission of international shocks to EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices using a broad dataset that includes 115 macroeconomic, financial and commodities indicators with daily frequency from April 4, 2008 to January 25, 2010 totalling 463 observations. The framework adopted is a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model with latent factors extracted from the dataset, as proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005). The main results can be summarized as follows. First, based on impulse responses, we show that carbon prices tend to respond negatively (between ? 0.2 and ? 1.2 standard deviation) to an exogenous shock that reduces global economic indicators by one standard deviation. Second, we find evidence that the responses are heterogeneous among the different kinds of carbon prices: CER futures prices tend to react much more significantly than EUA spot and futures prices. Third, the factors explain about 50% of the total variance of all variables in the dataset. The largest contribution is accounted for by the factor correlated with commodities markets, which explains about 28% of the total variability.     

DISAGGREGATING INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

Disaggregating a sector within the Leontief input–output (IO) framework is not a straightforward task since there is more than one possibility for the unknown technical coefficients of the disaggregated IO table, and more information than what is embodied in the aggregated IO table is thus required. This paper presents a methodology for disaggregating sectors into an arbitrary number of new sectors when the only available information about the newly formed sectors is their output weights. A random walk algorithm is used to explore the polytope containing the admissible combinations for the unknown technical coefficients of the disaggregated IO table. These combinations are then used to construct the probability distribution of the coefficients of the inverse Leontief matrix. The methodology is illustrated by disaggregating the electricity production sector of China's 2007 IO table and by looking at the probability distribution of the CO₂ emission intensity factors of the sectors of the economy.     

MARKET PRICE MECHANISMS AND STACKELBERG GENERAL EQUILIBRIA: AN EXAMPLE

This paper considers Stackelberg competition in a general equilibrium framework with a productive sector. The working of market power and the configurations of strategic interactions are complexified by the presence of a leader. Two market price mechanisms are studied: one is associated with the Stackelberg–Walras equilibrium and the other is linked to the Stackelberg–Cournot equilibrium. Throughout the example of a two commodity economy, several results are obtained about equilibria mergings and about welfare comparisons.     

On Stackelberg competition in strategic multilateral exchange

In this paper, we consider a strategic equilibrium concept which extends Stackelberg competition to cover a general equilibrium framework. From the benchmark of strategic market games proposed by Sahi and Yao (1989), we define the notion of Stackelberg equilibrium. This concept captures strategic interactions in interrelated markets on which a finite number of leaders and followers compete on quantities. Within the framework of an example, convergence and welfare are studied. More specifically, we analyze convergence toward the competitive equilibrium and make welfare comparisons with other strategic equilibria.     

Allocating provincial CO2 quotas for the Chinese national carbon program

In order to improve the efficiency of climate change initiatives China launched its national carbon market in December 2017. Initial CO2 quota allocations are a matter of significant concern. How should we allocate CO₂ emissions reduction responsibilities among Chinese provinces, assuming that provinces will not or cannot trade these responsibilities among themselves? In this paper, we allocate CO₂ quota from the perspective of cost minimisation. First, we estimate the national CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) function and deduce the interprovincial MAC functions. Second, we build an allocation model with nonlinear programming for cost minimisation. Finally, we obtain the allocation results under the emissions reduction target by 2030. The results are as follows. (i) The national MAC was 134.3 Yuan/t (at the constant price of 1978) in 2011, with an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2011. (ii) The interprovincial MACs differ significantly and decline gradually from east to west. Hebei has the largest emissions reduction quota, and Shandong has the largest emissions quota by 2030. (iii) Compared with other criteria of per capita, gross domestic product (GDP), grandfathering and carbon intensity, the proposed approach is the most cost‐effective in achieving the reduction target, with cost savings of 37.7, 34.5, 47.9 and 33.87 per cent, respectively.     

Which boundaries? How mobility networks across countries and status groups affect the creative performance of organizations

Research summary : Losing key employees to competitors allows an organization to engage in external boundary‐spanning activities. It may benefit the organization through access to external knowledge, but may also increase the risks of leaking knowledge to competitors. We propose that the destination of departed employees is a crucial contingency: benefits or risks only materialize when employees leave for competitors that differ from the focal organization along significant dimensions, such as country or status group. In the context of the global fashion industry, we find that key employees' moves to foreign competitors may increase (albeit at a diminishing rate) their former employers' creative performance. Furthermore, firms may suffer from losing key employees to higher‐ or same‐status competitors, but may benefit from losing them to lower‐status competitors. Managerial summary : Losing key employees to competitors can provide organizations with access to external knowledge, but increase risks of leaking knowledge to competitors. We find that an organization's access to external knowledge and its risks of knowledge leakage through employee mobility may be affected by whether its employees leave for competitors in a foreign country or in a different status group. In the context of the global fashion industry, we show that key employees' moves to foreign competitors increase (up to a point) their former employers' creative performance. Furthermore, firms may suffer from losing key employees to higher‐ or same‐status competitors, but benefit from losing them to lower‐status competitors. Hence, executives in creative industries and possibly beyond could welcome losing employees to competitors in foreign countries or to lower‐status competitors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paths to success: Benchmarking cross-country sustainable tourism

Given the complexity of the issues surrounding the concept of sustainable tourism, the current paper tries to provide a unified methodology to assess tourism sustainability, based on a number of quantitative indicators. The proposed methodological framework (Sustainable Tourism Benchmarking Tool – STBT) will provide a number of benchmarks against which the sustainability of tourism activities in various countries can be assessed. A model development procedure is proposed: identification of the dimensions (economic, socio-ecologic, infrastructure) and indicators, method of scaling, chart representation and evaluation on three Asian countries. This application to three countries shows us that a similar level of tourism activity might bring on different sorts of improvements to implement in the tourism activity and might have different consequences for the socio-ecological environment. The heterogeneity of developing countries exposed in the STBT is useful to detect the main problem that each country faces in their tourism sector.