What Drove the Massive Hoarding of International Reserves in Emerging Economies? A Time‐varying Approach

Existing empirical models fail to explain the surge in the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by emerging countries during the last decade. This paper provides an estimate of the demand for international reserves on a panel of emerging countries using a time‐varying panel smooth transition regression (TV‐PSTR) model to relax the assumption of coefficient stability in the relationship. Evidence is dound that the parameters are not constant. In addition, it is observed that the coefficients remained relatively stable until 2000 and then increased gradually and strongly thereafter. The specification provided here accounts for an acceleration that linear specifications fail to explain. Finally, it is found that mercantilist motives are the major driver of this acceleration.     

Heterogeneous preferences and equilibrium trading volume

The representative-agent Lucas model stresses aggregate risk and hence does not allow us to study the impact of agents’ heterogeneity on the dynamics of equilibrium trading volume. In this paper, we investigate under what conditions non-informational heterogeneity, i.e., differences in preferences and endowments, leads to nontrivial trading volume in equilibrium. We present a non-informational no-trade theorem that provides necessary and sufficient conditions for zero equilibrium trading volume in a continuous-time Lucas market model with heterogeneous agents, multiple goods, and multiple securities. We explain in detail how no-trade equilibria are related to autarky equilibria, portfolio autarky equilibria, and peculiar financial market equilibria, which play an important role in the literature on international risk sharing.     

Cross-country performance of Lévy regime-switching models for stock markets

This article compares the performance of regime-switching Lévy models across sixteen (16) international stock markets. From a cross-country perspective, the empirical application is dedicated to the study of equity markets in the Americas, Asia and Europe. The results are of interest for a financial audience in order to document the sensitivity of stock indexes to the intensity of jumps, under changing economic regimes (expansion or recession). We pick up singularities in Japan and Malaysia compared to other countries and regions of the world.     

Estimating the effect of a retraining program on the re-employment rate of displaced workers

In this article, we estimate the effects of a French retraining program on the re-employment rate of displaced workers by matching techniques. This program, called ‘Conventions de conversion’, was intended to improve re-employment prospects of displaced workers by proposing them retraining and job seeking assistance for a period of 6 months beginning just after the dismissal. Our empirical analysis is based upon non-experimental data collected by the French Ministry of Labour. Matching estimates show that this program succeeded in increasing the employment rate of trainees by approximately 6 points of percentage in the medium-term, namely in the 2nd and 3rd years after the date of entry into the program. This improvement is essentially due to an increase of their re-employment rate in regular jobs, namely jobs under long-term labour contracts.     

Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?

Could a monetary union in West Africa (either an informal monetaryunion of the non-CFA countries, or a possible future monetaryunion of all ECOWAS members) be an effective ‘agency ofrestraint’ (Collier, 1991) on fiscal policies? We discussthe ways, both positive and negative, that monetary union couldaffect fiscal discipline and the arguments for explicit fiscalrestraints considered in the literature about the European MonetaryUnion (EMU), and consider their applicability to West Africa.The empirical evidence, EMU literature and CFA experience allsuggest the possibility that monetary union could create thetemptation for fiscal profligacy through prospects of a bail-out,or costs that are diluted through the membership. We concludethat a monetary union in West Africa can be an effective agencyof restraint on fiscal policies only if the hands of the fiscalauthorities are also tied by a strong set of fiscal restraintcriteria, applicable not just for accession to monetary union,but throughout the life of the union.     

Ex post bidding and efficient coordination unemployment

Abstract.  We study the implementation of constrained‐efficient allocations in labour markets where a basic coordination problem leads to an equilibrium matching friction. We argue that these allocations can be achieved in a non‐cooperative equilibrium if wages are determined by ex post bidding. This holds true even in finite‐sized markets where the equilibrium‐matching process has decreasing returns to scale – where the 'Hosios rule' does not apply – both with and without heterogeneity. JEL classification: D83, J64     

Networks,weak signals and technological innovations among SMEs in the land-based transportation equipment sector

On apprend plus par la conversation des Doctes,

que par la lecture de leurs livres

Les épistres de Seneque

Translation by François de Malherbe,

Paris, Anthoine de Sommaville, 1639, p. 21

Small and medium-sized enterprises, because of their limited resources, use a variety of sources and are linked to different networks to obtain the information they need to develop their strategy and then to gradually organize their environment. Among other things, networks keep them up-to-date with changes in the economy and allow them to take advantage of opportunities to innovate, thus remaining ahead of their competitors. The networks – personal or business – with which these firms interact the most are usually geographically or sociologically close by, embedded in the environment, and are known as strong tie networks. They generally supply signals in a familiar language, based on habit as well a good reciprocal knowledge, which are easy to understand. In addition to this, however, the most dynamic firms also have contacts with weak tie networks, which are further removed from the usual behaviours of entrepreneurs and provide weak signals that, while difficult to grasp and decode, nevertheless offer new, pre-competitive information that can support major innovations. Very little empirical research has been done so far to test the probability of this theory. This paper reports on the results of a survey involving 147 SMEs, all in the land-based transportation equipment sector. It confirms the importance of weak tie networks as opposed to other types of networks, recognizing their complementary contribution to technological innovation. The organization's absorptive capacity is also found to be a significant intermediary factor in taking advantage of weak tie networks.