German unification: What have we learned from multi-country models?

This study reviews early simulations of the effects of German unification using three different rational expectations multi-country models. Despite significant differences in their structures and in the implementations of the unification shock, the models delivered a number of common results that proved reasonably accurate guides to the direction and magnitude of the effects of unification on key macroeconomic variables. Unification was expected to give rise to an increase in German aggregate demand that would put upward pressure on output, inflation, and the exchange rate, and downward pressure on the current account balance. The model simulations also highlighted contractionary effects of high German interest rates on EMS countries.     

Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?

Could a monetary union in West Africa (either an informal monetaryunion of the non-CFA countries, or a possible future monetaryunion of all ECOWAS members) be an effective ‘agency ofrestraint’ (Collier, 1991) on fiscal policies? We discussthe ways, both positive and negative, that monetary union couldaffect fiscal discipline and the arguments for explicit fiscalrestraints considered in the literature about the European MonetaryUnion (EMU), and consider their applicability to West Africa.The empirical evidence, EMU literature and CFA experience allsuggest the possibility that monetary union could create thetemptation for fiscal profligacy through prospects of a bail-out,or costs that are diluted through the membership. We concludethat a monetary union in West Africa can be an effective agencyof restraint on fiscal policies only if the hands of the fiscalauthorities are also tied by a strong set of fiscal restraintcriteria, applicable not just for accession to monetary union,but throughout the life of the union.     

Marketing in medium-sized manufacturing firms: The state-of-the-art in France and in Quebec

An examination of the relationship between marketing and SMEs raises two kinds of questions: the first relates to the categories of SMEs studied, and it goes without saying that their responses will depend on their size (very small, small, and medium); the second depends on the elements likely or not to bring out a marketing approach. In fact, we can infer a large part of this approach from the answers having to do with segmentation practices, positioning, and information research. These three practices constitute the foundation of this approach. For all that, to ask questions directly (especially with regard to segmentation) would lead to biased responses. Taking these premises into account and with understanding of marketing behaviour in the medium-sized firms as an objective, we conducted two surveys in two locations, France and Québec (Canada), in which only enterprises with 50 to 250 employees were retained. The results show that if the marketing approach of the medium-sized firms is always focused on client distinction (more than on the market as such), competition leading to positioning is very much a part of their preoccupations; finally, these enterprises commonly practice commercial intelligence. This implies structuring commercial activity in general and marketing in particular, the two not always well delimited. These last two traits differentiate them from the other categories of SMEs, the very small enterprises (VSEs) and the small enterprises (SEs).

Pollution in strategic multilateral exchange: Taxing emissions or trading on permit markets?

We introduce polluting emissions in a sequential noncooperative oligopoly model of bilateral exchange. In one sector, a leader and a follower use polluting technologies which create negative externalities on the payoffs of strategic traders who belong to the other sector. By modeling emissions as a negative externality, we show that the leader pollutes more (less) than the follower when strategies are substitutes (complements). Then, we consider the implementation of public policies to control the levels of emissions, namely, two taxation mechanisms and a permit market. We study the effects of these public policies. Moreover, we determine the conditions under which these public policies can implement a Pareto-improving allocation.     

Incomplete information,idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns

When investors have incomplete information, expected returns, as measured by an econometrician, deviate from those predicted by standard asset pricing models by including a term that is the product of the stock’s idiosyncratic volatility and the investors’ aggregated forecast errors. If investors are biased this term generates a relation between idiosyncratic volatility and expected stocks returns. Relying on forecast revisions from IBES, we construct a new variable that proxies for this term and show that it explains a significant part of the empirical relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns.     

Globalisation,industrial diversification and productivity growth in large European R&D companies

This paper aims to assess the impact of both geographic and industrial diversification of economic activities on the productivity performance of large European R&D Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). Based on the worldwide subsidiaries of these firms, we measure the performance of the firms according to their level of industrial diversification and globalisation that we proxy with the presence and importance of subsidiaries in the EU, North America and Asia–Pacific regions. The sample consists of large R&D firms that represent about 80 % of total European R&D. In general, the results indicate a positive impact from globalisation on firms’ R&D productivity, especially in the US, while a negative impact for industrial diversification is found.     

Networks,weak signals and technological innovations among SMEs in the land-based transportation equipment sector

On apprend plus par la conversation des Doctes,

que par la lecture de leurs livres

Les épistres de Seneque

Translation by François de Malherbe,

Paris, Anthoine de Sommaville, 1639, p. 21

Small and medium-sized enterprises, because of their limited resources, use a variety of sources and are linked to different networks to obtain the information they need to develop their strategy and then to gradually organize their environment. Among other things, networks keep them up-to-date with changes in the economy and allow them to take advantage of opportunities to innovate, thus remaining ahead of their competitors. The networks – personal or business – with which these firms interact the most are usually geographically or sociologically close by, embedded in the environment, and are known as strong tie networks. They generally supply signals in a familiar language, based on habit as well a good reciprocal knowledge, which are easy to understand. In addition to this, however, the most dynamic firms also have contacts with weak tie networks, which are further removed from the usual behaviours of entrepreneurs and provide weak signals that, while difficult to grasp and decode, nevertheless offer new, pre-competitive information that can support major innovations. Very little empirical research has been done so far to test the probability of this theory. This paper reports on the results of a survey involving 147 SMEs, all in the land-based transportation equipment sector. It confirms the importance of weak tie networks as opposed to other types of networks, recognizing their complementary contribution to technological innovation. The organization's absorptive capacity is also found to be a significant intermediary factor in taking advantage of weak tie networks.     

Random walks,liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets

Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long-term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long-ranged fluctuations in liquidity, with an otherwise permanent market impact, challenging the scenario proposed in Quantitative Finance, 2004, 4, 176, where the impact is instead transient, with a power-law decay in time. The exponent of this decay is precisely tuned to a critical value, ensuring simultaneously that prices are diffusive on long time scales and that the impact function is nearly lag independent. We provide new analysis of empirical data that confirm and make more precise our previous claims. We show that the power-law decay of the bare impact function comes both from an excess flow of limit order opposite to the market order flow, and to a systematic anti-correlation of the bid–ask motion between trades, two effects that create a ‘liquidity molasses’ which dampens market volatility.     

Taxation of a Polluting Non-renewable Resource in the Heterogeneous World

This paper extends the literature on the taxation of polluting exhaustible resources by taking international heterogeneities and national tax-setting into account. We propose a two-country Romer model of endogenous growth in which the South is endowed with the stock of an essential polluting non-renewable resource and world economic growth is driven by a northern research sector. We consider the stock of pollution as affecting global welfare. First, we characterize the optimal environmental taxation policies. Second, we examine the impacts of national taxes. Their time profile determines the extraction path, the dynamics of pollution accumulation and that of world output. Their respective levels entail inter-country interactions by altering the efficiency of the world resource allocation, the tax revenues and the resource rents. We study isolatedly the distortional and distributional effects of local taxes. Then, we completely assess the overall impact of a unilateral tax increase. Finally, we find that, even if heterogeneous countries coordinate their taxation policies to correct the global environmental problem, their divergent strategic interests cause another global, non-environmental distortion in the allocation of the resource.     

Flawed Economic Models Have Misled RPM Policy: Changes in Canada,Europe and the United States

Some of the influential literature that supports the resale price maintenance efficiency view is flawed when it relies on presale services that do not modify the value-in-use of a good. Crucially, we consider that value-in-use may differ from prepurchase perceived value. We apply the value-in-use standard, which exposes the loss in consumer surplus in Bork’s model and reveals that even Bork’s dissenters significantly underestimate their calculated losses to inframarginal consumers. When consumer surplus is the antitrust/competition policy standard, our results suggest that a rule-of-reason regime where authorities or agencies bear the burden of proof can be unfavourable to consumers.