快速城镇化对山东省粮食生产的挑战

随着经济的快速发展,中国城镇化水平不断提高。在快速城镇化发展过程中,大量耕地资源被城市建设占用,大批农村劳动力进入城市,农业水资源紧张态势日趋严峻,农业产业结构调整使粮食作物种植面积不断减少,这些都对粮食生产和粮食安全产生了不利影响。因此,要协调好城镇化发展和粮食生产的关系,合理规划城镇用地,以保障粮食生产及安全。     

Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models

Copulas provide an attractive approach to the construction of multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of forecasting the tail-dependences explicitly. Most of the available approaches are only able to estimate tail-dependences and correlations via nuisance parameters, and cannot be used for either interpretation or forecasting. We propose a general Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting tail-dependences and correlations as explicit functions of covariates, with the aim of improving the copula forecasting performance. The proposed covariate-dependent copula model also allows for Bayesian variable selection from among the covariates of the marginal models, as well as the copula density. The copulas that we study include the Joe-Clayton copula, the Clayton copula, the Gumbel copula and the Student’s $t$-copula. Posterior inference is carried out using an efficient MCMC simulation method. Our approach is applied to both simulated data and the S&P 100 and S&P 600 stock indices. The forecasting performance of the proposed approach is compared with those of other modeling strategies based on log predictive scores. A value-at-risk evaluation is also performed for the model comparisons.     

Supply chain integration and operational performance: The contingency effects of production systems

The boundary conditions of supply chain integration (SCI) have been widely studied in order to find out when SCI is applicable and effective. However, prior studies have mainly focused on external contextual factors, such as supply complexity, environmental uncertainty and country-level infrastructure. This study contributes to the SCI literature by examining the contingency effects of internal production systems on the relationship between supplier integration, customer integration and operational performance. Based on organizational information processing theory, we provide evidence to show that the impact of supplier and customer integration on operational performance varies across production systems, such as one-of-a-kind production, batch production and mass production systems. The empirical results also reveal how supplier and customer integration can be matched with different configurations of production systems in order to achieve the desired quality, flexibility, delivery or cost performance.     

中国外贸增长方式转变绩效的实证研究——基于江苏数据

本文通过建立外贸增长方式综合评价体系,以江苏数据为例,对外贸增长方式转变绩效进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：量性指标显示外贸规模不断扩大,业绩突出;结构指标显示外贸结构提升业绩平平,虽然结构指标在波动中不断优化,但是优化程度不够;效益指标显示外贸效益逐渐上升,但环境效益指标较差。从总体上来看,转变外贸增长方式的任务仍然十分艰巨。     

上市公司控股股东增持动机

以我国A股市场中在2008年和2011年控股股东增持股份的上市公司为研究对象,研究控股股东增持股份的原因。研究发现:增持可能是大股东在一定政治目的下结合公司自身财务情况而采取的行为。     

基于TIS的我国乡村旅游地形象设计

本文引入TI(S旅游形象系统)这一现代旅游形象设计的先进理念和方法,从理念基础(MI)、行为准则(BI)、视觉形象(VI)、听觉形象(HI)和风情识别(FI)五个方面对我国乡村旅游地形象设计与塑造中存在的问题和不足进行了探讨,并提出了一些基本的思路和对策。     

A multiregional model of China and its application

China's rapid economic transformation since 1979 has been accompanied by a stark regional disparity with the coastal provinces integrating swiftly into the world markets while inland regions lagging far behind in the industrialisation process. The growth imbalance has placed China's provinces into different stages of development and called for different policy responses to deal with different challenges they are facing. Similarly, a national policy initiated by the central government is likely to be interpreted and implemented in different ways when local governments take into consideration the different conditions in their localities. Therefore, it would be extremely valuable for policy makers and researchers to have an analytical tool that is capable of studying interactions among the provincial economies and the dynamic relationship between the centre and local governments. The multiregional econometric model of China presented in this paper is the first attempt to provide such a tool. The pioneering model consists of over 1200 equations, covering 30 provinces of China that are linked by inter-regional flows of goods and services. The model is used to study the impact of fiscal recentralisation in the 1990s. The counterfactual simulation results show that when China's central government diverted tax revenue from provincial governments, it achieved higher budgetary revenue for the central government but at the expense of lower overall budgetary revenue and slower economic growth.     

四行储蓄会研究

四行储蓄会是北四行联营事业的附属储蓄机构,也是中国近代最大的储蓄银行。该储蓄会实行会员制的经营方式,所有客户均为会员,利息之外另以会员名义向客户支付红利,吸收了大量个人存款。在资金运用方面,该会主要办理存单质押放款和公债券投资业务。因经营灵活,四行储蓄会社会声望迅速提高,至20世纪30年代,甚至有超过北四行之势,社会上有"四行一会"之称,其独具特色的经营方式与成功经验值得研究。     

欧盟宏观经济政策新导向——以财政同盟匹配货币同盟而重归平衡发展重塑国际竞争力

欧债危机本质上是欧元区运行机制内在缺陷在外部压力下的表面化,欧盟为超前货币一体化模式已付出了陷入剧烈动荡的代价。同时,欧债危机也激励着欧盟化解矛盾继续推动一体化进程。欧盟宏观经济政策的重点将回归实体经济层面,加强财政整固和经济治理,打造财政同盟实现成员国总体的财政再平衡和宏观经济再平衡,重振欧盟的国际竞争力。     

中嘉8号杨树转Bt植株的分子检测

用分子生物学方法对中嘉8号杨树转BtCry1A基因株系进行了检测和鉴定。通过PCR、ELISA和SDS-PAGE等实验证实,BtCry1A基因不仅存在于中嘉8号杨树基因组中,而且获得了较高的表达。PCR阳性植株Bt毒蛋白含量平均为3.32 ppb,Bt毒素蛋白分子量约为130 kD。实验结果表明,课题组前期获得的中嘉8号杨树转Bt植株具有进行生物测定和大田释放试验的价值。