Tax Reform,Sector‐specific Labor Supply and Welfare Effects*

This paper focuses in particular on the 1992 tax reform in Norway. In this reform the top marginal tax rates were cut considerably. We find that the impact on overall labor supply is rather modest, but these modest changes shadow for stronger sectoral changes. The tax reform stimulated the women to shift their labor from the public to the private sector and to work longer hours. A calculation of mean compensated variation, calculated within the framework of a random utility model, shows that the richest households benefited far more from the 1992 tax reform than did the poorest households.     

Forecasting currency crises by fractal analysis techniques

New approaches to currency crisis prediction are considered on the basis of the intensity of currency index fluctuations estimated by fractal analysis techniques. The ranges of currency index fluctuations within which the market remains stable have been defined. The experimental validation of results is exemplified by currency crises in developing countries and transition economies.     

Overzicht van buitenlandsche tijdschriften

Jaartal en blz. achter de namen der tijdschriften hebben betrekking op de plaats, waar deze laatstelijk in De Economist werden behandeld.     

An adjustment procedure for predicting systematic risk

This paper looks at the currently available beta adjustment techniques and suggests a multiple root-linear model to adjust for the regression tendency of betas. Our empirical investigate on indicates that cross-sectional betas are not normally distributed, but their distribution tends to normal after a square-root transformation. The evidence from the Box-Cox regression model and the multivariate normality observed among betas after the transformation, make the functional form of our model correct. Also, we observe that the disturbance term of the multiple root-linear model is well behaved. These findings make the ordinary least squares estimates unbiased and efficient. Finally, the mean square and extreme errors are found to be lower when our adjustment procedure is used vis-à-vis the existing procedures.     

Empirically Testing the Law of One Price in an International Commodity Market: A Rational Expectations Application to the Natural Rubber Market

The Law of One Price (LOP) is an important ingredient in theories of international trade and exchange rate determination. An important shortcoming of the existing empirical literature is that parity is typically assumed to hold contemporaneously. This overlooks the fact that international commodity arbitrage takes place over time as well as across spatially separated markets. Recognizing this fact, we expect to see parity holding for expected prices. A model which incorporates the expectations of commodity arbitragers is constructed and used to test the LOP in the natural rubber market. Results indicate that the inclusion of expectations may be of value when considering the LOP.