A principal component model for forecasting age- and sex-specific survival probabilities in Western Europe

The assessment of future mortality is of high importance in many areas where the allocation of future resources has to be planned in time, especially in social security and private life insurance. This contribution represents an extension of the classic forecasting approaches of Bell–Monsell and Lee–Carter. Based on a forecast of the first two principal components, age- and sex-specific survival probabilities for 18 Western European countries are predicted simultaneously until the year 2070. In addition to the correlations in the mortality trends between the age groups and the genders, international trends in mortality are captured as well. A major improvement in the classic Lee–Carter models is the adequate quantification of the uncertainty associated with the whole system of variables by stochastic simulation of all remaining principal components with simple time series models. The model’s easy applicability to further analyses is illustrated by forecasting the median life span as well as the resulting Gender Gap for Germany, France, and Italy.     

The Empire Strikes Back: Digital Control of Unfair Terms of Online Services

The authors argue that it is possible to partly automate the process of abstract control of fairness of clauses in online consumer contracts. The authors present a theoretical and empirical argument for this claim, including a brief presentation of the software they have designed. This type of automation would not replace human lawyers but would assist them and make their work more effective and efficient. Policy makers should direct their attention to the potential of using algorithmic techniques in enforcing the law regarding unfair contractual terms, and to facilitating research on and ultimately implementing such technologies.     

Variable selection for varying coefficient models with measurement errors

This paper focuses on variable selections for varying coefficient models when some covariates are measured with errors. We present a bias-corrected variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximations with shrinkage estimations. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, we establish the consistency of the variable selection procedure, and derive the optimal convergence rate of the regularized estimators. A simulation study and a real data application are undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed variable selection procedure.     

Issues in the analysis of co-authorship networks

Scientific collaboration is a complex phenomenon that improves the sharing of competences and the production of new scientific knowledge. Social Network Analysis is often used to describe the scientific collaboration patterns defined by co-authorship relationships. Different phases of the analysis of collaboration are related to: data collection, network boundary setting, relational data matrix definition, data analysis and interpretation of results. The aim of this paper is to point out some issues that arise in these different phases, highlighting: (i) the use of local archives versus international bibliographic databases; (ii) the use of different approaches for setting boundaries in a whole-network; (iii) the definition of a co-authorship data matrix (binary and weighted ties) and (iv) the analysis and the interpretation of network measures for co-authorship data. We discuss the different choices that can be made in these phases within an illustrative example on real data which is referred to scientific collaboration among researchers affiliated to an academic institution. In particular, we compare global and actor-level network measures computed from binary and weighted co-authorship networks in different disciplines.     

The post‐application labour market consequences of employment tribunal claims

This article examines the post‐application employment consequences for individuals registering complaints to Employment Tribunals following dismissal or redundancy. We consider several pieces of evidence: (a) the probability of finding another job, (b) the time taken to get a new job and (c) the pay/status of the new job. Our results indicate that age plays a significant role in aspects (a) and (c), while those who previously held managerial positions generally took longest to get a new job and found it most difficult to achieve a similar level of pay/status in their current jobs. Long‐term health problems/disability is associated with significantly worse outcomes on all three measures. Respondents whose cases were dismissed by tribunals without hearings fared worst in terms of obtaining a new job and the time it took to do so. There are, however, fewer differences by tribunal outcome in the relative pay/status of the claimant's current job.     

Supervisors and Presenteeism: How do Supervisors Accommodate and Support Skilled Workers with Chronic Health Concerns?

There is a broad literature linking social support to health, which includes evidence that social support from supervisors is positively associated with worker health. In addition, once workers experience a health concern, supervisors may play a key role in supporting workers, keeping them on the job despite health issues. However, there are few studies that investigate the day-to-day strategies supervisors utilize to support their workers and help them stay on the job despite health concerns. The study presented in this paper addresses this gap. Thirty-two supervisors from three companies were interviewed about their experiences supporting and accommodating skilled workers during flare-ups of a health condition. A grounded theory approach was used to analyze the text data and identify themes. Three key themes emerged from the data: 1) workplace policies provide the structure for mutual problem solving; 2) communication skills and existing relationships increase supervisor effectiveness; and 3) strategies were aimed at individual, interpersonal, and institutional supports. Supervisors regularly interact with workers to support and accommodate episodes of illness or pain. While supervisors employ novel and effective strategies, there is an opportunity to improve the range of strategies, better understand and utilize company policies, and facilitate appropriate communication about worker health concerns.     

How Adult Attachment Styles Relate to Perceived Psychological Contract Breach and Affective Organizational Commitment

The current study examines the relationship between adult attachment style and both perceived psychological contract breach and affective organizational commitment in a sample of college students with employment experience. Attachment style is argued to be an individual difference factor that affects how an individual perceives organizational events based on theory and existing empirical research related to adult attachment style. Individuals with insecure attachment styles were predicted to perceive more psychological contract breach and have lower levels of affective organizational commitment. The results reveal that individuals with higher levels of preoccupied and dismissive attachment styles perceived higher levels of psychological contract breach, and preoccupied attachment style significantly and negatively relates to affective organizational commitment. The relationship between attachment style and psychological contract dimensions was stronger for relational than transactional contract dimensions. Evidence is also found that perceived psychological contract breach mediates the relationship between preoccupied attachment style and affective commitment. Future potential research directions are described. The implications of these findings for managerial practice is discussed.