The impact of firm introductory strategies on consumers' perceptions of future product introductions and purchase decisions

In this research, we develop and test a model of the consumer's decision to immediately purchase a technologically advanced product or to delay such a purchase until a future generation of the product is released. We propose that for technologically advancing products, consumers consider both performance lag (how far behind am I now) and expected performance gain (how far ahead will I be if I wait to buy a future expected release) in their purchase decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that a firm's past product introductory strategy can significantly influence consumer perceptions of performance lag, performance gain, and the rate at which a product is advancing technologically. We also propose that these perceptions of lag, gain and rate of technological change influence purchase action and ultimately determine whether or not a consumer will delay or immediately purchase a firm's current technological offering. We investigate the above relationships by introducing a model of consumer purchase behavior that incorporates the effects of a firm's frequency and pattern of next generation product introduction, and test the impact of different introductory strategies on performance lag, gain, rate of change perceptions, and purchase action. In our first study we test our model in a monopolistic setting and show that, holding all else fixed, infrequent product upgrades and/or increasing intergenerational release times result in consumers perceiving larger performance lags and gains. We also show that, holding all else fixed, consumers with larger performance lags and/or gains are less likely to delay their purchases of the currently best available product. In our second study we test our model in a competitive setting and show that, holding all else fixed, a firm's past pattern of new product introduction can influence consumers' perceptions of the firm's product's rate of technological change. We also find that consumers are more likely to purchase products which they perceive to have higher rates of technological change. The key insight from this research is that firms have a strategic tool at their disposal that has been overlooked—the pattern of introduction of next generation products. Our findings suggest that a change in the frequency and/or pattern of introduction, in and of themselves, can influence consumers' perceptions of future product introductions, and ultimately influence their purchase actions. Specifically, we demonstrate that by better understanding consumers' purchase timing decisions, firms may be able to induce purchase on the basis of introductory frequency and pattern alone. Additionally, we demonstrate that by strategically managing consumer expectations of future product introductions, firms may be able to decrease the purchase likelihoods of competing products. Implications of our research and its application to the pattern and timing of preannouncements for new products are also explored.     

Guidelines for Agricultural Policy Over the Next Decade

This paper discusses the need for developing consistent public agricultural policies for Canada. Six "realities" of today are discussed and are proposed as guidelines for public involvement in Canadian agriculture. The guidelines are indicated to be applicable not only to public policy for agriculture, but also to other sectors, and are believed to be relevant well beyond a decade.
QUELQUES LIGNES DIRECTRICES CONCERNANT LA POLITIQUE AGR1COLE DES DIX PROCHAINES ANNÉES – L'article qui suit analyse pour le Canada la nécessité d'une véritable politique agricole. Dans cet ordre d'idées. six "schémas" qui pourraient constituer les lignes directrices d'une intervention des pouvoirs publics dans l'agriculture canadienne sont discutes et proposés. Ce cadre d'analyse pourrait être appliquée non seulement aux politiques agricoles mais aussi à d'autres secteurs et nous croyons qu'il serait valable bien au-delà d'une décade.     

Do physician incentives affect hospital choice? A progress report

The US health reforms of March 2010 introduced new provisions for physicians providing Medicare and Medicaid services to be given financial incentives to control costs. Physician payment mechanisms generating similar incentives are currently used by some health maintenance organizations in California. We describe an ongoing research project in which we investigate physician responses to these payment schemes. The question is whether patients whose physicians have incentives to control hospital costs are admitted to lower-priced hospitals than other patients, all else equal. We provide an initial analysis of California hospital discharge data from 2003, documenting evidence consistent with this hypothesis.     

Location and competition in retail banking

We investigate the impact of banking deregulation during the 1990s on consumer welfare. We estimate a spatial model of consumer demand for retail bank deposits that explicitly accounts for consumer disutility from distance traveled. This is important given the substantial changes in banks' branch networks observed in the data. Our model indicates that cross-price elasticities between banks whose branches are close to consumers (‘close’ banks) are larger than those between ‘far’ banks and more than double the cross-price elasticity of ‘close’ banks with respect to ‘far’ banks. We distinguish between thrifts and other banks and find that within-thrift competitive effects are stronger than within-bank effects or those between thrifts and banks. We use our estimates to predict the effect of changes in market structure on consumer welfare following the branching deregulation of the Riegle–Neal Act of 1994. Our results indicate that the median household gained around $60 per year from the changes. Approximately two thirds of the gains come from within-market changes in market structure. The gains were greater in markets with high initial numbers of banks than elsewhere.     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

INTERSTATE BANKING DEREGULATION AND THE CHANGING NATURE OF BANK MERGERS

We examine a sample of 443 bank mergers between publicly traded banks announced during the 1990s to investigate empirically the role of full interstate banking deregulation. The pre‐deregulation 1990s are characterized by value creation, with mergers involving a high degree of branch overlap experiencing significant announcement gains. Bank mergers in the post‐deregulation 1990s, however, fail to create value, and mergers with a high degree of branch overlap actually experience significant losses. Consistent with prior research, these valuation consequences are magnified for large bank mergers in the 1990s. Overall, our results are consistent with the broader literature on corporate control, suggesting that an economic shock can materially alter industry structure and the economic rationale for the efficient reallocation of assets through merger activity.     

The Family as Stakeholder

This article argues that if stakeholding has any validity, then the family should be numbered among the stakeholders. It then goes on to discuss how the family's stake in the firm could be distinguished from its stake in society and suggests ways in which the family's stake could be embodied.