Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy

Some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns, while others appear to be isolated to financial markets. We identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macro‐economic outcomes. The stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection. Our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with NBER recessions. An exogenous deterioration in our financial conditions index has strong negative effects in economic activity, and negative amplification effects on inflation in the stress regime. These results are obtained with a novel factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model with smooth‐transition regimes (FASTVAR).     

Business cycles,financial cycles and capital structure

We perform peridogram based cycle analysis of firm capital structure and find evidence that firms’ leverage is both persistent and cyclical. The cyclicality of leverage is supported by the trade-off, pecking order and market timing capital structure theories (Korajczyk and Levy in J Financ Econ 68:75–109, 2003; Bhamra et al. in Rev Financ Stud 23:645–703, 2010). Although market timing theory research supports persistence, previous literature dictates that the trade-off and pecking order theories may predict either persistent or mean reverting leverage. Our tests reject mean reversion in favor of persistent and cyclical leverage. We corroborate pecking order theory literature that predicts leverage is persistent. In these models, when firms’ investment spending is below earnings, leverage decreases. In addition, we examine whether firms change their capital structure as a result of business and financial cycles. Since financial cycles last longer than business cycles, financial cycles should have a long term effect on leverage. Our findings confirm the persistent leverage business cycle models that suggest firms change their capital structure due to financial and credit cycles (Jermann and Quadrini in Am Econ Rev 102:238–271, 2012; Azariadis et al. in Rev Econ Stud 83:1364–1405, 2016). We conclude that leverage is persistent due to the cyclicality of the financing decision.     

Zur verteilungsfreien Ableitung der Streuung von Regressionskoeffizienten ohne Voraussetzung der Nullhypothese

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Ein Index zur numerischen Bestimmung der Niveau-Eigenschaft eines psychologischen Tests

Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Index definiert, der den Grad, in dem ein Intelligenz- oder Leistungstest die Eigenschaften und Bedingungen eines ideal-typischen Niveau-Tests erfüllt, kennzeichnet. Der Index variiert in den Grenzen von 0 bis 1, wobei der Wert 0 einem idealtypischen Schnelligkeitstest (Speed-Test) und der Wert 1 einem idealtypischen Niveau-Test entspricht. Dieser Index kann aufgrund einer einmaligen Testdurchführung bestimmt werden; er ist abh?ngig von der Zeitbegrenzung des Testes und vom Leistungsniveau der untersuchten Stichprobe. Es wird vorgeschlagen, einen Test mitw> > 0,7 als Niveautest, einen solchen mitw<0,3 als Schnelligkeitstest zu bewerten. Die Berechnung vonw wird an Hand bekannter Tests demonstriert und einige Anwendungsbeschr?nkungen er?rtert.

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Summary An index (w) for determining a test as to its degree of being a speed or a power test is proposed varying like a coefficient of correlation from zero to one. This index may be derived from a single testing a posteriori. It is dependent on the given time limit and on the achievement level of the sample tested. From empirical evidence it is suggested to accept a test with an indexw>0,7 as a power test and a test withw<0,3 as a speed test. Numerical examples for calculatingw are given and some restrictions for its application are discussed.

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Herrn Prof. H. Münzner (Berlin) danken die Verfasser für die Durchsicht des Manuskriptes und für seine wertvollen Anregungen.     

The Economic Forces Driving Food Safety Quality in Meat and Poultry

This article examines the impact of regulation and market-driven private actions on food safety performance in the meat and poultry industries. We find that private actions account for about 80% and regulation about 20% of the overall reduction in the share of samples of cattle and hog carcasses, ground beef, and broilers testing positive for Salmonella if all regulation and private actions were increased by identical amounts.     

A Diagnostic Tool for Identifying Disharmonies Within Corporate Innovation Networks

In an article in the previous issue of JPIM , Vasudevan Ramanujam and Gerhard Mensch introduced the concept of mismatches in the perceptions and priorities of various functional specialists, staff and line managers, and senior managers. These mismatches highlight lack of agreement among key participants in the innovation management process within a given company and indicate problems that could hinder performance of the whole management interaction system. Here Mensch and Ramanujam explore the use of a new managerial instrument that can help technology driven companies that are caught in a stalemate in technology. The technique is designed to improve new product development and commercialization of new technology by diagnosing discrepancies in awareness, sense of urgency, and opinions on technological choices which may exist within the organization.