Free Trade and its Enemies

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Free Trade and its Enemies     

The Macroeconomic Implications of the New Basel Accord

This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of BaselII in light of recent development in the literature. It arguesthat although Basel II is likely to strengthen banks' incentivesto control their risk-taking, it may reduce credit supply tocertain borrowers, such as small- and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) and firms based in developing countries. Furthermore,Basel II may increase procyclical fluctuation of bank loanswhile weakening the monetary transmission mechanism during recessions.A widespread adoption of the "through-the-cycle" risk modelsmay mitigate these problems, but not completely eliminate them.This paper also considers whether monetary policy can be usedto counter effectively the procyclicality problem inherent inBasel II. (JEL E52, G21, G28)     

Competitiveness of Firm Behavior and Public Policy for New Technology Adoption in an Oligopoly

Economic growth requires that firms adopt new technologies. However, it may be insufficient or excessive in less competitive industries from the social welfare point of view. In this case, a government subsidy or tax is necessary. We analyze the optimum subsidy or tax policy for new technology adoption by firms when firms maximize the weighted average of absolute and relative profits. We do not consider that firms really maximize the weighted average, but the weight on the relative profit is used as a parameter indicating competitiveness of firm behavior. We show that the optimum policy is likely to be subsidization (or taxation) when the set-up cost for new technology adoption is large (or small). It is likely to be subsidization (or taxation) when competitiveness is large (or small), that is, it is near to perfect competition (or joint profit maximization).     

Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi‐regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare.     

Rice productivity improvement in Cambodia through the application of technical recommendation in a farmer field school

Innovation in rice (Oryza sativa) productivity improvement is a major goal for rice research. However, many studies have tended to analyse the various factors that affect productivity separately, while farmers invest their scare resources in farm inputs that impact on multiple factors in the real farm. This study assessed the effectiveness of integrated pest management practised during farmer field school (FFS) training in Cambodia on the production efficiencies, yields and profitability of rice farming. In total, 270 FFSs on rice cultivated in the early wet, wet and dry seasons were randomly selected from three provinces in 3 years to analyse the production practices and productivity using six cost-related factors: seed, planting methods, field management, fertilizer use, pesticide application and harvesting. It was found that yields and profits were significantly higher with the technically recommended practices (TRs) than with traditional farmer practices (FPs). However, the reverse was true for production costs due to the overuse of seed and pesticides in FP, neither of which are correlated with yield increase for both FP and TR. Thus, the FFS approach is a knowledge-intensive field management tool that enables the rational use of farm inputs and that is expected to be highly effective for sustainable rice production improvement.     

A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011

When a large-scale disaster hits a community, especially a water-related disaster, there is a scarcity of automobiles and a sudden increase in the demand for used cars in the damaged areas. This paper conducts a case study of a recent massive natural disaster, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 to understand those car scarcities and demand in the aftermath of the catastrophe. We analyze the reasons for the increase in demand for used cars and how social media can predict people’s demand for used automobiles. In other words, this paper explores whether social media data can be used as a sensor of socio-economic recovery status in damaged areas during large-scale water-related disaster-recovery phases. For this purpose, we use social media communication as a proxy for estimating indicators of people’s activities in the real world. This study conducts both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. For the qualitative research, we carry out semi-structured interviews with used-car dealers in the tsunami-stricken area and unveil why people in the area demanded used cars. For the quantitative analysis, we collected Facebook page communication data and used-car market data before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. By combining and analyzing these two types of data, we find that social media communication correlates with people’s activities in the real world. Furthermore, this study suggests that different types of communication on social media have different types of correlations with people’s activities. More precisely, we find that social media communication related to people’s activities for rebuilding and for emotional support is positively correlated with the demand for used cars after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. On the other hand, communication about anxiety and information seeking correlates negatively with the demand for used cars.     

Multi-Sector Model of Tradable Emission Permits

This paper presents a multi-sector model of tradable emission permits, which includes oligopolistic and perfectly competitive industries. The firms in oligopolistic industries are assumed to exercise market power in the tradable permit market as well as in the product market. Specifically, we examine the effects of the initial permit allocation on the equilibrium outcomes, focusing on the interaction among these product and permit markets. It is shown that raising the number of initial permits allocated to one firm in an oligopolistic industry increases the output produced by that firm. Under certain conditions, raising a “clean” (less-polluting) firm’s share of the initial permits can lead to reductions in both the product and permit prices. We discuss criteria for the socially optimal allocation of initial permits, considering the trade-off between production inefficiency and consumer benefit.     

Spatial Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta in China

This paper examines the spatial externality from foreign direct investment on domestic firms. Using Chinese firm‐level data for 2004, and after accounting for an endogeneity problem, we find that foreign firms generate a significantly positive spillover effect on the regional productivity of domestic firms in similar counties and industries. Estimating a spatial‐autoregressive model, we further show that such local spillovers could transmit to domestic firms in other counties and industries through interactions among domestic firms. However, these spatial multiplier effects decline with distance, thereby reducing the foreign direct investment spillover effects for domestic firms in distant locations.     

Dynamic analysis of innovation and international transfer of technology through licensing

This paper develops a quality-ladder type dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous innovation and technology licensing as a major source of international technology transfer in developing countries. Examining the dynamic characteristics of the model fully, we explore the short- and long-run effects of both an improvement in the probability of reaching a licensing agreement with a given effort and an increase in the license fee rate. The model shows that the former promotes innovation and technology transfers in both the long and short run, while the latter discourages them.     

Special Quotes Invoke Autocorrelation in Japanese Stock Prices*

It is reported in the present paper that 1‐min returns on TOPIX have exhibited significant autocorrelation at 5‐min intervals since 1997/1998. Special quotes that are issued whenever there is a price jump in excess of a predetermined band seem to be the source of this autocorrelation, because these have been automatically updated at 5‐min intervals since August 1998 and have appeared during the first 30 min from opening. Individual stock returns also exhibit fifth‐order autocorrelation, but this disappears when the data with special quotes are excluded from the sample. Therefore, the autocorrelation is caused by the special quotes: a type of market microstructure noise.