WHAT IT TAKES TO SOLVE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT PROBLEM

This paper uses a structural multi‐country macroeconometric model to estimate the size of the decrease in transfer payments (or tax expenditures) needed to stabilize the U.S. government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. It takes into account endogenous effects of changes in fiscal policy on the economy and in turn the effect of changes in the economy on the deficit. A base run is first obtained for the 2013:1–2022:4 period in which there are no major changes in U.S. fiscal policy. This results in an ever increasing debt/GDP ratio. Then transfer payments are decreased by an amount sufficient to stabilize the long‐run debt/GDP ratio. The results show that transfer payments need to be decreased by 2% of GDP from the base run, which over the 10 years is $3.2 trillion in 2005 dollars and $4.8 trillion in current dollars. The real output loss is 1.1% of baseline GDP. Monetary policy helps keep the loss down, but it is not powerful enough in the model to eliminate all of the loss. The estimates are robust to a base run with less inflation and to one with less expansion. (JEL E17)     

SAILING THROUGH THIS STORM? CAPITAL FLOWS IN ASIA DURING THE CRISIS

The 2007–2009 crisis has led to an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows. Asian economies were, however, relatively unaffected: the contraction in their capital flows was limited to the most acute phase of the crisis in late 2008, followed by a rapid rebound. We show that this reflects both Asia's structural characteristics, such as limited reliance on international banking, and Asian specificities in the form of a limited impact of international bank exposure on capital flows. We also find evidence of a connection between the use of reserves and variations in net private capital inflows.     

The Contribution of International Graduate Students to US Innovation

The impact of international students in the United States on innovative activity is estimated using a model of idea generation. Results indicate that the presence of foreign graduate students has a significant and positive impact on both future patent applications and future patents awarded to university and non-university institutions. Our central estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the number of foreign graduate students would raise patent applications by 4.5%, university patent grants by 6.8% and non-university patent grants by 5.0%. Thus, reductions in foreign graduate students from visa restrictions could significantly reduce US innovative activity. Increases in skilled immigration also have a positive, but smaller, impact on patenting.     

Managerial bonding and stock liquidity: An analysis of dual-class firms

Given the decision to create a second class of stock through a dual-class structure, we propose that management is more (less) likely to create a liquid secondary market for both classes of shares the lower (higher) its willingness to tie its personal wealth to firm performance. If market makers recognize this relation, they should assign a higher likelihood to trades motivated by superior information in shares of firms that list both classes of stock and a lower likelihood for firms that list only one class of stock pursuant to recapitalization. Additionally, they should assign a lower likelihood to trades motivated by superior information in shares of IPOs that choose a dual-class structure and list only one class relative to IPOs that remain single-class. Our empirical tests based on IPOS and recaps between 1985 and 1988 provide support for these propositions.     

Incentive Effects of Rate-of-Return Regulation in Hong Kong: Reply

Journal of Regulatory Economics -