Economics at the FTC: Office Supply Retailers Redux,Healthcare Quality Efficiencies Analysis,and Litigation of an Alleged Get-Rich-Quick Scheme

We discuss in this essay three of the matters on which economists in the Bureau of Economics (BE) at the Federal Trade Commission have worked this past year. BE revisited familiar ground in the first matter, a proposed merger of office supply retailers. The second part of the essay considers efficiency claims in health care mergers, with focus on the acquisition of a physician group by a health care system in Idaho. The final part of the essay discusses empirical work that was undertaken by the Bureau to investigate claims made by marketers of an alleged get-rich-quick scheme.     

Automatic neural network modeling for univariate time series

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are an information processing paradigm inspired by the way the brain processes information. Using neural networks requires the investigator to make decisions concerning the architecture or structure used. ANNs are known to be universal function approximators and are capable of exploiting nonlinear relationships between variables. This method, called Automated ANNs, is an attempt to develop an automatic procedure for selecting the architecture of an artificial neural network for forecasting purposes. It was entered into the M-3 Time Series Competition. Results show that ANNs compete well with the other methods investigated, but may produce poor results if used under certain conditions.     

Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes

This paper uses a logit model to test whether voters will alter their support for incumbents in state level elections, specifically gubernatorial and state house and senate elections, when local (i.e., county) economic conditions are observed. The results signify that voters do hold the incumbent party responsible for economic conditions. Furthermore, voters tend to place more emphasis on unemployment levels than on real personal income indicating that incumbent politicians might want to engage in policies that put people to work rather than on policies that raise income. The results also suggest that voters did not hold their state house and senate representative as responsible for local economic conditions as they did the governor.     

Modeling Conditional Yield Densities

Given the increasing interest in agricultural risk, many have sought improved methods to characterize conditional crop-yield densities. While most have postulated the Beta as a flexible alternative to the Normal, others have chosen nonparametric methods. Unfortunately, yield data tends not to be sufficiently abundant to invalidate many reasonable parametric models. This is problematic because conclusions from economic analyses, which require estimated conditional yield densities, tend not to be invariant to the modeling assumption. We propose a semiparametric estimator that, because of its theoretical properties and our simulation results, enables one to empirically proceed with a higher degree of confidence.     

别再救通用汽车

奥巴马总统决定从税款中再拨出301亿美元,以救济通用汽车,对此,他的解释是:当前美国正身处经济严重衰退与金融危机并存的时代,艰难异常,而这些企业的崩塌会殃及无数美国人,而不仅限于汽车产业内部.     

Convergent cultural evolution and multilevel selection: Reply to comments on Janet Landa’s ‘The bioeconomics of homogenous middleman groups as adaptive units: Theory and empirical evidence viewed from a group selection framework’

The comments on Janet Landa’s (J Bioecon 10(3):259–278, 2008) target article provide a fascinating snapshot of how multilevel selection theory is perceived across several disciplines. When we focus on the zone of agreement among the commentators, Landa’s article provides an important example of convergent cultural evolution. When we focus on the zone of disagreement, we find a snapshot of the current status of the group selection controversy that goes beyond narrow scientific issues and requires a ‘truth and reconciliation’ process to resolve, as discussed in my series of blogs titled “Truth and Reconciliation for Group Selection” (Wilson , 2009) and briefly summarized here.      

Intellectual property rights and licensing: An econometric investigation

Intellectual Property Rights and Licensing: An Econometric Investigation. — Licensing has been virtually ignored in the econometric literature on intellectual property rights (IPRs). We discuss theoretical effects of IPRs on decisions to license technology internationally. Based on a theoretical model we specify a reduced-form econometric equation relating the volume of U.S. licensing to measures of technology protection and other variables in licensee nations. The model is applied to data for 23 countries in a panel covering 1985, 1990, and 1995. The results indicate that countries with stronger patent rights attract larger arm’ s-length volumes of licensed technology, though we are unable to distinguish between licensing quantities and values.     

Black-White Inequality in Reading and Math Across K-12 Schooling: A Synthetic Cohort Perspective

While much has been written on the racial gap in achievement, few national studies have assessed the gap’s trajectory over K-12 schooling. The reason for this is understandable—most national data sets do not contain respondent information for this entire educational period. I utilize survey data from three national data sets containing White and Black students to document the trajectory of reading and math inequality between school entry and the end of high school. An attempt to clarify these observed patterns is made by assessing changes in the score distributions of these students across grade level, and examining how Black score distributions would fare if held to the White score distributions. Findings suggest that efforts to equalize achievement disparities must not only focus on “bringing the bottom up”, but also on keeping the top Black achievers on pace with the top White achievers across grade level.