Revisiting the ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment : A conversation

In 1991, futurist Bruce E. Tonn proposed a ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment to the US Constitution. His proposed ‘Court of Generations’ lacked punitive powers but, hopefully, would have sufficient legitimacy to counteract extreme present-minded thinking evident in US political processes and institutions. Although Tonn's ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment has been well received in the futures community, who else has heard of it? Otherwise, has it made any difference? How can the cumbersome and nonfuturistic amendment procedure in the US Constitution generate a futures-oriented ‘Court of Generations’? And for those who sincerely look forward to a ‘Court of Generations,’ precisely what kind of tactically savvy visionary leadership will give the ‘Court of Generations’ any chance of being approved? During 1997, Vincent Kelly Pollard engaged Dr. Tonn in an Internet conversation aimed at clarifying these issues.     

Controlling for Burnout in Estimating Mortgage Prepayment Models

Burnout is a consequence of unobservable predictive variables. This paper describes a methodology for estimating mortgage prepayment models which corrects for burnout. The paper generalizes the approach of Deng, Quigley, and Van Order (Econometrica, 68, 275–307, 1998) and Stanton (Rev. Finan. Stud.8, 677–708, 1995) in modeling the impact of unobservable variables as a probability distribution. The estimator is applied to a sample of loan histories and the results compared to a conventional logit analysis of the data. Predictions and simulations from both models are compared to illustrate the properties of the new estimator.     

Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model

It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex-post comparison against actual out-turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.     

The Impact of Industry Structure and Penalty Policies on Incentives for Compliance and Regulatory Enforcement

This paper examines the optimal fine for violations of environmental regulations, taking into account financial constraints facing regulated firms and the hierarchical structure of regulatory enforcement. Contrary to the existing literature, which suggests that maximal fines are sub-optimal, we find that the optimal fine is either the maximum amount the firm can afford to pay or zero (i.e., no regulation). The impact of a change in industry structure on the optimal fine, firm compliance and regulatory resource strategies is considered. We identify conditions under which the equilibrium level of regulatory resources decreases with an increase in the number of firms in the industry.     

Young in class: Implications for inattentive/hyperactive behaviour of Canadian boys and girls

Using data from the Statistics Canada National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY), this paper investigates the impact of school entry age on inattentive/hyperactive behaviours. We employ both an across‐provinces and time difference‐in‐differences approach and a within‐province regression discontinuity design. We find that being young in class causes greater inattentive/hyperactive behaviour, exacerbating any inattentive/hyperactive behaviour exhibited prior to school entry. These results also hold in sibling fixed effect models. We do not find gender differences in the effects, although since boys are more likely to be inattentive/hyperactive at school entry, they are more affected. These effects persist into early adolescence.     

Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32

The 2013 Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen and Robert Shiller for their work on empirical asset pricing. Hansen's primary contribution to the cited work was the development of the generalised method of moments (GMM), a statistical method that has proved such a valuable tool for testing the validity of empirical asset pricing models. The public announcement of the award also acknowledges the wider impact of GMM on empirical analysis in economics and beyond, referring to the 1982 Econometrica paper in which Hansen introduced the method as ‘one of the most influential in econometrics’. In this paper, we reflect on how the GMM‐based inference framework has evolved since 1982, reviewing developments on four main issues: model diagnostic testing, moment selection, identification and inference in misspecified models. We also illustrate the broader influence of GMM on econometrics by briefly exploring the connections between GMM and three other estimation methods: indirect inference, moment inequality based techniques, and a group of techniques that can be presented equivalently within either the generalised empirical likelihood or info‐metric frameworks.     

Reproducing “rhetrickery” in online fertility marketing: harnessing the “rhetoric of the possible”

ABSTRACT

This article addresses the gap in research on visual and narrative persuasion in online fertility marketing contexts and reveals their reliance on rhetorical ruses embedded in the language of “choice” and “empowerment”. We assess four websites targeting women and men who have experienced infertility and expose their “digirhetrickery”, or use of deceptive rhetoric in digital space which exploits gendered stereotypes of the female body in ways that ultimately mislead their target markets about assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) and the “liberatory” potential they offer. We advance digital rhetoric as an analytical method to the field of consumer research in order to engage in a reflexive analysis that reveals these underhand ideological operations. As “authorial voices” and narrative agents in digital advertising discourse are more cunningly subterranean, this study shows how the instrumentalization of “consumer empowerment” has become increasingly hyperbolic with particularly problematic consequences for infertile women consumers.