Estimating the Probability of Informed Trading

Using a new empirical model, I estimate the probability of trades being generated by privately informed traders. Inference is drawn on a trade‐by‐trade basis using data samples from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The modeling setup facilitates in‐depth analysis of the estimated probability of informed trading at the intraday level and for stocks with different levels of trading activity. The most important empirical results are: (a) the intradaily pattern of the inferred probability of informed trading is highly correlated with the intradaily pattern of observed quoted spreads, (b) differences in the magnitude of quoted spreads across volume categories are not exclusively related to differences in the level of informed trading, and (c) private information is incorporated faster in the quotes for high‐volume stocks than in the quotes for low‐volume stocks.     

强化内控管理 确保安全发展

本文围绕商业银行如何实现“安全发展”这一命题，在深入剖析商业银行生存与发展历史教训的基础上，阐明了应切实强化三个方面的经营理念，并从实际出发，提出了三项强化内控管理的有效措施，旨在从根本上构建确保安全发展的长效机制。     

The Impact of Mexico's Retraining Program on Employment and Wages

This article analyzes the impact and effectiveness of the Mexicanlabor retraining program for unemployed and displaced workers—Programade Becas de Capacitación para Trabajadores (PROBECAT).The strategy followed is to compare the post-training labormarket experiences of trainees with those of a comparison group—amatched sample of unemployed individuals who were eligible for,but did not participate in, PROBECAT. The results of this exercisesuggest that participation in PROBECAT reduced the mean durationof unemployment for both men and women trainees and increasedthe monthly earnings of men, but not of women. The results alsoindicate that the post-training earnings effect varied systematicallyby level of education attained, with the largest earnings increases(of about 28 to 37 percent) found for men with six to twelveyears of education.     

The amenity value of woodland in Great Britain: A comparison of economic estimates

Forests produce benefits over and above the revenue yielded from timber and other wood based products. Most important among these may be the recreational benefits for visitors, which have been examined in several studies. Total benefits for residents are perhaps more accurately captured in property values since, ceteris paribus, the price of a house reflects willingness to pay to live near an environmental amenity such as a forest to gain access to it, and also the amenity (non-use) value of the forest in so far as it creates a pleasant landscape. However, the total non-priced value of forestry is not the sum of HPM and ITCM benefit estimates. Recreational benefits will typically be less, and will be subsumed in the HPM estimates, since the hedonic price is partly induced by the value of recreational access.     

Short sales, price pressure, and the stock price response to convertible bond calls

The announcement of a convertible bond call is associated with an average contemporaneous abnormal stock price decline of 1.75% and an ensuing price recovery in the conversion period. A price fall and the subsequent recovery suggest price pressure as the explanation for the announcement effect. However, in general the option to convert is not exercised early and hence, the increase in the number of shares outstanding does not occur at the announcement date. Instead, this paper argues and provides evidence that hedging-induced short selling causes at least part of the short-run price pressure.     

市场新进入者的星级酒店战略定位——以丽江国际大酒店为例

本通过对即将开业的丽江国际大酒店核心竞争力的分析，探讨高星级酒店的战略定位问题，提出了丽江国际大酒店的经营战略和途径。将资源配置效能、运行机制、创新能力和企业化有机融合，系统培育酒店核心竞争力，使酒店在有限的条件下，集中有限的资源和能力，实现局部最优。     

中小企业财务管理创新之我见

面对经济全球化和中国加入世贸的新形势 ,中小企业财务管理创新滞后 ,已经严重影响了中小企业的快速、健康发展。本文阐述了中小企业财务管理方面存在的问题 ,剖析了这些问题产生的原因并在此基础上有针对性地提出了解决相应问题的对策。     

管理层持股与公司绩效:一项基于深圳股票市场的实证研究

本文在现有理论和实证分析框架基础上,以在深圳证券交易所上市的331家公司为研究对象,运用非线性回归模型对上市公司管理层持股与经营绩效的相关性进行了实证检验。实证结果表明,公司绩效与管理层持股之间存在三次曲线关系:管理层持股在0%—0·1376%之间时,公司绩效随管理层持股比例的增加而下降;管理层持股在0·1376%—0·7462%之间时,公司绩效随管理层持股比例的增加而上升;管理层持股超过0·7462%时,公司绩效再次随着管理层持股比例的增加而下降。     

Cross-national differences in trade union membership in OECD countries

This article examines how trade union membership varies across 16 OECD countries in the 1980s. Higher density of membership is found to be associated with a higher degree of centralisation of wage bargaining, higher percentage of employees covered by collective bargaining, a larger public sector and a more leftist party of government.     

历史与现在——国际商法的演进对我们的启示

文中对国际商法从古代商法、中世纪商人法到近代商法国内化以及现代商人法的历史演进过程进行研究,并从纵向和横向的角度解读了国际商法的发展带给我们的启示。