Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality

This article is a critical survey of models designed for pricingfixed-income securities and their associated term structuresof market yields. Our primary focus is on the interplay betweenthe theoretical specification of dynamic term structure modelsand their empirical fit to historical changes in the shapesof yield curves. We begin by overviewing the dynamic term structuremodels that have been fit to treasury or swap yield curves andin which the risk factors follow diffusions, jump-diffusion,or have "switching regimes." Then the goodness-of-fit of thesemodels is assessed relative to their abilities to (i) matchlinear projections of changes in yields onto the slope of theyield curve; (ii) match the persistence of conditional volatilities,and the shapes of term structures of unconditional volatilities,of yields; and (iii) to reliably price caps, swaptions, andother fixed-income derivatives. For the case of defaultablesecurities we explore the relative fits to historical yieldspreads.     

Measures used to evaluate industrial marketing activities

Given the importance of controlling marketing efforts, a study was conducted of industrial manufacturers to determine the extent of their use of various measures to evaluate different marketing activities. The predominate measures used for evaluation were sales volume with much less utilization of profitability, productivity, and expense measures.     

THE ROLE OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMIC REFORM

In South Korea, as in some other troubled Asian economies, banks and large public corporations have been run more in the interest of the government and the controlling share-holder group than to maximize efficiency and overall shareholder wealth. Any serious attempt to reform the South Korean economy must thus include significant changes in its system of corporate governance. After discussing in general terms how corporate ownership and control can affect economic performance, this article examines the corporate governance institutions that prevail in different countries, with particular attention to the U.S., Japan, and Germany. From such comparative analysis it then develops a set of criteria for appraising the effectiveness of corporate governance systems that are applied to the specific case of South Korea. The article concludes with number of suggestions for reforming the South Korean corporate governance system, including:

• 1 greater legal protection for minority shareholders from transactions involving potential conflicts of interest; and
• 2 strengthening of the incentives of management and large corporate holders, such as house or main banks, to maximize value (as the author notes, “charging management or the board with a legal mandate to ‘balance’ the interests of various constituencies or stakeholders is merely to diminish any legally enforceable responsibility to shareholders”).

As the article notes in closing, the main beneficiaries of such governance reforms will not be the new shareholders–including those foreign investors who might be persuaded to buy the stocks–but rather the existing owners, whose shares will command a higher price from “outside” investors. And the greatest beneficiary will be the South Korean nation as a whole, since the resulting improvements in corporate performance and reductions in cost of capital will increase productivity and international competitiveness.     

Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

The overhang of debt (private and surging public) is perhaps the principal reason why recessions following financial crises are so deep and lasting. Frequently, a wave of international financial and banking crises is followed by a wave of sovereign defaults. This is the case of the Eurozone crisis today. How might a sovereign debt default of, say, Greece affect the Eurozone? The nightmare scenario is a complete unraveling of the euro. The euro can still be saved, but perhaps only with the weaker countries undergoing major restructuring of their sovereign debt.     

Effects of the 1979 gasoline shortages on Philadelphia housing prices

Conventional theory predicts that transportation cost to a big-city central business district is an important determinant of housing prices. If this is true, the sudden rise in gasoline price following the Iranian revolution in 1979 could have caused a relative housing-price shift in central and peripheral neighborhoods. This paper looks for such an effect by fitting hedonic price functions in selected neighborhoods at varying distances from downtown Philadelphia, and testing for a relative shift at the time of the gasoline shortage. The results suggest that the energy shortage's effects may have been focused disproportionately on a few already revitalizing neighborhoods.     

Fifteen Theses on Classroom Teaching

The Southern Economic Association initiated a lecture series on teaching to be presented at its annual meeting. This paper, given on November 24, 2000, was the first such lecture. The editor invited the author to publish the lecture in Southern Economic Journal. Portions of the paper are the fruits of the author's more than 30 years of experience teaching economics. Parts of the paper are based on writings regarding pedagogy outside the discipline of economics. The paper puts forward 15 theses about teaching economics in the classroom. The theses range from propositions about why economics is a particularly difficult subject to teach to suggestions about how the classroom teaching of economics can be improved.     

A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse

This paper shows that the "price wars during booms" logic of Rotemberg and Saloner ( American Economic Review , vol. 76, 1986, 390–407) provides an explanation of contagious currency crises. The idea is as follows. When a group of countries relies on exports to a common foreign market, pressures for competitive devaluations arise. In response, competing exporters peg their exchange rates to the currency of their export market. However, it must be in each country's self-interest to adhere to its peg, and a common adverse external shock can make an existing (implicitly) cooperative arrangement unenforceable. Maintaining the arrangement requires a collective devaluation that reduces the unilateral incentive to devalue.     

Market and Welfare Effects of the U.S. Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act

This paper analyzes the market and welfare effects of the United States Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act enacted in 2001. The act mandates meat packers to report their transactions daily to a government agency and requires the agency to make a summary of those transactions available to the public through the Mandatory Livestock Meat Market News Reports. Considering the case of an imperfect packer cartel that uses trigger price strategies, this paper examines the impact of market information provided by the reports on equilibrium livestock slaughter and the welfare of the groups involved and identifies the determinants of the socially optimal level of information. A key result of the paper is that, even when facilitating collusion among packers, increased market information can be social welfare enhancing.