Futures studies as social science: An analytic scheme and a case study

Several authors in the futures studies field have in their efforts to improve quality argued that better methods must be developed, which makes sense. But the theoretical awareness in the substantive questions upon which the studies are based is probably more important.

In that light, the primary objective of this article is to formulate a method of how fundamental social issues (views on society and humanity) are addressed in a future study, apply it to one empirical case (telecommunications company Ericsson) and thereafter analyze the method's strengths and weaknesses.

The study shows that the method gained a satisfactory foothold in the material and it has an appropriate depth in relation to desired efficiency. This work has shown that the analytical method is relevant and adequate to understand and describe the orientation and contents of futures studies. Therewith, the study has generated greater awareness of fundamental assumptions in future studies that can contribute to enhancing their quality.     

Ad ratings when a marketer runs two commercial messages in one television program episode

Advertisers sometimes run two messages in one television program episode. We examine the ad-ratings consequences in passively recorded data. Previous findings suggest that repetition can reduce ad affect and attention duration. Viewers might therefore tend to zap the second message for one brand. If second messages are targeted for zapping, marketers might run only one message per episode. We observe channel changing near the start and end of ad breaks, but no targeted second-message zapping emerged. Marketers might therefore continue to buy two ad units in particularly interesting shows. Interestingly, networks separated the two messages for one brand into early and late program segments. In some shows, this separation may influence the relative ratings of the two messages. For example, the first ad had higher ratings in some shows that followed a much more popular program on the same network. However, the second ad had higher ratings in some game and reality shows with strong audience build-up in late running time. But in each of these situations, the pooled rating for the two ads did not differ from the program’s average ad rating. In sum, our data suggest that marketers don’t provoke targeted ad zapping by running two messages in a program episode.     

Women on boards and greenhouse gas emission disclosures

We apply institutional and board capital theory to examine whether women on boards are associated with disclosure and quality of corporate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related reporting. We examine the research problem in Australia in a period when no requirements existed for listed companies to appoint female directors or to report GHG emissions. This environment allows us to examine the association between women on boards and GHG emissions related disclosure in annual and sustainability reports in a voluntary setting. We find that companies with multiple female directors make GHG emissions related disclosures that are of higher quality.     

Bank productivity in China 1997–2007: Measurement and convergence

This study examines the productivity growth of the nationwide banks of China and a sample of city commercial, banks for the ten years to 2007. Using a bootstrap method for the Malmquist index, estimates of the total factor productivity growth are constructed. Five different models of inputs and outputs based on variants of the Intermediation and Production approaches and non-performing loans are treated as a bad output, are examined for the purpose of arriving at a robust measure. The productivity growth of the state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) is compared with the joint-stock banks (JSCBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs). In general, average TFP growth has been neutral over the period for the SOCBs and JSCBs but positive for the CCBs in the second part of the period. Efficiency gains (catch-up) were obtained through cost reduction and technical innovation was associated with greater diversification of revenue away from interest earnings. The opening up of the banking market has not led to a discernible improvement in bank productivity growth.     

The influence of instructor gender on learning and instructor ratings

This paper uses two large databases to determine if students of a given gender learn more from instructors of the same gender and if instructors of a given gender receive higher ratings from students of the same gender compared to students of the opposite gender. The Indiana University (IU) data set was collected over a six-year period from the fall of 1984 to the spring of 1990 for associate instructors teaching introductory microeconomics and macroeconomics courses. A subset of the data collected in norming the third edition of the Test of Understanding College Economics is the TUCE III data set. The results of this study do not lend support for a positive gender-match role model effect concerning student learning and instructor ratings. This effect appeared only in the IU micro data set but did not appear on a consistent yearly basis. The effect did not appear at all in the IU macro data or either of the TUCE III data sets.     

Social preferences and voting: An exploration using a novel preference revealing mechanism

Public referenda are frequently used to determine the provision of public goods. As public programs have distributional consequences, a compelling question is what impact, if any, do social preferences have on voting behavior. This paper explores this issue using laboratory experiments wherein voting outcomes lead to a known distribution of net benefits across participants. Preferences are elicited using a novel Random Price Voting Mechanism (RPVM), which is more efficient in eliciting preferences than a dichotomous choice referendum but gives consistent results. Results suggest that social preferences, in particular a social efficiency motive, lead to economically meaningful deviations from selfish voting choices and increase the likelihood that welfare-enhancing programs are implemented.     

Auctioned IPOs: The US evidence

Between 1999 and 2007, WR Hambrecht completed 19 initial public offerings (IPOs) in the US using an auction mechanism. We analyze investor behavior and mechanism performance in these auctioned IPOs using detailed bidding data. The existence of some bids posted at high prices suggests that some investors (mostly retail) try to free-ride on the mechanism. But institutional demand in these auctions is very elastic, suggesting that institutional investors reveal information in the bidding process. Investor participation is largely predictable based on deal size, and demand is dominated by institutions. Flipping is at most as prevalent in auctions as in bookbuilt deals. But, unlike in bookbuilding, investors in auctions do not flip their shares more in “hot” deals. Finally, we find that institutional investors, who provide more information, are rewarded by obtaining a larger share of the deals that have higher 10-day underpricing. Our results therefore suggest that auctioned IPOs can be an effective alternative to traditional bookbuilding.