Capital adjustment cost and inconsistency in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects

After the seminal work of Nickell (1981), a vast literature demonstrates the inconsistency of ‘conditional convergence’ estimator in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects when the time horizon (T) is short but the sample of countries (N) is large. Less attention is given to the economic root of inconsistency of the fixed effects estimator when T is also large. Using a variant of the Ramsey growth model with long‐run adjustment cost of capital, we demonstrate that the fixed effects estimator of such models could be inconsistent when T is large. This inconsistency arises because of the long‐run adjustment cost of capital which gives rise to a negative moving average coefficient in the error term. Income convergence will be thus overestimated. We theoretically characterize the order of this inconsistency. Our Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the size of the bias is substantial and it is greater in economies with higher capital adjustment costs. We show that the use of instrumental variables that take into account the presence of the negative moving average term in the error will overcome this bias.     

Corporate Governance and the Information Content of Earnings Announcements: A Cross‐Country Analysis

Using firm‐level data from 23 developed markets, we document a positive association between overall firm‐level governance quality and the informativeness of earnings announcements measured by abnormal stock return variance. This finding is robust after controlling for the potential endogeneity of firm‐level corporate governance. Further analyses reveal that firms with strong governance show little evidence of earnings management, appoint Big 4 auditing firms, and attract analyst following, implying a positive link between strong corporate governance and the information quality of earnings announcements. Finally, there is some evidence that the relation between firm‐level governance and market reactions around the announcements exists only in countries characterized by a transparent information environment and strong legal investor protection.     

Japan’s trade agreements aren’t “window dressing” after all

ABSTRACT

We analyze eight of the 15 existing Japanese economic partnership agreements (EPAs) from 1997 to 2012. First, we construct bilateral measures of trade barriers for Japan and its partners using input-output and trade data. Next, we conduct panel regressions using those measures and find that when Japan forms an EPA, the tariff-equivalent barrier between the two countries falls approximately 2% to 3%. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this suggests that Japan’s EPAs may not be merely “window dressing” after all. This has implications for larger trade agreements in the works, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).     

Uncertainty and the Choice of Policy Instruments: A Note On Baumol and Oates Propositions

Baumol and Oates' propositions, the irrelevancy of benefit uncertainty and the importance of cost uncertainty on the choice between a tax and a system of marketable permits, are limited to a large-number case in which the opportunities for victims of pollution to participate in a permit market are non-existent. However, with the evolution of environmental groups and coalitions of victims in neighborhoods, the large-number case can easily transform into a small-number case. This paper shows that when the pollution standard, set at what appears to be optimal ex ante, is excessively lenient, the system of marketable permits offers such groups a flexibility to buy pollution permits in a competitive market and destroy them until the optimal solution is realized. In the reverse situation, however, Baumol and Oates propositions are unambiguously valid.     

General Equilibrium Impacts of VAT and Corporate Income Tax in Thailand

International Advances in Economic Research - In this paper, a computable general equilibrium model of Thailand is constructed in order to assess economy-wide impacts of reforms in the value added...     

Welfare impacts of equal-yield tax reforms in the UK economy

A multisectoral dynamic general equilibrium tax model with and without announcement effects for open and closed capital markets is used to evaluate efficiency gains and transitional effects from equal-yield tax reforms for seven different taxes in the UK economy. Impacts of an unanticipated tax reform on investment, capital accumulation, output and employment are compared to those of anticipated tax reforms. Households, producers, traders, investors and the government are found to be more capable of adjusting their economic behaviour when tax announcements are made in advance. In equal-yield tax experiments welfare gains up to 1.4% of base year GDP can occur by removing distortions in taxes. Welfare loss of up to 2.05% of it can happen if a less distortionary tax, such as the labour income tax is replaced by more distortionary taxes. These simulation results hold whether the capital markets are closed or open.     

Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County

The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect.     

Real Interest Rate Parity: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis Using Wavelets

In this article, long-run and short-run relationships among real interest rates in G-7 countries are empirically analyzed. The evidence suggests the existence of long-run relationships among these real interest rates. However, the long-run relationship is not an equality relationship. Short-run relationships are estimated using dynamic simultaneous equation models. They reveal that the real interest rates of non-U.S. G-7 countries react and adjust to long-run disequilibrium conditions. A more detailed analysis based on wavelet transform indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships; however, strict interest rate parity does not seem to hold true.JEL Classification: C22, E43, G15     

General Equilibrium Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Welfare of Households in South Asia

Impacts of fiscal and monetary policies are assessed in an open economy two sector multi‐household general equilibrium tax model with money for South Asia. Despite impressive growth rates there is evidence for alarming gaps in the distribution of income among households that require very careful design of economic policies. Generally the impacts of fiscal expansions are positive for all categories of households under the flexible price system but the gains are much higher for households in the upper income group than for those in the bottom. In theory the equilibrium relative prices guarantee the optimal allocation of resources in such economy. Simulation results show that demand, output and employment are sensitive to the preferences of consumers, confidence of producers and sector specific production technologies. Monetary policy is super‐neutral under flexible price regime but can complement fiscal policy well when aggregate prices are made sticky. Combination of monetary and fiscal policies in this manner can have extensive impacts in efficiency and redistribution. Higher taxes distort incentives to work and investment from richer households slowing down the economy. This reduces the welfare level of both rich and poor. Flexibility in prices enhances the market mechanism and makes the fiscal policy more effective and efficient.     

Cross-country IPOs: What explains differences in underpricing?

We study the impacts of country-level information asymmetry, investors' home-country bias, effectiveness of contract enforcement mechanisms, and accessibility of legal recourse on IPO underpricing in 36 countries around the globe. We find evidence consistent with all four of our hypotheses. First, we find a positive and significant effect of country-level information asymmetry on IPO underpricing. Second, our empirical evidence is consistent with the agency-cost-based explanation of IPO underpricing. We find that lower cost to entice the block holders, measured by domestic investors' home-country bias, reduces IPO underpricing. Third, we find that effective contract enforcement mechanisms help to reduce IPO underpricing. Finally, we find a positive relation between the accessibility of legal recourse and IPO underpricing.