FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

We construct a small open‐economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for South Africa with nominal rigidities, incomplete international risk sharing and partial exchange rate pass‐through. The parameters of the model are estimated using Bayesian methods, and its out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is compared with Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR), classical VAR and random‐walk models. Our results indicate that the DSGE model generates forecasts that are competitive with those from other models, and it contributes statistically significant information to combined forecast measures.     

Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices

A considerable number of farmer-owned ethanol plants have been built in the past few years, with many more planned. In part, farmers' investment in ethanol plants is an attempt to increase grain prices in their local market. We examined this issue by estimating the impact on local grain prices of twelve ethanol plants that opened from 2001 to 2002. We find that these new ethanol plants increased local grain prices, but the impact was not uniform around the plant. Markets downstream from a new plant, where prices tend to be higher, experienced a smaller price impact from the ethanol plant. On average across plants, corn prices increased by 12.5 cents per bushel at the plant site, and some positive price response was felt 68 miles away from the plant.     

A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE MENTAL HEALTH OF CHILDREN*

We estimate the parameters of a dynamic multiperiod model where parents with one child periodically decide whether their child uses mental health services. In this model, parents receive utility from household consumption and from their child's mental health. Mental health services may improve the child's mental health, but may be costly in terms of reduced household consumption and direct disutility. We find that mental health services can slightly improve a child's mental health, but the use of services accounts for a small fraction of the improvement of the mental health of the children in our sample.     

Capacity reduction,quota trading and productivity: the case of a fishery*

We present the first ex post study that quantitatively analyses the effects of a licence buy‐back and enhanced quota trading on the profitability and productivity of individual vessels in a fishery. Using firm‐level data and a profit index decomposition method, we find that small and large vessels and three different trawler fleets all experienced substantial productivity gains in the year immediately following a licence buy‐back and the establishment of a quota brokerage service. The apparent ongoing benefits of the buy‐back and increased quota trading over the sample period are in stark contrast to the generally unfavourable long‐term outcomes commonly associated with vessel buy‐backs in input‐controlled fisheries.     

A “matching auction” for targets with heterogeneous bidders

When potential bidders for a target firm are heterogeneous, standard auction methods for selling the firm are not optimal, as they treat the bidders symmetrically. In a two-bidder contest, one way to discriminate against the stronger bidder is to impose an order of moves. A simple “matching auction” can achieve this objective, in which the “strong” bidder is asked to make a first and final offer, and the other bidder is asked to match this bid. We consider two sources of bidder heterogeneity in a common-value setting: differences in initial toeholds, and asymmetric effects of the bidders' private signals on value. The matching auction results in a higher expected selling price than the standard auctions when the asymmetry is sufficiently large. Other properties of the matching auction are discussed.