Overconfidence and Resistance to Abandoning Unprofitable Capital Budgeting Projects: The Effects of Autonomy,Internal Audit,and Accountability

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of managers' autonomy in choosing a capital budgeting project has on their confidence in managing the project. Furthermore, this study examines the role that internal audit reports and accountability play in mitigating the impact of autonomy on managers' resistance to abandoning unprofitable capital budgeting projects. Building on motivated reasoning theory, we hypothesize and find that managers who are given autonomy to choose their own projects are more confident that their projects will be successful than managers who are assigned the projects by their superiors. This study also shows that internal audit reports and accountability are effective mechanisms for reducing the influence of prior decisions on managers' resistance to abandoning unprofitable projects.     

Asymmetric Correlation and Volatility Dynamics among Stock, Bond, and Securitized Real Estate Markets

We apply a multivariate asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model to daily index returns of S&P500, US corporate bonds, and their real estate counterparts (REITs and CMBS) from 1999 to 2008. We document, for the first time, evidence for asymmetric volatilities and correlations in CMBS and REITs. Due to their high levels of leverage, REIT returns exhibit stronger asymmetric volatilities. Also, both REIT and stock returns show strong evidence of asymmetries in their conditional correlation, suggesting reduced hedging potential of REITs against the stock market downturn during the sample period. There is also evidence that corporate bonds and CMBS may provide diversification benefits for stocks and REITs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that default spread and stock market volatility play a significant role in driving dynamics of these conditional correlations and that there is a significant structural break in the correlations caused by the recent financial crisis.     

Volume,volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets

This paper examines the relationship between option trading activity and stock market volatility. Although the option market is uniquely suited for trading on volatility information, there is little analysis on how trading activity in this market is linked to stock price volatility. The bulk of the discussion tends to focus on whether trading activity in the stock market is informative about stock volatility. To analyze the information in option trading activity for stock market volatility, a sample of 15 stocks with the highest option trading volume is selected. For each stock, it is noted that the trading activities in the put and call option markets have significant explanatory power for stock market volatility. In addition, the results indicate that the call option trading activity has a stronger impact on stock volatility compared with that of the put options. Our results demonstrate that information and sentiment in the option market is useful for the estimation of stock market volatility. Also, the significance of the effects of option trading activity on stock price volatility is observed to be comparable to that of stock market trading activity. Furthermore, the persistence and asymmetric effects in the volatility of some stocks tend to disappear once option trading activity is taken into account.     

一场安静的革命

印度的精英教育体制在过去几十年中一直源源不断地生产着一流的科学家，工程技术人员和管理人员，这些精英们是推动20世纪90年代印度信息技术腾飞的关键力量。但是很少有人注意到，最近一个时期，印度的初等教育正在发生一场安静的革命。如果革命取得成功，将使印度青年一代掌握改进生产率的技术，并进而减少疾病、高出生率、饥饿、贫困所造成的沉重负担，全社会对于性别、种姓、部族和残疫人的态度也将发生深刻的变化。     

When does FDI matter? The roles of local institutions and ethnic origins of FDI

How foreign direct investment (FDI) affects a host environment is a much discussed yet less understood topic of salience for international business managers, policy makers and researchers. Using panel data from 287 Chinese cities over the period 1999–2005, our study assesses (1) the multiple impacts of FDI in both positive and negative domains, (2) the role of local institutional development in moderating these impacts, and (3) whether the moderating effects of institutions differ depending upon the origins of the incoming investment (ethnic- versus non-ethnic-linked). Our analysis shows that indeed, FDI is a double-edged sword: it enhances the host city's economic growth, labor productivity and innovation but it also causes employment reduction and pollution in host cities. Moreover, the host city's institutional development is found to enhance the positive impacts of FDI and reduce its negative ones. Interestingly, the moderating effect is smaller for ethnic-linked FDI than for non-ethnic-linked FDI. As the first comprehensive attempt to unravel the role of institutional development in moderating the ambiguous impacts of FDI in multiple domains, this study confirms that a host's ability to absorb the benefits of FDI while curtailing its associated costs is both plausible and pivotal. As our world becomes flatter and FDI more entrenched in a host's economic and social development, this study provides important implications.     

Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach

Most empirical studies of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates exclude the dimension of conditional volatility shocks. In this paper, we search for evidence of conditional volatility in the quarterly real GDP of greater China, which comprises the economies of Mainland China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), and Taiwan. The widely accepted exponential GARCH model of Nelson [Econometrica 59 (1991) 347–370] is employed to capture the possible existence of asymmetric conditional volatility in real GDP. It is found that negative real GDP shocks may induce a greater impact on future volatilities compared with positive shocks of the same magnitude. Policy implications from our findings are discussed.     

WHAT MOTIVATES GOING PRIVATE?: AN ANALYSIS OF AUSTRALIAN FIRMS

We investigate going private transactions in Australia between 1988 and 1991. Approximately ten percent of all takeovers during this period are instances of going private. In contrast to studies of similar transactions in the United States, we find no direct evidence to support a free cash flow explanation for going private, although going private is frequently preceded by the threat of a takeover offer. However, the free cash flow explanation for going private may not be applicable in Pacific Basin countries where exchange-traded investment activity is in relatively high growth sectors and foreign ownership accounts for a large part of those investment sectors where managerial abuse of free cash flow has been alleged.     

Nash equilibrium without mutual knowledge of rationality

Summary. In a Nash equilibrium, players' rationality is mutual knowledge. However, both intuition and experimental evidence suggest that players do not know for sure the rationality of opponents. This paper proposes a new equilibrium concept, cautious equilibrium, that generalizes Nash equilibrium in terms of preferences in two person strategic games. In a cautious equilibrium, players do not necessarily know the rationality of opponents, but they view rationality as infinitely more likely than irrationality. For suitable models of preference, cautious equilibrium predicts that a player might take a “cautious” strategy that is not a best response in any Nash equilibrium. Received: January 28, 1998; revised version October 2, 1998     

DOES THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE MATTER FOR DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS?

We find that sensitivity of fund flows and fund performance are both related to participants' right to choose their investments in defined contribution plans. Under the Mandatory Provident Fund system of Hong Kong, both employers and employees are required to contribute to a retirement account. Originally, employees' investment choices were restricted to a subset of funds chosen by their employers. The system was later modified so that employees are allowed to invest in any fund within the system. We present evidence that flows of fund have become more sensitive to past fund performance after this policy change, and that average fund performance in the system has also improved. Based on the improvement in fund performance, we estimate the accumulated cost of the lack of choice to be around 10% of the current total asset value of the system. (JEL G14, G18)     

Calibration of Gaussian heath, Jarrow and Morton and random field interest rate term structure models

We show how the recently introduced Gaussian random field interest rate term structure models can be calibrated accurately and quickly to market caps and swaptions prices. We show how the calibrated random field model can be approximated arbitrarily closely with a multi-factor Gaussian Heath, Jarrow and Morton model. We argue that the Gaussian random field model is easier to calibrate and can be used as an indirect way to calibrate multi-factor Gaussian Heath, Jarrow and Morton interest rate models.This work was carried out when the author was at the Financial Options Research Centre, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. I wish to thank Stewart Hodges for many helpful discussions and comments and Martin Cooper of Tokai Bank, Europe, for supplying the data used in this paper. I also wish to thank the Economic and Social Research Council and FORC for funding. An earlier version of this paper entitled Multi-Factor Gaussian HJM Approximation to Kennedy and Calibration to Caps and Swaptions Prices was presented at the 9th Annual Conference, FORC., Warwick Business School, September 1996. Another version also appears in the author's Ph.D. thesis. I am grateful to the helpful comments provided by Marti Subrahmanyam and the two anonymous referees. All errors are my own and the views expressed in no way reflect the opinion of my employer.