RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN COUNT DATA MODELLING: THEORY AND APPLICATION

Abstract. This paper deals with statistical methods for modelling individual behavior when the endogenous variable is a nonnegative integer. Examples are the number of children, the number of job changes or the number of shopping trips in a given period. Several approaches—Poisson, robust Poisson, negative binomial (NEGBIN), NEGBIN _k , hurdle Poisson, truncated-at-zero Poisson—are discussed with a focus on specification, estimation, and testing. An application to labor mobility data illustrates the gain obtained by carefully taking into account the specific structure of the data.     

Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany

Zusammenfassung Konjunkturzyklen in offenen Volkswirtschaften. Stilisierte Fakten für ?sterreich und Deutschland. - Die Verfasser versuchen, den ?sterreichischen und den deutschen Konjunkturzyklus mit Hilfe des von Hodrick und Prescott vorgeschlagenen Filters zu charakterisieren. Bei Anwendung dieser Filtertechnik ergibt sich eine Reihe stilisierter Fakten, die mit der Theorie des realen Konjunkturzyklus vereinbar sind. Die Hauptergebnisse sind, da? die Variabilit?t des BSP (BIP) in Deutschland h?her ist als in ?sterreich, da? die Geldpolitik in Deutschland wichtiger ist, da? Reall?hne und Arbeitsstunden (Besch?ftigung) in Deutschland positiv korreliert, in ?sterreich aber azyklisch sind und da? Sparen und Investitionen positiv korreliert sind.

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Résumé Les fluctuations conjoncturelles aux économies ouvertes. Des faits stylisés pour l’Autriche et l’Allemagne. - Dans cette étude, les auteurs essaient de caractériser les fluctuations conjoncturelles de l’Autriche et de l’Allemagne en utilisant le filtre proposé par Hodrick et Prescott. L’application de cette technique produit une liste des faits stylisés qui se rapportent à la littérature des fluctuations conjoncturelles réelles. Les résultats principaux montrent que la variabilité du produit national brut est plus haute en Allemagne qu’en Autriche: que la politique monétaire est plus importante en Allemagne; que les salaires réels et les heures de travail (emploi) sont en corrélation positive en Allemagne mais acycliques en Autriche; et que l’épargne et l'investissement sont en corrélation positive.

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Resumen El ciclo coyunturalen laseconomias abiertas: hechosestilizados para Austria y Alemania. - En este trabajo se intenta caracterizar el ciclo coyuntural austriaco y alemán utilizando el filtro propuesto por Hodrick y Prescott. La aplicación de esta técnica de filtro produce una lista de hechos estilizados que son relacionados con la literatura sobre el ciclo real. Los resultados más importantes son que la variabilidad del PBN (PBI) es más alta en Alemania que en Austria, que la política monetaria es màs importante en Alemania, que los salarios reaies y las horas (empleo) están correlacionadas positivamente en Alemania pero acíclicalmente en Austria, y que el ahorro y la inversión están correlacionados positivamente.

     

Corporate growth convergence in Europe*

It is widely believed that the implementation of the SingleMarket Programme in 1992 has induced a transformation in industrialstructures across Europe. Some people believe that it has drivenEurope towards a common industrial structure. However, usinga newly available database covering nearly every firm above100 employees in 14 European countries over the time period1994 to 1998, the hypothesis of convergence in corporate sizeswithin industries is unambiguously rejected by the data. A Gibratprocess best describes the growth of very large and mature firms,but smaller and younger firms depart from this prediction. Pre-post1992 comparisons using another database for larger listed firmsreveal that the speed of convergence actually decreased post-1992.     

Causes and consequences of civil strife: micro-level evidence from Uganda

To bridge the gap between case studies and highly aggregatecross-country analyses of civil unrest, we use data from Ugandato explore determinants of civil strife (as contrasted to theftand physical violence) at the community level, as well as thepotentially differential impact of these variables on investmentand non-agricultural enterprise formation at the household level.We find that distance from infrastructure (a proxy for scarcityof economic opportunities and government investment), assetinequality (social tension), presence of cash crops (expropriablewealth), and lower levels of human capital (ability to takeadvantage of opportunities in the ‘regular’ economy)all increase the propensity for civil strife. Furthermore, civilstrife, in marked contrast to violence and theft, reduces investmentand non-agricultural enterprise startups.     

Employment impacts of cleaner production – evidence from a German study using case studies and surveys

The study assesses net employment effects of technical progress, which can be expected by the ongoing transition from end‐of‐pipe technologies towards cleaner production. Empirical evidence is presented on the basis of case studies and firm data including a telephone survey from German industry. The main result is that the transition from end‐of‐pipe technologies to cleaner production leads to a net creation of jobs, which is however restricted to a only small number of firms and to the group of highly skilled labour. Eco‐innovations, like other innovations, are non‐neutral. The demand for skilled and highly skilled labour rises while the demand for unskilled labour decreases. Synergies between environmental, labour market and innovation policy are apparent but they are however small and specific. The exploitation of these synergies requires the design of specific policy programmes differentiating between types of eco‐innovation. The promotion of product‐integrated environmental measures should be more successful if new products complement older ones, while process‐integrated environmental measures should be more successful if consumers' demand is more price elastic. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

The transformation of Czech society: retrospect and prospect

The 6th Annual IEA Hayek Memorial Lecture, given in London, 17 June 1997, sponsored by Deloitte & Touche.