Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications

This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified. We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework. The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science and technology indicators and enables the identification of possible fields which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies. Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations. Finally, the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight.     

Green promotes the dirtiest: on the interaction between black and green quotas in energy markets

Tradable black (CO₂) and green (renewables) quotas gain in popularity and stringency within climate policies of many OECD countries. The overlapping regulation through both instruments, however, may have important unintended consequences. Based on theoretical analysis we show that a green quota imposed on top of a black quota promotes power production by the dirtiest technologies as compared to a black quota regime only.     

Regional economic impact of oil spills

This article demonstrates an approach of coupling an environmental model to I-O analysis which aims to quantify the regional economic impact of an environmental accident. The model is implemented with the data of a potential oil spill interacting with the salmon aquaculture industry in Northern Norway. The production loss in salmon aquaculture and the regional income impact is computed and discussed. The approach used in this article could be a model for estimating the regional socio-economic impact of environmental factors like water and air pollution.     

A Conflict Case Approach to Business Ethics

Departing from frequent use of moral conflict cases in business ethics teaching and research, the paper suggests an elaboration of a moral conflict approach within business ethics, both conceptually and philosophically. The conceptual elaboration borrows from social science conflict research terminology, while the philosophical elaboration presents casuistry as a kind of practical, inductive argumentation with a focus on paradigmatic examples.     

User-oriented product innovation - Some research findings

Successful product innovation requires information about user needs. The provision of such information is a question both of attitudes and methods. A number of leading companies in Europe, Japan and the U.S.A. demonstrate the importance of a market-oriented attitude and close contact with users. In-depth studies in Germany, Italy and Norway have revealed an array of tools that are available for the systematic assessment of existing and future needs.Most firms will benefit from a stronger market orientation. However, if one moves too far in this direction, societal needs may be neglected and technological opportunities missed. The aim should be a balanced orientation where the needs of all stakeholders are taken into consideration.     

Remote operation in environmentally sensitive areas: development of early warning indicators

Exploration and production of oil and gas in certain sensitive areas such as the Barents Sea and Lofoten is controversial and further expansion depends on the ability to avoid harmful spills. One way of improving the ability to avoid such spills is to use early warning indicators. The objective of the work presented in this paper is to describe and compare strengths and weaknesses of different approaches for the development of early warning indicators. The approaches that have been compared are: safety performance-based methods; risk-based methods; incident-based methods; and resilience-based methods. There are pros and cons with all methods. All methods are very favorable with respect to some characteristics and at the same time very unfavorable to some other characteristics. They are also different in terms of scope and depth of analysis. This suggests that we should be flexible with respect to the choice of methods, and preferably use more than one method. Thus, the main conclusion is that it is favorable to have the possibility to use several different methods for the establishment of early warning indicators.     

Perspectives of Risk Sharing

In this paper we present an overview of the standard risk sharing model of insurance. We discuss and characterize a competitive equilibrium, Pareto optimality, and representative agent pricing, including its implications for insurance premiums. We only touch upon the existence problem of a competitive equilibrium, primarily by presenting several examples. Risk tolerance and aggregation is the subject of one section. Risk adjustment of the probability measure is one topic, as well as the insurance version of the capital asset pricing model. The competitive paradigm may be a little demanding in practice, so we alternatively present a game theoretic view of risk sharing, where solutions end up in the core. Properly interpreted, this may give rise to a range of prices of each risk, often visualized in practice by an ask price and a bid price. The nice aspect of this is that these price ranges can be explained by "first principles", not relying on transaction costs or other frictions. We also include a short discussion of moral hazard in risk sharing between an insurer and a prospective insurance buyer. We end the paper by indicating the implications of our results for a pure stock market. In particular we find it advantageous to discuss the concepts of incomplete markets in this general setting, where it is possible to use results for closed, convex subspaces of an L 2 -space to discuss optimal risk allocation problems in incomplete financial markets.     

The Nash bargaining solution vs. equilibrium in a reinsurance syndicate

We compare the Nash bargaining solution in a reinsurance syndicate to the competitive equilibrium allocation, focusing on uncertainty and risk aversion. Restricting attention to proportional reinsurance treaties, we find that, although these solution concepts are very different, one may just appear as a first order Taylor series approximation of the other, in certain cases. This may be good news for the Nash solution, or for the equilibrium allocation, all depending upon one's point of view.

Our model also allows us to readily identify some properties of the equilibrium allocation not be shared by the bargaining solution, and vice versa, related to both risk aversions and correlations.     

Exploring the interaction of firm-level change and national institutional environments in shaping employment and union relations: a comparative case study of four European airlines

Drawing on the example of the airline industry, this paper explores in a longitudinal comparative case study the question of how firm-level changes and national institutional environments interact in shaping employee and union relations. Adding to previous research in comparative institutional analysis and comparative employment relations, we illustrate that the way in which industry pressures and national-level effects play out to influence employee and union relations depends on firm-level changes, mainly in the form of firm growth, acquisitions and the foundation of new subsidiaries. We show in particular that depending on firm-level changes, the very same firm might engage differently with a given institutional context at different points in time. Hence, our work illustrates the importance of firm growth, acquisitions and the foundation of new subsidiaries in explaining the shifting interaction between the firm and its institutional environment, and its implications for changing employee and union relations within firms.