Climate Policies and Induced Technological Change: Which to Choose, the Carrot or the Stick?

Policies to reduce emissions of greenhousegases such as CO₂, will affect the rate andpattern of technological change in alternativeenergy supply and other production processes.Imperfections in markets for non-pollutingtechnologies imply that a decentralised economydoes not deliver a socially optimal outcome,and this could justify policy interventionssuch as subsidies. This paper considers thewelfare effects of technology subsidies as partof a carbon abatement policy package. We arguethat the presence of spillovers in alternativeenergy technologies does not necessarily implythat subsidy policies are welfare improving. Weillustrate this point in the context of ageneral equilibrium model with two forms ofcarbon-free energy, an existing alternative energy which is a substitute for carbon-basedfuels, and new vintage energy which providesa carbon-free replacement for existing energyservices. Subsidisation of alternative energyon the grounds of spillover effects can bewelfare-worsening if it crowds-out new vintagetechnologies.     

Option pricing under fast-varying and rough stochastic volatility

Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatilities associated with financial time series exhibit short-range correlations. This entails that the volatility process is very rough and its autocorrelation exhibits sharp decay at the origin. Another classic stylistic feature often assumed for the volatility is that it is mean reverting. In this paper it is shown that the price impact of a rapidly mean reverting rough volatility model coincides with that associated with fast mean reverting Markov stochastic volatility models. This reconciles the empirical observation of rough volatility paths with the good fit of the implied volatility surface to models of fast mean reverting Markov volatilities. Moreover, the result conforms with recent numerical results regarding rough stochastic volatility models. It extends the scope of models for which the asymptotic results of fast mean reverting Markov volatilities are valid. The paper concludes with a general discussion of fractional volatility asymptotics and their interrelation. The regimes discussed there include fast and slow volatility factors with strong or small volatility fluctuations and with the limits not commuting in general. The notion of a characteristic term structure exponent is introduced, this exponent governs the implied volatility term structure in the various asymptotic regimes.     

Do Labour Market Programmes Speed up the Return to Work?*

We evaluate the impact of labour market programmes on unemployment durations in Norway, by means of a distribution‐free mixed proportional competing risks hazard rate model. We find that programme participation, once completed, improves employment prospects, but that there is often an opportunity cost in the form of a lock‐in effect during participation. The average net effect of programme participation on the length of the job search period is found to be around zero. For participants with poor employment prospects, the favourable post‐programme effects outweigh the negative lock‐in effects.     

Equilibrium Pricing in the Presence of Cumulative Dividends Following a Diffusion

The paper presents some security market pricing results in the setting of a security market equilibrium in continuous time. The theme of the paper is financial valuation theory when the primitive assets pay out real dividends represented by processes of unbounded variation. In continuous time, when the models are also continuous, this is the most general representation of real dividends, and it can be of practical interest to analyze such models.
Taking as the starting point an extension to continuous time of the Lucas consumption-based model, we derive the equilibrium short-term interest rate, present a new derivation of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model, demonstrate how equilibrium forward and futures prices can be derived, including several examples, and finally we derive the equilibrium price of a European call option in a situation where the underlying asset pays dividends according to an Itô process of unbounded variation. In the latter case we demonstrate how this pricing formula simplifies to known results in special cases, among them the famous Black–Scholes formula and the Merton formula for a special dividend rate process.     

Issues in front‐end decision making on projects

The importance of the front‐end decision‐making phase in projects is being increasingly recognized—the need to “do the right project” is on a par with “doing the project right.” This area is underrepresented in the literature, but there are a number of key themes that run throughout, identifying key issues or difficulties during this stage. This article looks at some of these themes and includes: the need for alignment between organizational strategy and the project concept; dealing with complexity, in particular the systemicity and interrelatedness within project decisions; consideration of the ambiguity implicit in all major projects; taking into account psychological and political biases within estimation of benefits and costs; consideration of the social geography and politics within decision‐making groups; and preparation for the turbulence within the project environment, including the maintenance of strategic alignment.     

Sustainability as Adaptability

Most corporations now view sustainability as a key requirement for competitive advantage, but few claim to have achieved it. One of the key obstacles separating intention from execution is that the sustainability frameworks employed by companies tend to be insufficiently clear, precise, or comprehensive to guide decision making. One of the most pressing challenges for corporate leaders today is, of course, to sustain the economic viability of the core businesses. But given the implicit “beyond business” focus of most sustainability efforts, corporate executives would be better served by a more integrated, holistic framework—one that enables them to make tradeoffs among the economic, social, and ecological aspects of business. This article introduces such a framework—one that redefines sustainability as the ability of companies to adapt to change in three different spheres of operation—ecological, social, and economic—with a near‐term as well as a longer‐term planning horizon. Without such adaptation, business models become obsolete for reasons that can range from economic failure, to competitive inferiority, to social or ecological limits. This ability to adapt can be measured and valued by using the BCG Adaptive Advantage Index, a composite measure of corporate performance during market downturns. The BCG analysis also shows that although the most adaptive companies tend to report lower profits and have lower values during periods of relative stability, such companies perform consistently better over full cycles. Creating social and ecological value alone doesn't automatically confer economic rewards, but—with the right business model and capabilities—it can. The authors explore some of the business model archetypes that successfully achieve this “co‐optimization.”     

How stakeholders view the impacts of international ICT standards

Assessing the impacts of standards is a challenging task. A survey instrument was developed aiming at assessing standards impacts from the point of view of stakeholders in the standard development process. The survey was administered to members of ETSI (European Telecommunication Standards Institute), ITU (International Telecommunication Union) and CEN/ISSS (European Committee for Standardisation/Information Society Standardisation System) standards committees. Many of the findings either countered the predictions of much current theory or otherwise raised new grounds to question many common assumptions about the impacts of standards. Although many variations were found according to whether the standards were formal, informal or proprietary, several strong general findings emerged also. Overall, the findings indicate that cost-related impacts are less relevant to stakeholders than various market shaping aspects. Stakeholders perceived the main positive impacts in terms of the ability to increase product variety and to develop new global outsourcing opportunities. Finally, the impacts of formal standards were rated significantly higher and more positively than the other types of standards. It was concluded that the changes in the institutional landscape of standardisation in the ICT sector represent a challenge both for the theory of standardisation and for the development of adequate methodologies to assess their impacts.     

Gains and structural effects of exploiting scale-economies in Norwegian dairy production

In this paper, we present calculations of the economic gains in terms of reduced costs by exploiting scale‐economies in dairy production in Norway, and the effect this would have had on the number of farms. We also explore whether or not optimal scale and unexploited scale‐economies change over time due to scale‐augmenting technical change. The analysis is based on homothetic cost functions estimated by means of data for individual dairy farms for the period 1972–1996. For 1972, we find that, by full exploitation of scale‐economies, the costs could have been reduced by almost 40%, while the number of farms would have been reduced by more than 85%. The number of small farms has been substantially reduced in the period considered. This fact, combined with small scale‐augmenting technical change, implies that the gains and structural effects of exploiting scale‐economies have decreased over time. In 1996, costs could have been reduced by close to 30% by full exploitation of scale‐economies, while the number of farms would have been reduced by slightly more than 70%. Thus, both gains and structural effects are substantially less than in 1972. Nevertheless, the calculated gains for 1996 make almost 5 billion NOK. This corresponds almost exactly to the total public support to the dairy farms in 1996. The unexploited scale‐economies are largely due to the agricultural policy. Thus, a substantial share of the same can be considered as part of the‘price’ the Norwegian society has to pay for this policy. In addition, there are likely to be large hidden costs of this policy due in particular to the quota system and other direct production regulations. They imply that technical innovations and other efficiency‐improving investments requiring increased production to be profitable are not carried out. This is the more likely explanation for the extremely poor efficiency development in Norwegian dairy production in the period studied.     

Cost-Optimal Scale of Child Care Institutions

In this paper we explore the scale properties in the operation of child care institutions. The main issue is whether or not there exists a technically optimal scale of operation. Our results, based on a homothetic production function model and data from a sample of Norwegian child care institutions, suggest that a technically optimal scale does exist. This confirms some of the results recently obtained for US child care institutions.     

ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE LUCAS PRICING FORMULA

In order to find the real market value of an asset in an exchange economy, one would typically apply the Lucas formula, developed in a discrete time framework. This theory has also been extended to continuous time models, in which case the same pricing formula has been universally applied.
While the discrete time theory is rather transparent, there has been some confusion regarding the continuous time analogue. In particular, the continuous time pricing formula must contain a certain type of a square covariance term that does not readily follow from the discrete time formulation. As a result, this term has sometimes been missing in situations where it should have been included.
In this paper, we reformulate the discrete time theory in such a way that this covariance term does not come as a mystery in the continuous time version.
In most real life situations dividends are paid out in lump sums, not in rates. This leads to a discontinuous model, and adding a continuous time framework, it appears that our framework is a most natural one in finance.
Finally, the Gordon growth formula is extended from its deterministic origin, to the present model of uncertainty, and it is indicated how this can be used to to possibly shed some light on the volatility puzzle.