Unemployment hysteresis and the natural rate of vacancies

On the basis of macro data from 10 OECD countries, I find that the job vacancy rate outperforms the unemployment rate as a reliable measure of domestic inflationary pressure. Moreover, while the rate of unemployment affects inflation primarily through its difference, the vacancy rate operates through a level effect as well. In most countries, a unique equilibrium rate of vacancies seems to coexist with a drifting equilibrium rate of unemployment. I show that this result is consistent with existing theories of unemployment hysteresis that focus on depreciation of human capital and search activity during unemployment spells. First version received: October 1997/Final version received: June 2001     

Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Feedback Mechanisms and Distributional Effects in the Oil Market

We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakage and the “green paradox”, but also the distributional effects for oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, with the magnitude depending on the oil demand elasticity. In the benchmark simulations, we calculate that almost half of the energy savings may be lost to a direct rebound effect and an additional 10% to oil price adjustments. In addition, there is substantial intersectoral leakage to other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, international carbon leakage will be significant if policies are not implemented in all regions; we estimate leakage rates of 35% or higher when only major consuming regions implement fuel economy policies. Non-OPEC producers will to a larger degree than OPEC producers cut back on its oil supply as a response to fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs.     

Sufficient conditions applied to an optimal control problem of resource management

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, by solving an interesting problem in the theory of exhaustible resources, it is exemplified how direct sufficiency conditions should properly be used in optimal control problems. The motivation for this aspect of the paper is the almost complete negligence in the economic literature of dealing properly with sufficiency conditions. Second, an important point in the discussion of J. Aarrestad (Scand. J. Econom., 81 (1979), 522–565) is supplemented.     

文茨皮尔斯自由港：欲开辟欧亚大陆桥新的桥头堡

欧盟包括拉脱维亚十分重视新亚欧大陆桥这条国际大通道的畅通与发展,拉脱维亚的文茨皮尔斯自由港从地理位置以及本身所具有的功能上都具备欧亚大陆桥西行桥头堡的条件。因为从莫斯科到拉脱维亚的铁路受到欧盟的支持和资金帮助。在欧洲的众多的国营和民营铁路中只有得到欧盟的承认和支持的铁路,其运力才能得到保障。在前苏两时期,拉脱维亚的文茨皮尔斯自由港就是前苏联重要的进出大西洋的港口,而现在俄罗斯的货物仍然选择从文茨皮尔斯自由港运到欧洲各地或从欧洲进口各种货物。     

An Equilibrium Model of Catastrophe Insurance Futures and Spreads

This article presents a valuation model of futures contracts and derivatives on such contracts, when the underlying delivery value is an insurance index, which follows a stochastic process containing jumps of random claim sizes at random time points of accident occurrence. Applications are made on insurance futures and spreads, a relatively new class of instruments for risk management launched by the Chicago Board of Trade in 1993, anticipated to start in Europe and perhaps also in other parts of the world in the future. The article treats the problem of pricing catastrophe risk, which is priced in the model and not treated as unsystematic risk. Several closed pricing formulas are derived, both for futures contracts and for futures derivatives, such as caps, call options, and spreads. The framework is that of partial equilibrium theory under uncertainty.     

Market-oriented product innovation at Høyang Polaris and Jøtul

This report is concerned with an action research project on market oriented product innovation at Høyang Polaris and Jøtul, where a system for assessment of user needs has been planned and implemented. Based on experience from the project, a model has been developed for the introduction of a need assessment system comprising problem analysis, planning, information, training, demonstration, application, and development.The introduction of need assessment methods may be handled as an operational problem or treated as a strategic issue. When handled as an operational problem, systematic need assessment can be introduced as a project or treated as a process integrated with the daily activities of the product innovation staff.The practical operation of a need assessment system in product innovation projects involves definition of a target group, selection of one or several need assessment methods, implementation of the study, and formulation of the need specification.The responsibility for need assessment studies may be assigned to a special staff unit or to the employees participating in the product innovation process.     

Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach

By using a dynamic factor model, we can substantially improve the reliability of real-time output gap estimates for the U.S. economy. First, we use a factor model to extract a series for the common component in GDP from a large panel of monthly real-time macroeconomic variables. This series is immune to revisions to the extent that revisions are due to unbiased measurement errors or idiosyncratic news. Second, our model is able to handle the unbalanced arrival of the data. This yields favorable nowcasting properties and thus starting conditions for the filtering of data into a trend and deviations from a trend. Combined with the method of augmenting data with forecasts prior to filtering, this greatly reduces the end-of-sample imprecision in the gap estimate. The increased precision has economic importance for real-time policy decisions and improves real-time inflation forecasts.     

Job search incentives and job match quality

We examine the impacts of time-limited unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) on the duration and outcome of job search in Norway. We use a comprehensive simultaneous equations model accounting for i) the duration of unemployment spells; ii) their outcomes, iii) subsequent employment stability; and iv) the earnings level associated with the first job. We find that time invested in job search pays off in form of higher earnings once a job match is formed. ALMP raises the probability of eventually finding a job as well as expected earnings, but at the cost of lengthening job search.     

Regional differences in small firm entry in manufacturing industries: Lower Saxony, 1979–1991 †

This paper is an empirical study of inter-regional and inter-temporal variations in entry of new firms using longitudinal data covering all manufacturing establishments in Lower Saxony between 1979 and 1991. Patterns of entry are reported for sixteen regions based on gross rates of entry (number of new firms) and entry intensities (shares of employees). An empirical model is applied to detect regional characteristics that are highly correlated with entry. Pooling of cross-section and time-series data allows for control of influences of varying macroeconomic conditions and unobserved regional characteristics that turned out to be important. Small firm entry tends to be positively related to high overall economic growth, and to be higher in regions where both the small firm employment share and the level of wealth are high while the wage rate is low. We find no evidence for a negative impact of the business tax rate or for a positive effect of regional subsidies.