The Image of Spain as Tourist Destination Built Through Fictional Cinema

Fictional cinema is one of the cultural agents that shapes the international image of each country. It colonizes spectators' imagery, and it can influence their choice of tourist destinations. Spanish cinema's international diffusion has allowed the exhibition of movies that spread and renew the image of Spain in different ways. In this respect, we propose a three‐fold typology of films focusing our attention on their content and the ways in which they build the image of Spain: Icon Films, Pastiche Films, and Tourist Poster Films. These films may stimulate the increase of a cultural tourism very different from the traditional one that inspired many to come to Spain mainly looking for sunny beaches.     

On exact pricing of FX options in multivariate time-changed Lévy models

In this paper we discuss foreign-exchange option pricing in conditionally Gaussian models, namely in the variance-gamma and in the normal-inverse Gaussian models. It happens that in the both models closed-form pricing is attainable. The used method developes the one of the work by Madan et al. (Eur Finance Rev 2:79–105, 1998) where the price of the European call is primarily derived. The obtained formulas are based on values of the Gauss and the Appell hypergeometric functions.     

A Theory of Brinkmanship, Conflicts, and Commitments

Many conflicts and negotiations can be viewed as dynamic gamesin which parties have no commitment power. In our model, a potentialaggressor demands concessions from a weaker party by threateningwar. The absence of commitment makes a continuous stream oftransfers a more effective appeasement strategy than a lump-sumtransfer. As long as both sides have constant marginal utilityof consumption, it is possible to construct a self-enforcingpeace agreement even if transfers shift the balance of power.When marginal utility of consumption is decreasing, a self-enforcingpeace agreement may not be feasible. The bargaining power ofthe potential aggressor increases dramatically if she is ableto make probabilistic threats, for example, by taking an observableaction that leads to war with a positive probability. This "brinkmanshipstrategy" allows a blackmailer to extract a positive streamof payments from the victim, even if carrying out the threatis harmful to both parties. Our results are applicable to environmentsranging from diplomacy to negotiations within or among firmsand are aimed to bring together "parallel" investigations inthe nature of commitment in economics and political science.     

Industrialisation in a small grain economy during the First Globalisation: Bulgaria c. 1870–1910

In Bulgaria the share of secondary production in GDP remained constantly low between c. 1870–1910. To explain the country's exceptionally weak growth, we use endogenous and unified growth theory. Gerschenkron and Palairet blame a self-sufficiency-oriented peasant economy for rising labour and raw material costs in industry, which destroyed the competitiveness of Bulgarian manufacturing and prevented industrialisation. We refute the existence of any long-lasting cost increases in industry after 1878. Quite the opposite was true: the expansion of Bulgaria's secondary sector was restricted by detrimental changes on the demand side, for which peasants were not responsible. Recent research claims that, around 1910, Bulgarian textile production was significantly lower than in 1870. Our study brings to light new data and information that clearly disproves this view. Until around 1910, a booming modern manufacturing sector more than replaced the country's proto-industries’ textile outputs, which had plummeted dramatically during the early years of the newly founded Bulgarian state. However, as the rise of modern manufacturing in textile production coincided with the decline of the entire large sector of traditional manufacturing, secondary production as a whole stagnated.     

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks' capital buffers in South Africa

South Africa's fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, although the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations to test how sovereign risk premia affect capital buffers, while controlling for variables identified in the literature, such as size of banks and the economic cycle. Unlike other studies, we use actual capital buffers. We show that these are substantively different to the proxy buffers calculated using the common approach in the literature, indicating that results based on proxy measures should be interpreted with caution. Our overall results show a positive relationship between the sovereign risk premium and capital buffers. This suggests that banks are accumulating capital to mitigate against fiscal and other domestic policy risks. It is likely that this is contributing to higher lending rates.     

Sentimental Sustainability: Does What Companies Say Tell More Than What Companies Do?

Based on a sample of more than eleven thousand unique 10-K reports of US companies filed with SEC in period 2013 to 2018, this study examines the relationship between actual sustainability performance of companies, evaluated by MSCI ESG performance scores, and the extent and the scope of environmental, social, and governance information disclosure in their annual reports. The study shows empirical evidence supporting the signalling theory view of voluntary disclosure of ESG information in annual reports for most industries, while environmentally unfriendly companies belonging to the Mining industry division show excessive reporting behavior favoring environmental topics, which is consistent with incentives to improve public image and mitigate social, political, and legal risks in line with the legitimacy theory of information disclosure. When differentiating between forward-looking and non-forward-looking ESG statements, the study shows that companies providing more forward-looking ESG information in annual reports show better next-year ESG performance. This study implements established content analysis techniques with focus on ESG reporting and performance, building up on the study of Baier, Berninger, and Kiesel (2020) that proposed an ESG-tailored dictionary for textual analysis purposes.     

Long-term regional convergence in Mexico: A new look

This paper explores the convergence hypothesis of Mexican states with the national level and with one another from 1940 to 2015. Interpreting convergence as catching-up, we also capture other types of regular evolution, namely, invariance of the income gap over time, permanent absence of the gap, and steadily increasing gap (deterministic divergence). As a tool of econometric analysis, we use a novel model that describes convergence by asymptotically decaying trends and covers other types of evolution as particular cases. The results obtained suggest one or other type of regularity to be peculiar to roughly ca. 40% of income gaps both with the national level and between states. However, convergence is observed only in 6% to 15% of cases. Regarding convergence at the national level, an additional analysis by three 50-year subperiod shows that in many cases the type of evolution changes for the same state from one subperiod to another. Analyzing convergence between states, we find that convergence between neighboring states is more frequent than between other states; however, the effect of the neighborhood is not too strong.     

Poverty decompositions with counterfactual income and inequality dynamics

Traditional poverty accounting decomposes changes in a country's poverty headcount ratio into changes in income and inequality. We argue that this approach is unsatisfactory from the perspective of policy analysis because it compares a country in two points of time without taking the country's initial situation, and hence its potential for poverty reduction, into account. We thus suggest comparing traditional poverty decompositions with a counterfactual situation. This counterfactual indicates what a country starting from its initial situation could be expected to achieve in terms of income, inequality, and, hence, poverty developments. We construct those counterfactuals by modeling income and inequality trends characterized by convergence and a “Kuznets” relationship between inequality and development. Parameters in those relationships are estimated using PovcalNet survey data from 144 countries and we construct our counterfactual poverty predictions for 71 developing countries. While there is overall a tight relationship between actual developments and counterfactuals, we identify several cases, where both deviate from each other and discuss the policy implications. We also check for commonalities in differently performing countries and find that those who fell particularly short of expectations often underwent political transition and state fragility.